The descriptive statistics, including mean (SD) of SV rate as well as estimates from the LGM are shown in Table 1, separately for region and gender. The raw SV’s prevalence rates in the table reveal that Australia (for men and women) had the highest and Europe (for men and women) and South America (for men) countries had the lowest SV’s prevalence rates during these years. In all regions, the raw SV’s prevalence rates were higher in women than men.
In the LGM estimates column of Table 1, both the estimated intercepts and slopes can help us know more about SV’s prevalence trends in these regions. The intercepts represent the estimated overall mean level of the initial SV’s prevalence rate and the slopes show the average rate of change in SV’s prevalence rate over time within each region. A positive and negative slope reveals that the rate had an incremental and decremental trend over time, respectively.
For instance, the estimates for men in Asia (Intercept=1117.8, Slope=-1.6) state that the initial SV’s prevalence rate in this region was 1117.8 in 100000 persons in 1993, and the prevalence rate has a decremental trend with a slope of 1.6 during 1993 to 2017 in every six years period. Regarding the estimated slope in table 1, with the exception of African men, SV’s prevalence rate has declined across all continents and in both sexes. The most decline is in the SV’s prevalence rate among North American women (rate of 90.1 per 100,000 persons), followed by women in South America (rate of 32.12 per 100,000 persons).Also, the lowest decline was in the prevalence of SV among Australian men (rate of 0.02 per 100,000 persons).
The last row in Table 1 gives us information about the intercept and trend of SV’s prevalence rate, separately for men and women, globally. Regarding this, one can conclude that SV’s prevalence rate in women was greater than men (2816.1 vs 1193.9 per 100000 persons). In addition, the trend of SV’s prevalence rate in women was more decreased than men (2.1 vs 1.6 per 100000 persons).
As shown in Table 1, except in North America and Global (for women), the trend coefficient (slope) has not been significant in other regions (p-value>0.05). As can be seen, the coefficient of -2.1, for women in global, is significant, while the coefficient of -32.12 is not significant for South America women. The most important reason for the lack of significance is the small number of countries in the regions, and is not necessarily the reason for insignificance of the coefficient value.
Subsequently, countries were classified according to the HDI; countries with high HDI (>=0.7), and also countries with low HDI (<0.7) (12). The descriptive statistics, and estimates from the LGM, separately for countries with high and low HDI, are shown in table 2. The raw SV’s prevalence rates in Table 2 reveal that countries with high HDI (for men and women) had the higher SV’s prevalence rates comparing with countries with low HDI during these years. Totally, the raw SV’s prevalence rates were higher in women in both high- and low-income countries. The LGM estimate column in Table 2 shows the declining trend in men SV is visible in both high and low HDI countries. Also it shows the prevalence of SV against women in countries with low HDI has increased (rate of 5.1 per 100,000 persons).
Finally, using LGMM, countries around the world were categorized according to the trend of SV rate changes, separately for men and women. According to these results, countries were classified into six classes with various SV’s prevalence trends. In other words, the countries with similar trend has been included in same class. These classes are presented using zoning maps in Figure 1. In this figure, countries with similar colors on the map have had similar trends of SV’s prevalence and have been included in same class. The map is our own result and is not taken from another source. As shown in the zoning map of SV against men, the highest decrease in the prevalence of SV was in Bermuda (rate of 107.64 per 100,000 persons). Andorra, Bhutan, Burundi, France, Grenada, Guyana, Italy, Liberia, Nigeria, Paraguay, Portugal, Saint Lucia, Swaziland and The Bahamas had also a decreasing trend (rate of 34.62 per 100,000 persons). The highest increase in the prevalence of men SV was also observed in Equatorial Guinea and Luxembourg (rate of 72.39 per 100,000 persons). Also, Angola, Cambodia, Cameroon, Estonia, Lithuania, Mozambique, Namibia and Vietnam have been ranked next in terms of increasing trend in SV’s prevalence rate (rate of 30.25 per 100,000 persons). The countries above had distinct trends from others, while most of other countries had very slow declining trends (rate of 1.2 per 100,000 persons).
Considering the map of SV against women, countries with a distinct trend are as follows: SV against women in China, North Korea, and Taiwan has increased the most among countries in the world (the rate of 196.68 per 100,000 persons). Lithuania and Namibia have been ranked next (at rate of 81.62 per 100,000 persons). In addition, the map shows Bermuda, Guyana, Mexico, Nigeria, and Saint Lucia have witnessed the largest declines in the prevalence of women SV during time of study (at rate of 145.09 per 100,000 persons). Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea have been ranked next (rate of 44.70 per 100,000 persons). The observed trend in terms of changes in the prevalence rate of SV against women in other countries has been mostly decreasing (rate of 6.10 per 100,000 persons).
