Deformed archeological remains at Lilybaeum in Western Sicily (southern Italy) as possible ground signatures of missed large earthquake in the area.

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3781292/v1

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Deformed archeological remains at Lilybaeum in Western Sicily (southern Italy) as possible ground signatures of missed large earthquake in the area.

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3781292/v1

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published 23 Sep, 2024

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Archaeoseismic analysis performed in Western Sicily point to deformed archeological remains at Lilybaeum, a Punic coastal city founded in 397 B.C. at the Island’s westernmost edge. Starting from the direct observation of deformed ruins, an interdisciplinary work-strategy, which has included field-structural analysis, drone-shot high-resolution aerial photogrammetry, and geophysical prospecting, was employed to investigate whether the identified deformations may represent the ground effects of a previously unknown large earthquake in the area. Among the unearthed remains, some mosaics and a stone-paved monumental avenue show evidence of tectonic deformation being fractured, folded, and uplifted. Trend of folding and fracturing is consistent with the NNW-SSE oriented tectonic max stress axis to which western Sicily is currently undergoing. Displacement along a fracture deforming the Decumanus Maximus together with the finding of a domino-type directional collapse, enable us to interpret the observed deformation as the ground signature of a coseismic slip. Seismic rupture occurred along a previously unmapped deformation front that well fits in the seismotectonic context of Western Sicily. Measured offset, geophysical prospecting, and age-constraints all point to the possibility that a highly-energetic earthquake nucleated in the area following a coseismic rupture along a NE-SW trending back-verging reverse fault towards the end of the IV century A.D. Since seismic catalogs do not provide evidence of such a large earthquake, the latter might represent a missed event in the historical seismic record. This finding provides constraints to redefine the seismic hazard of Western Sicily, a region where recurrence-time intervals for large earthquakes are still unknown.

Sicilian Collision Zone

archaeoseismic analysis

deformed archeological remains

active tectonics

historical earthquakes

seismic hazard.

According to both historical and instrumental seismicity, the Sicilian segment of the Apenninic-Maghrebian collisional system in the central Mediterranean (Fig. 1A) is a seismically active zone that has even experienced destructive earthquakes (http://bollettinosismico.rm.ingv.it; CPTI15, see Rovida et al., 2020). Seismic records further evidence that largest earthquakes (e.g., the Messina 1908 and Noto 1693, see Barreca et al., 2021; Gambino et al., 2021 and reference therein) have occurred mostly in the easternmost portion of the island, where elastic strain accumulates in the crust and cyclically releases mainly along normal or oblique, right-lateral, regional-scale faults at the SW edge of the Ionian Subduction System (Gutscher et al., 2016; Scarfì et al., 2018; Barreca et al., 2019). Moving westwards, the instrumental earthquake dataset reveals how seismicity becomes more and more scattered with events characterized by low-to-moderate magnitude (1 < M < 5.5) that mainly concentrated along the central-inner portion of the Sicilian Collisional Zone (i.e., in the Caltanissetta Basin and Madonie Mts.), and in the southern Tyrrhenian domain (Pondrelli et al., 2006; Billi et al., 2007). Computed focal solutions point to seismic faulting in the eastern side of Sicily dominated by oblique transtensional kinematics whereas central-western Sicily is mostly characterized by nodal planes with reverse-oblique solutions (Scarfì et al. 2021). The pattern of recorded seismicity and related kinematics reflects the current geodynamic scenario where continent-continent (to the west) and continent-ocean (to the east) convergence dynamics take place simultaneously (Barreca et al. 2016). Accordingly, upper plate sectors pushing against a laterally variable foreland domain, thin descending oceanic to the East and thicker continental to the West, results in uneven rates of tectonic convergence; higher around the Ionian Subduction Zone (ISZ), and lower in the almost-locked Sicilian Collisional Zone (SCZ). While instrumental datasets provide elements for depicting a consistent seismotectonic picture for the SCZ, the illuminated time-window is, however, limited to the last half-century such that a compelling seismic hazard analysis is tough to perform. Pre-instrumental seismic catalogues can supply this limitation and, in some cases, they may represent powerful datasets to evaluate recurrence time-interval of large earthquakes even if, further back in time, the historical records gradually disappear. For instance, available historical and parametric catalogs for the Italian territory report earthquakes that have occurred over a long-time span (461 B.C.–A.D. 2020, see Boschi et al., 2000; Guidoboni et al., 2019; Rovida et al., 2020) albeit, prior to the thirteenth-to fourteenth-century, data on the effects of historical earthquakes appear generally sparse and mostly unconstrained.

