Patient flow
A total of 1,373 patients with CLD were recruited; 265 of them were excluded because of missing serum samples, the presence of inflammatory diseases, or unmatched diagnoses between the central reviewers and hospital-based pathologists. Discordant diagnoses were observed in patients with NAFLD (n = 20), AIH (5), and PBC (4). The remaining 1,108 patients were included in the final analysis (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1 Study flow chart.
M2BPGi-Qt, quantitative measurement of Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer
Baseline characteristics
The mean age of the patients was 58.8 ± 13.7 years; 480 participants (43.3%) were men, and the mean BMI was 23.6 ± 3.86 kg/m2. There were 506, 163, 158, 153, 111, and 17 patients with HCV infection, HBV infection, NAFLD, AIH, PBC, and ALD, respectively. Among patients with HCV infection, 159 achieved SVR. As confirmed by the central reviewer, the number and frequency of each fibrosis stage were as follows: 145 (13.1), 395 (35.6), 248 (22.4), 193 (17.4), and 144 (13.0) for F0, F1, F2, F3, and F4, respectively (Table 1).
M2BPGi-Qt level in each liver fibrosis stage
An association was observed between increasing M2BPGi-Qt levels and liver fibrosis progression in patients with HCV and HBV infections. Specifically, a significant difference in M2BPGi-Qt levels was observed between patients with early- (F2) and advanced-stage (F3) liver fibrosis. In patients with NAFLD, the mean M2BPGi-Qt level increased as fibrosis progressed. However, ALD was not evaluated because of an insufficient number of cases. In patients with PBC, higher M2BPGi levels were associated with more severe fibrosis. In contrast to the other patient groups, M2BPGi-Qt levels did not appear to be strongly associated with the degree of fibrosis in patients with AIH (Fig 2).
Fig. 2 Correlations between M2BPGi-Qt levels and fibrosis stage. Data are expressed as median.
The M2BPGi-Qt levels were compared among the fibrosis stages for each etiology using Jonckheere–Terpstra test. HCV infection, HBV infection, and AIH were determined based on the new Inuyama classification system; NAFLD was based on the SAF score and PBC was based on the Nakanuma classification. AIH, autoimmune hepatitis; M2BPGi-Qt, quantitative measurement of Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer; PBC, primary biliary cholangitis; SVR, sustained virological response
The AUC values of M2BPGi for predicting ≥F1, ≥F2, ≥F3 and ≥F4 in NAFLD were 0.815, 0.837, 0.784, and 0.768, respectively, which were better than those for other etiologies. A positive correlation between the M2BPGi-Qt cutoff values and fibrosis severity was observed in patients with various liver disease etiologies, excluding AIH (Online Resource 3).
Clinical factors other than liver fibrosis influence M2BPGi levels in patients with AIH
The degree of activity classification was more severe in patients with high M2BPGi-Qt levels (≥ 3.0 AU/mL) than in those with low levels (< 3.0 AU/mL) (p < 0.001) (Online Resource 4).
The logistic regression analysis revealed whether there was a significant relationship or association between the groups (Online Resource 5). Activity stage; AST, ALT, total bilirubin, and albumin levels; platelet count; and prothrombin time were identified as significant variables in the univariate analyses. The multivariate analyses confirmed that activity stage; ALT, total bilirubin, and albumin levels; and platelet count were independent factors differentiating the two groups. Activity stage had the highest OR (7.663; 95% CI, 2.478–23.67; p < 0.001).
Influence of liver activity stage on M2BPGi levels
The M2BPGi-Qt levels increased with the progression of liver activity in patients with HCV infection, HBV infection, or AIH, indicating that higher M2BPGi-Qt levels are associated with more advanced stages of liver activity. Similarly, in patients with NAFLD, the M2BPGi levels increased with the progression of the activity stage based on the NAS score.
Fig. 3 Correlations between M2BPGi-Qt levels and activity stages.Data are expressed as median. M2BPGi-Qt levels were compared among the activity stages for each etiology using Tukey’s honest significant difference test. HCV infection, HBV infection, and AIH were determined based on the new Inuyama Classification system and NAFLD based on the NAFLD activity score. AIH, autoimmune hepatitis; M2BPGi-Qt, quantitative M2BPGi measurement; SVR, sustained virological response
Model establishment using M2BPGi-Qt for LC
The number of training and validation datasets was 775 and 333, respectively. No significant difference was observed between the groups overall; however, the frequency of men in the training dataset tended to be relatively higher than that in the validation dataset (p = 0.064) (Online Resource 6).
From the regression analysis results, five variables (activity stage, platelet count, albumin, prothrombin time and total bilirubin levels) were selected as the optimal variables out of the original 19 variables (Online Resource 5). Subsequently, we used these variables in the multivariate logistic regression analysis of the training cohort to establish a new algorithm for diagnosing LC using the M2BPGi-Qt level (Table 2). The M2BPGi-Qt level, ALT level, and platelet count were identified as significant independent predictors. This set of predictors was combined to establish the following predictive equation.
MAP-R:M2BPGi-Qt-to-ALT and platelet ratio = [M2BPGi-Qt (AU/mL)/[ALT (IU/L)1/2 × platelets (103/μL)].
MAP-R had a high AUC value for predicting LC in the training and validation datasets (0.759, 95% CI 0.709–0.810 and 0.702, 95% CI 0.595–0.796, respectively), and the AUC values of MAP-R were significantly different from those of M2BPGi-Qt (all p < 0.001) (Online Resource 7).
Validation through the assessment of fibrosis stage by hospital-based pathologists
A total of 144 (13.0%) and 148 (13.3%) patients were diagnosed with LC by a central reviewer and hospital-based pathologists, respectively. The percentage of concordance in LC diagnosis among the pathologists was 75.2%.
MAP-R had the highest AUC value for predicting LC by hospital-based pathologists (0.840, 95% CI 0.806–0.874) (Fig 4), and the AUC values of MAP-R were significantly different from those of M2BPGi-Qt, FIB4 index, ALBI score, and APRI (all p < 0.05) (Online Resource 8). We observed an 83.2% sensitivity and a 71.4% specificity for the MAP-R, with a cutoff value of 1.59.
Fig. 4 Predictive equation using M2BPGi-Qt for the diagnosis of liver cirrhosis by hospital-based pathologists. MAP-R; quantitative measurement of Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer-to-ALT and platelet ratio, APRI; AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB4; fibrosis 4, ALBI; albumin-bilirubin
The IDI values of MAP-R were significantly different from those of the M2BPGi-Qt level, FIB4 index, ALBI score, and APRI (all p < 0.001). The NRI values were significantly different between MAP-R and the M2BPGi-Qt level, ALBI score, and APRI (p < 0.001). In contrast, there was no significant difference in the NRI values between the MAP-R and FIB 4 indices (p = 0.150).