Table 1. Prevalence rates (per 100,000 persons) of sexual violence as mean (SD) and estimates from the LGM by the regions for trend analysis. The intercepts represent the estimated overall mean level of the initial sexual violence rate and the slopes show the average rate of change in sexual violence rate over time within each region.
p-value
|
LGM estimates
|
Years
|
Gender
|
Region
|
2017
|
2011
|
2005
|
1999
|
1993
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:1117.89
|
1109.9(365.1)
|
1110.6(372.5)
|
1116.2(389.2)
|
1116.9(385.3)
|
1122.7(393.8)
|
Male
|
Asia
|
0.506
|
Slop: -1.66
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:2449.1
|
2424.3(2217.4)
|
2402.2(2169.9)
|
2445(2294.8)
|
2426.5(2245.3)
|
2442.8(2269)
|
Female
|
0.467
|
Slop: -5.6
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:1421.93
|
1415.3(383.4)
|
1431.2(423.2)
|
1431.8(432.2)
|
1397.8(379.5)
|
1421.8(412.3)
|
Male
|
Africa
|
0.660
|
Slop :3.07
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:3344.9
|
3402.2(1762.2)
|
3410.7(1810)
|
3343.4(1637.9)
|
3342.9(1598.7)
|
3350.1(1653.7)
|
Female
|
0.608
|
Slop: -1.4
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:927.57
|
908.7(183.5)
|
913.5(199.4)
|
921.3(207.8)
|
935.7(224.3)
|
981(279.3)
|
Male
|
Europe
|
0.455
|
Slop: -3.65
|
<0.001
|
Intercept: 1709.3
|
1737.8(410.4)
|
1742.4(402.1)
|
1805.8(505.8)
|
1764(433.8)
|
1837.4(548.7)
|
Female
|
0.624
|
Slop: -4.99
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:1062.82
|
1002.1(316.6)
|
1009.4(343.6)
|
1026.4(407.4)
|
1047.4(460.1)
|
1065.8(471.7)
|
Male
|
North America
|
0.169
|
Slop: -16.97
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:3175.5
|
2821.4(811.2)
|
2822.8(876.3)
|
3094(1158.2)
|
3004.3(1124.5)
|
3117.8(1156.1)
|
Female
|
<0.001
|
Slop: -90.1
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:999.47
|
930.4(172.1)
|
910(190.5)
|
925.4(208.2)
|
971.3(235.2)
|
1008.3(253.3)
|
Male
|
South America
|
0.590
|
Slop: -30.2
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:2531.6
|
2349.7(670.7)
|
2364.6(675.4)
|
2617.9(729.1)
|
2499.3(694.7)
|
2635.8(731)
|
Female
|
0.223
|
Slop: -32.12
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:1471.65
|
1478.4(371.1)
|
1471.5(375.8)
|
1468.1(381.1)
|
1471.8(383.5)
|
1475.7(383.7)
|
Male
|
Australia & Oceania
|
0.997
|
Slop: -0.02
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:4386.8
|
4357.5(1260.5)
|
4371.5(1245.5)
|
4404.3(1187.5)
|
4380(1257.4)
|
4410.3(1165.3)
|
Female
|
0.593
|
Slop: -5.2
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:1177.7
Slop: -1.6
|
1155.3(186.8)
|
1160(407.1)
|
1166.2(420.1)
|
1164.5(405)
|
1193.9(423.8)
|
Male
|
Global a
|
0.128
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:2788.9
Slop: -2.1
|
2745(1699.6)
|
2744(1703.3)
|
2803.8(1709.8)
|
2769.6(1698.3)
|
2816.1(1704.5)
|
Female
|
0.013
|
a: The LGM results is related to prevalence rates of sexual violence, repeated in every 2 years, from 1990 to 2017. In the others, the rates repeated in every 6 year, from 1993 to 2017, due to small sample size consideration.
Table 2. Prevalence rates (per 100,000 persons) of sexual violence as mean (SD) and estimates from the LGM by the HDI for trend analysis. The intercepts represent the estimated overall mean level of the initial sexual violence rate and the slopes show the average rate of change in sexual violence rate over time within each region.
p-value
|
LGM estimatesa
|
Years
|
Gender
|
|
2017
|
2011
|
2005
|
1999
|
1993
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:1121.1
|
1097.8(341.5)
|
1102.2(367.7)
|
1107.6(375.1)
|
1114.9(369.8)
|
1130(366.5)
|
Male
|
Human Development >=0.7
|
0.136
|
Slope: -6.24
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:2672.5
|
2602.1(1709.6)
|
2612.1(1722.8)
|
2665.9(1707.3)
|
2634.9(1690)
|
2678.6(1693.7)
|
Female
|
0.667
|
Slope: -0.7
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:1252.9
|
1221.2(405.7)
|
1226.6(419.9)
|
1236(440.4)
|
1243.9(454.8)
|
1258.7(461.7)
|
Male
|
Human Development <0.7
|
0.205
|
Slope: -8.58
|
<0.001
|
Intercept:2934
|
2915.1(1670.4)
|
2900.3(1661.9)
|
2963.8(1695.3)
|
2933.8(1663.4)
|
2973.2(1699.2)
|
Female
|
0.747
|
Slope:5.1
|
a: The LGM results is related to prevalence rates of sexual violence, repeated in every 2 years, from 1993 to 2017.