Recently, structurally damaged ancient buildings, directional collapses and/or faulted archeological relics have been regarded, when other natural and anthropogenic effects are ruled out, as the possible footprints of past and missed earthquakes in many tectonically active countries worldwide (Stiros, 1996, 2001; Galadini & Galli, 1999; Galli & Galadini, 2001). In this viewpoint, countries rich in ancient ruins and falling in seismically unstable areas (e.g., those facing the Mediterranean Basin), may be exploited to retrieve additional information for the identification of possible missed earthquakes in the past allowing, therefore, filling gaps in the puzzled historical seismicity. Along the SCZ, the largest amount of archaeological data encompasses the period between fourth century B.C. and the fourth–fifth century A.D. This enormous and well-dated archeological substrate has been exploited either to identify previously unknown seismic events (e.g., Guidoboni et al., 2002; Barreca et al., 2014) or to better relocate the source region of large earthquakes reported in chronicles (Barreca et al., 2010a).

In this paper, we report on folded-to-displaced archeological relics from the Lilybaeum archeological site, a former Punics to Roman settlement located in Western Sicily. Starting from the direct observation of deformed ruins, an interdisciplinary approach has been followed to understand if recognized deformation may represent the ground effects of a previously unknown large earthquake occurred in the area. Field structural investigations supported by the analysis of high-resolution, drone-shot photogrammetry and derived digital surface modeling (DSM), along with geophysical prospecting both on land and offshore, are all in support of a tectonic origin of the deformation. According to the amount of dislocation measured along well-dated archeological features and to age-constrained directional collapses, a back-verging reverse fault ruptured in the area around the end of the IV century A.D., producing a highly-energetic earthquake. This finding may aid in redefining the seismic hazard of Western Sicily, a low-deforming region where recurrence-time intervals for large earthquakes are longer than instrumental records and, therefore, still largely unknown.

Western Sicily is a segment of the SCZ (Fig. 1A), a complex stack of double-verging thrust sheets with NE-SW direction resulting from the Neogene-Quaternary Africa-Europe subduction/collisional dynamics (Dewey et al. 1989; Roure et al. 1990; Faccenna et al. 2001a, 2004; Henriquet et al. 2020). In this subduction/collisional frame, tectonic shortening initially involved the Paleogenic deep-water covers of the subducting Neotethys oceanic domain, creating a large accretionary wedge in response to sediment scraping at the top of the descending oceanic slab (Alpine-Tethys Units in Fig. 1B, see Ogniben, 1960; Monaco & Tortorici, 1995). During the Oligo-Miocene, portions of the wedge were pushed by the advancing European backstop and progressively transported toward the south up to tectonically override the platform/basin pre-orogenic configuration of the African continental margin (Catalano et al. 1996; Henriquet et al. 2020). According to the continuing convergence, the African paleo-margin was then positively inverted to create a foreland-ward migrating thrust-wedge. This thrust wedge, locally more than 20 km thick, is formed by deep-water Meso-Cenozoic carbonate units, overriding a more than 10 km-thick carbonate platform (Catalano and D’Argenio 1978, 1982; Bello et al. 2000), and is characterized by a multi-stage tectonic evolution during the last 15 My evolving from thin to thick - skinned structural style (Catalano et al., 2013; Gasparo Morticelli et al., 2015; Sulli et al., 2021) .The thrust-stack includes Meso-Cenozoic shallow to deep-water carbonate successions (Catalano & D’Argenio, 1978, 1982; Bello et al., 2000) deformed into a series of tectonic units bounded by reverse fault contacts. During the tectonic piling, Middle-Upper Miocene terrigenous and evaporites sediments deposited syn-tectonically in a wedge-top/foredeep migrating system (Gugliota et al., 2014 and reference within). The westernmost segment of the SCZ is a roughly NE-SW trending contractional belt (Fig. 1B) interposed between two extensional domains, the Tyrrhenian back-arc to the north (Faccenna et al. 2001b), and the Sicily Channel Rift Zone to the south (SCRZ in Fig. 1A, see Ben-Avraham et al., 1990). Deep seismic explorations have shed light on the crustal setting of many parts of Western Sicily, suggesting that the tectonic belt in the area is made up of multiple horses that structured at different times and various structural levels (Catalano et al. 2000; Finetti et al. 2005). During the thin-skinned tectonic, two main shortening events involved the Meso-cenozoic carbonate units (shallow to deep seated tectonic events, see Avellone et al., 2010) generating two superposed structural levels separated by a flat regional decollement, identified by seismic reflection interpretation as part of a geometric configuration that resembles a duplex deformation context (Catalano et al. 2000; Tortorici et al. 2001; Albanese and Sulli 2012). The upper structural level of the duplex system consists of an early Miocene, 1–3 Km-thick horses’ system involving both shallow and deep-water terrains (Panormide and Imerese-Sicano units) in a shallow-seated tectonic event. This shallow tectonic wedge is detached down-deep along a regional sole-thrust through which the entire imbricate fan has migrated southward slipping over the top-layer of the under-thrusting northernmost part of the Pelagian Block (Fig. 1A). Since the late Miocene-Early Pliocene, back-arc opening in the north along with subduction cessation gave rise to continent-continent collision dynamics along much part of the SCZ (Bianchi et al., 1987; Bello et al., 2000; Catalano et al., 2013; Finetti et al., 2005; Barreca et al., 2020b). In Western Sicily, this later and still ongoing tectonic stage (deep-seated tectonic event, see section 2.1) was characterized by the deepening of decollement levels and the nucleation of foreland-verging horses bounded by deep-seated, high-angle thrust-faults. Overall, thrust-contacts and associated wide-wavelength folding formed a ~ 10 km-thick hinterland-dipping thrust-stack (Catalano et al., 2000; Avellone et al., 2010; Barreca et al., 2010b; Barreca & Maesano, 2012). High-angle thrust contacts have remained mostly buried along the eastern portion of the SCZ (Bello et al. 2000; Finetti et al. 2005; Catalano et al. 2013) whereas, in Western Sicily, these young thrusts system has breached and refolded the previously stacked tectonic units (e.g., the overlain early Miocene shallow thrust-wedge, see Avellone et al., 2010; Gasparo Morticelli et al., 2017) up to pierce the topographic surface with large ramp-anticline culminations. Along these structural culminations, the previously under-thrusted foreland series have been strongly uplifted and exposed in outcrop (e.g., the Trapani-S. Vito lo Capo Mountains and the Mt. Kumeta–Rocca Busambra ridges to the north and the Mt. Magaggiaro - Pizzo Telegrafo ramp anticline system southward, see (Tortorici et al., 2001; Albanese & Sulli, 2012; Balestra et al., 2019; Gasparo Morticelli et al., 2017 and Fig. 1B for location).

Since the upper Pliocene, the thrust wedge system grows through N-verging structures, correlated at depth with the thick-skinned tectonic event, which involves the crystalline basement in the internal sector of the chain (Accaino et al., 2011; Catalano et al., 2013; Gasparo Morticelli et al., 2015). Field investigations and seismic data from the adjacent marine realms documented broad, active N-verging thrusting throughout the central-western sector of the SCZ (Sulli et al. 2021). According to the Authors, these tectonic features developed in the late collisional stage of the SCZ and are interpreted to be the crustal expression of a change in the subduction polarity (from N-dipping to S-dipping) occurred in the southern Tyrrhenian margin since the late Pleistocene (see also Billi et al., 2011). The investigated archaeological site frames therefore in this active contractional tectonic domain and it is located close to the continuation toward the SW of Mt. Grande thrust-ramp (see Catalano et al., 2000, 2002 and Fig. 1B for location). At a more detailed scale, the site lies on a topographically-flat coastal region modeled on 20–50 m-thick Early-Middle Pleistocene bioclastic grainstones (D’Angelo & Vernuccio, 1992; Catalano et al., 2017).

2.1 Seismotectonics

Marine terraces mapped all along the coastal domain (Ferranti et al. 2021) and regional (Ferranti et al. 2008) to local GPS measurements (Barreca et al. 2020b; Pipitone et al. 2020; Parrino et al. 2022) point to Western Sicily as a low-strain-rate shortening region since at least the Middle-late Pleistocene. These data indirectly would suggest an eventual long recurrence time-interval for large earthquakes in the area. Historical catalogs (e.g., Rovida et al., 2020), actually show that only few and low-to-moderate Intensity earthquakes occurred in Western Sicily in the last centuries whereas no record exists before the XVIII century. Among these, the most energetic earthquake was an I_max 7 MCS (Mw = 5.1) seismic event occurred on May 18, 1828 and, even if its location has remained largely unconstrained, it was located close to the city of Marsala (Molin et al., 2008, and Fig. 2 for location). In January 1968, a seismic sequence with a M≃6 mainshock struck the Belice Valley in the central sector of Western Sicily, revealing the seismogenic potential of this part of the Island. As suggested by the computed focal solutions (McKenzie, 1972; Anderson & Jackson, 1987), seismotectonic processes in western Sicily accommodate active compression at the front of the SCZ. Further, hypocenters distribution (up to 35 km depth, see Anderson & Jackson, 1987; DISS Working Group, 2021) indicate how seismic ruptures nucleated along the younger and deep-seated thrust planes (see section 2 and Monaco et al., 1996; Lavecchia et al., 2007; Visini et al., 2010; Sgroi et al., 2012; Ferranti et al., 2019). After the 1968 seismic swarm, other earthquakes with M < 5 occurred in western Sicily such as the June 22, 1981 (Mw = 4.9) seismic shock (Pondrelli et al. 2006). The seismic event was localized near the city of Mazara del Vallo (see Fig. 2), about 20 km SE of Marsala (i.e., the investigated site), where it nucleated at a depth > 20 km. An almost pure reverse mechanism characterized seismic rupture along NE-SW trending nodal planes (Fig. 2). Computed focal solutions of more recent (M ≥ 3) earthquakes (Neri et al., 2005; Alparone et al., 2023; Courtesy of C. Musumeci), confirm that seismic faulting in the area is mainly characterized by a reverse kinematics resulting from an NNW-SSE trending P-axis (Fig. 2 top-right) consistent with geodetic measurement (Barreca et al. 2014b). According to the seismicity recorded in the last 35 years (1987–2023, INGV-ISIDe), only low-to-moderate seismic events (2 < M < 4.3) occurred in Western Sicily during the considered time-interval. Seismic activity is mostly concentrated in the Belice Valley while few earthquakes have been recorded approaching the site of Lilybaeum (Fig. 2).

3.1 The ancient city of Lilybaeum: chronological markers

The investigated archaeological site is located at the westernmost tip of Sicily Island (southern Italy) and hosts the ruins of the ancient Lilybaeum, a coastal city founded by the Punics in 397 B.C. (Di Stefano 1993) (Fig. 3A). Long-lasting archeological excavations in the area (Giglio, 2009; Baumer & Mistretta, 2020 and reference within), have brought to light much part of the urban setting whereas dating of archeological layers has provided an almost complete through-time evolution of the ancient settlement. According to archeological data, the site was occupied more or less continuously between the IV century B.C. and the VI century A.D. (Mistretta 2016). The occurrence of several luxurious private buildings, with a wealth of thermal baths and polychrome mosaics, suggest prosperity of the city until the III century A.D. (Roman Empire), up to being abandoned shortly thereafter (IV-V century A.D., Palazzo & Vecchio, 2013). Archeological surveys and geophysical prospecting (Giglio 2006), point to a quadrangular-shaped urban setting characterized by a road fabric arranged in a regular grid where main roads (Decumanus or Plateia) are laterally joined by secondary ones (Cardines or Stenopoi). In this frame, one of the most suggestive archaeological remain is the Decumanus Maximus, a NW-SE oriented stone-paved monumental avenue connecting the harbor to the civitas (Giglio, 2011, Fig. 3B). As epigraphically attested, the Decumanus Maximus was probably paved in late Republican Age (I century B.C, see Silvestrini, 2013). Discovered in 2001 and progressively unearthed up to 2011, the street is today exposed for a total length of 115 m. It exhibits a 5.3 m-large and convex-up track (to allow rainwater to run off along the sides), paved with 15–20 cm-thick rectangular blocks of withe limestones and edged on both sides by 0.6 m-wide drainage canals (opus spicatum). Between the III and IV century A.D., blocks of calcarenites were posed above the drainage canals to form sidewalls bordering the Decumanus along its southern boundary (Palazzo and Vecchio 2013). After the IV century A.D., significant structural transformations affected the areas facing the Decumanus. The new arrangement is documented by paved floors, mainly made with recycled material, built around several kilns alongside the Decumanus. Late IV-early V century A.D. pottery pieces and coins found in the soil layers overlaying the paved floors predate the structural transformations (Palazzo and Vecchio 2013). Since the V century A.D., the first main change in the Lilybaeum urban setting took place as testified by abandonments, re-use, and spoiling that also led to the final obliteration of the Decumanus as a monumental avenue and its new function as a Byzantine graveyard (Giglio 2011). About the Cardines, they were identified to connect with the Decumanus both south and north (Palazzo and Vecchio 2013). Here, a spectacular stone-paved cross-road has been unearthed only recently (Mistretta, 2022, Fig. 3B).

In the north-east sector of the archeological site, remains of private buildings with several rooms and thermal baths, decorated with polychrome mosaics, have been unearthed since the last century. These features are currently well exposed at the Insula I and are part of the so-called Roman Domus (Fig. 3B). According to archeological data, the Roman Domus was built between the end of the II and the beginning of the III century A.D., following an urban reorganization during which a previous Hellenistic settlement (II century B.C.) was preserved and included in the new one. According to Caruso (2008), the Insula I was partly destroyed by a violent earthquake probably occurred before the V century A.D. After that, the area was converted into a productive district with kilns built directly at the center of some mosaics. All the archeological features described above have been analyzed to detect clues or traces of deformation and exploited as chronological markers.

3.2 Evidence of deformed archeological remains

Direct field observation within the archeological site, supported by high-resolution aerial photos and accurate profiling over generated DSM, enabled us to identify and characterize the deformation affecting the archeological remains at several places. Along its path, the Decumanus Maximus (see Fig. 3B for location) shows an unusual NE-SW trending step where blocks of withe limestone paving the road are broken and displaced (Fig. 4A). High-resolution profiling over the DSM (inset in Fig. 4A), revealed that the road is displaced of about 10 cm and both blocks siding the fracture are deformed as well. In particular, the raised block (SE-side), is gently folded to create an anticline that has its hinge coaxial to the fracture. Instead, the lowered block (NW-side) is slightly tilted (~ 3.5°) approaching the fracture, while a buckled surface characterizes the paving further West (Fig. 4B). A conjugated (Andersonian-type) set of fractures have been observed to pervasively affect the paving in the lowered block (Fig. 4C) along with slightly laterally extruded slabs at the road edges (Fig. 4D). Folding and/or anticorrelation appear also to affect the III-IV century A.D. sidewalls (younger than the paved-road, see section 3.1) on the SW side of the Decumanus (Fig. 4E). Even if the displacement affecting the Decumanus decrease toward the SW, misalignment of building calcarenite blocks supports continuation of the deformation even outside the road (Fig. 4F). Moreover, longitudinal tiles-grouts NW of the fracture are out-of-alignment, suggesting either an anti-correlation (caused, for instance, by a ~ 15 cm-lateral offset) or a distortion (Fig. 4G). At the Insula IX, about 100 m NE of the Decumanus (Fig. 3B), a cross-road has been recently discovered by archeological surveys (see Mistretta, 2022). Analysis performed over the drone-shot photogrammetry and high-resolution profiling over the DSM (Fig. 5A and B), revealed that the NE-SW trending Cardo is unusually tilted toward the NW of about 3°. As pointed out by the altitude/position of the edging stones of the cambered road surfaces, the road section is slightly rotated according to the Cardo longitudinal axis. This results therefore in a lowering (by around 15 cm) from its original position of the NW side of the road, assuming a pivot point at the SE edging stone (Fig. 5B). Evidence of slightly deformed ruins have even been found at the Insula I in the NE sector of the investigated archeological site (see Fig. 3B for location), where floor mosaics from the Hellenistic period (c. II century B.C.) are characterized by rippled to folded surfaces. An asymmetric folding with a hinge-axis aligned approximately N75E deforms the Cave Canem (i.e., beware of the dog, Fig. 6A). Even in this case, high-resolution profiling over the DSM showed that bending and uplifting has affected the SSE block of the mosaic, whereas tilting is observed in the NNW block (Fig. 6B). Adjacent to the Cave Canem, another mosaic originally paving the adyterium (i.e., the dressing room, Fig. 6A) is folded to form a gentle syncline (Fig. 6C). The DSM’s contour-mode visualization provide additional insights into the deformation trend, pointing to a co-axiality of contractional features affecting both the mosaics (Fig. 6D).

3.2.1 Origin of deformation

It is worth noting that NE-SW trends of deformation (fracturing and folding), observed to affect the examined archeological remains (Decumanus, Cardo, and mosaics at the Insula I), are all consistent with the NNW-SSE oriented tectonic max stress axis to which western Sicily is currently undergoing (see section 2.1 and Fig. 2). Furthermore, uplift-folding on the block SE of the fracture slicing the Decumanus (Fig. 4B), and the mosaics at Insula I (Fig. 6B) are consistent with a tectonic origin of the deformation since the raising of the considered blocks is in contrast with a gravity-driven subsidence, for instance, on the lowered blocks. Schepis (2017) adds that there are no evidence of hypogeal cavities or cisterns beneath the analyzed floor mosaics at the Insula I such that masonry collapse can be excluded.

Conjugated fractures, slabs extrusion, and distorted or misaligned tiles-grouts along the Decumanus are in line with the paved road experiencing compression according to a sub-horizontal max stress axis. In this view, the discontinuity transversally offsetting the Decumanus may be interpreted as a N40E oriented back-verging reverse fault. Computer-based forward modeling performed over the restored (horizontal) paved road, predict that observed folding and displacement are attained when about 20 cm of tectonic slip is applied to a reverse fault that dips of 30–35° toward the SE (see inset 1 in Fig. 4A). The thrust-fault appears to not continue south-westwards as revealed by its tip occurring in the paving close to the road edge (Fig. 4F). However, a misalignment in masonry of calcarenite blocks is observed a few meters further to the SW (Fig. 4F). Moreover, considering Romans civil engineering skills in roads construction, the tilting affecting the Cardo at Insula IX (Fig. 5C), appears rather unusual and suggests that even this remain may have been involved in tectonic contraction. According to the orientation of the Cardo (NE-SW, see Fig. 5), which is coaxial to the reverse fault displacing the Decumanus (see Fig. 4), measured tilting could hence be the result of a recent NE-SW trending anticline growing in the area.

With the aim to explore the underground geological setting beneath the Decumanus Maximus and search for a possible lateral continuation of the field-observed discontinuities, geophysical surveys were performed both on-land, close to the paved road, and in the near-offshore SW of the archeological site.

4.1 On-shore; ERT surveys

A non-invasive Electrical resistivity surveys was performed near the Decumanus Maximus to look for a potential subsurface signature of the field-observed discontinuity (Fig. 7A). The apparent resistivity of rock material with depth was measured using an MAE X612-EM + multichannel georesistivimeter in a Wenner-Schlumberger electrodic setup (576 measuring quadripoles). 48 steel electrodes spaced 3 meters, covering a total length of 140 m, were used for each resistivity deployment. The measured apparent resistivity values, which differ from the real resistivity value (Loke et al. 2003), have been subjected to inversion processes using Res2Dinv software, which makes use of finite element or finite difference mathematical calculations to obtain a 2D resistivity pseudo-sections (ERT, Electrical Resistivity Tomography, Barker, 1989). A 2D ERT section, oriented parallel to the Decumanus Maximus (NW-SE direction), was then recorded and plotted using a logarithmic colour-bar (Fig. 7B). Obtained section illuminates the sub-surface setting where primary layers with distinct resistivity values can be detected. The shallowest layer (Unit a in Fig. 7B), appear as discontinuous low-resistivity unit (20–30 ohm*m). The layer below is characterized by the highest resistivity values (ρ > 70 ohm*m) and can be followed for much part of the section and mainly in the first 10 meters of depth (Unit b in Fig. 7B). Two further zones with resistivity values that tend to decline with depth are found below this layer. The shallowest of these has resistivity values in the range 20–50 ohm*m while the deepest has resistivity values below 4 ohm*m (Unit c in Fig. 7B). Following local surface geology (D’Angelo & Vernuccio, 1992 ; Catalano et al., 2017), the various resistivity layers have been tentatively interpreted as geological units. As a result, the low resistivity top-layer is interpreted as upper Pleistocene-Holocene deposit (Catalano et al. 2017). The highly-resistive layer below is associated to Early-Middle Pleistocene grainstones, which are widely exposed in the coastal region surrounding the investigated archeological site. The intermediate and deepest resistivity layers are interpreted as dry and wet (salty water) arenaceous to sandy-marly clays material (i.e., the Plio-Pleistocene Narbone and Belice formations, see Catalano et al., 2017) respectively. Even while the ERT section does not clearly allow for the detection of rocks fracturing, it provide information for interpreting the structural pattern of the investigated subsoil domain. The 5–7 m-thick high-resistivity layer (i.e., the Early-Middle Pleistocene grainstones) is found to occur along a significant portion (from 0 to 95 m) of the ERT1 section (Fig. 7B). This high-resistivity unit is clearly folded as indicated by the undulated geometry of its top and bottom boundaries, respectively. Toward the SE, the layer is progressively uplifted. This outline resembles a syncline/anticline deformation pattern (Fig. 7B). In this frame, projection of the fracture affecting the Decumanus Maximus along the ERT1 section (Fig. 7A), revealed how the discontinuity displacing the stone-paved road roughly falls close to the ideal projection at the surface of the fold’s inflection line (sensu Ramsay, 1967), where rock breakthrough is expected. ERT survey close to the Decumanus Maximus finally confirm that the investigated area is deformed by folds and reverse faults according to the ongoing tectonic shortening that is affecting this region of Western Sicily (see section 2.1).

4.2 Off-shore; sparker surveys

Marine geophysical soundings were performed in the near-offshore of the investigated archeological site to determine whether the deformation front reconstructed on land may extend laterally according to its NE-SW average direction. The survey covers a sector of the continental shelf off Marsala and consisted of the acquisition of ten NW-SE trending, tightly-spaced (0.4 − 0.2 km) high-resolution, single-channel seismic profiles (Fig. 8A). Seismic dataset was acquired using an acoustic source consisting of a Mini-Spark 1000 high-voltage power supply coupled with a Geo-Source 200 multi-tip array fired at 300 ms time-intervals. Data were recorded with the Geo-Sense Mini Streamer with arrays of 8 elements for 250 ms two-way time (TWT) at a 10 kHz (0.1 ms) sampling rate. The dataset was processed using the Geo-Suite software package and by applying a number of mathematical operators to improve the quality of the seismic signal. The achieved vertical resolution is up to 0.7m near the seafloor. The seismic and sequence-stratigraphic analysis has allowed the identification of three seismic stratigraphic units based on their strata architecture and seismic characters (e.g., amplitude, frequency, and lateral continuity of seismic reflectors). The seismic units were labelled from younger to older as units A to C (Fig. 8B-D).

Unit A is seismically characterised by layered and parallel, slightly NW dipping configuration, medium to high-frequency with low-to-medium amplitude reflections (Fig. 8B). The top and base of Unit A correspond to the sea bottom and high-amplitude reflector. Calibration of Unit A with the stratigraphic succession sampled in the well-logs close to the investigated area (see Ferranti et al., 2019 for details) indicates a correlation with the Upper Pleistocene-Holocene deposits. The maximum thickness of Unit A is about 11 meters (~ 1700 m/s).

Unit B is seismically characterized by variable amplitude discontinuous reflections with moderate lateral continuity (Fig. 8B-D). A medium- to high-amplitude, laterally continuous reflector defines its top. Locally, the top of Unit B corresponds to an irregular surface coinciding with the seafloor. We correlate Unit B to the Lower-Middle Pleistocene cemented sand and conglomerates locally topped by bioclastic calcarenites with levels of conglomerates, sandstones and pelites that are widespread along most of the onshore sector of Marsala (Fig. 8E).

Following the seismic facies analysis, the seismic lines were time-to-depth converted using velocity intervals of 1500 and 1700 m/s for the water column and Pleistocene-Holocene sedimentary units, respectively.

All seismic profiles show a series of small-scale bathymetric highs and lows on the seafloor that are generally bounded by reverse and thrust faults according to dislocated reflectors and/or juxtaposition of reflection panels with different seismic characters. Reverse and thrust-faults have propagated within the Quaternary sedimentary series often dislocating or folding the seafloor. In general, the detected structural features exhibit opposite dipping (toward NW and SE), forming overall small-scale triangle zone (Fig. 8B) and pop-up structures (Fig. 8D). Horizontal and vertical displacement on the thrust faults is generally less than a few tens meters. Spatial correlation of tectonic structures identified on seismic profiles suggest a strike averaging N60E for most of the reverse faults in line with the roughly NW-SE oriented regional shortening (see section 2.1). Although reverse and thrust faults are widely distributed over the investigated marine sector, shortening appears to be more localized with a greater concentration of structures in the area that extends offshore the investigated archaeological site (Fig. 8D). Trends of offshore tectonic structures delineate a NW-SE deformation front and it is interpreted as the continuation toward the SW of the deformation pattern reconstructed by deformed ruins within the archeological site being compatible for location, direction, and kinematics.

Archaeological evidence for an earthquake is not always clear since other natural and anthropogenic effects may equally lead to deformed architectural relics. Therefore, discriminating between traces of earthquakes from those of non-seismic origin (e.g., landslide, liquefaction, sediment compaction etc.) is crucial in archaeoseismological analyses (Ambraseys 2006). Cross-disciplinary strategy that combines, for instance, geological, archaeological, and geophysical investigation, might be helpful in solving the seismic/non-seismic ambiguity that frequently arises when dealing with damaged ancient remains (Stiros 1996). In this context, when the seismic origin of deformation is verified by independent evidence and other factors are ruled out, damaged, tilted, and displaced ancient remains can represent valuable data in understanding active tectonics and seismic hazard of a region.

The ancient city of Lilybaeum was built on an almost-topographically flat coastal area and most of the unearthed man-made structures have their foundations on a thick layer of mechanically hard grainstones (i.e., the Marsala calcarenites, see D’Angelo & Vernuccio, 1992; Catalano et al., 2017) or, locally, on indurated cultural debris. In this context, a non-seismic cause such as slope instability and sediment compaction cannot be accounted to be the source of the observed deformation considering the morphology of the site and the stiff lithology of the outcropping rocky series. Even if sinkholes have been reported to form within the Marsala Calcarenites (Catalano et al. 2017), a localized gravity-driven collapse of the bedrock is in contrast with the against-gravity uplift-folding observed to affect the block SE of the fracture slicing the Decumanus (see section 3.2.1 and Fig. 4B). On the other hand, the contention that i) folding and tilting affect the blocks separated by the fracture slicing the Decumanus, and that ii) the NE-SW trends of deformation characterizing all the analyzed archeological remains are roughly perpendicular to the NNW-SEE trajectory of the tectonic max stress axis to which Western Sicily is currently undergone (see section 2.1 and P-axis in Fig. 2), primarily account for a tectonic origin of the deformation. According to Rodríguez-Pascua M. A. et al., (2011), most of the deformations observed in the investigated archeological site can be classified as Earthquake Archaeological Effects (EAEs). These latter include, among others, conjugated fractures on regular pavements (XFP), and folds on regular pavements (FPV), both features that have been detected in the field along the paving of the Decumanus and in the Hellenistic mosaics at Insula I (see Fig. 4C and 6B, respectively). The tectonic origin of deformation is also supported by sub-surface geophysical imaging performed on-land and offshore, which provide robust hints regarding the lateral and in-depth continuation of the surface-observed deformations.

As a result, the surface breaks, folding and tilting that affect the Lilybaeum remains as well as the latest seafloor displacement in the offshore are here interpreted as part of a contractional coseismic deformation field produced by the nucleation in the area of an earthquake with considerable dimension. Therefore, information about the size of the quake may be retrieved by exploiting the amount of dislocation measured along the Decumanus (~ 10 cm, Fig. 4B). Following the Displacement-Moment Magnitude regression curve available for reverse faults (Wells & Coppermith, 1994; Leonard, 2010), a M = 6.5 seismic event is obtained assuming the measured offset as an average displacement (AD) along the whole coseismic deformation zone. The analysis of historical catalogues (Rovida et al. 2020), revealed that no records exist in western Sicily for seismic events with the estimated magnitude. The most energetic quake reported in the catalogues is the I_max 7 MCS seismic event (estimated Mw = 5.1, see section 2.1), which occurred on May 18, 1828 close to the city of Marsala (see Fig. 2 for location). Even though the dimension of this historical earthquake is unable to produce the measured ~ 10 cm of displacement, its location would indicate a reactivation of the same seismogenic source that probably ruptured in the area several centuries earlier (see section 5.1).

5.1 Dating the seismic event

Once the origin of deformation has been disclosed, a major challenge in archeoseismic analyses is to provides constraints about the timing of the coseismic deformation (Stiros 1996). Deformed archaeological remains at Lilybaeum have ages spanning from the II century B.C. (i.e., the folded Cave Canem) to the III-IV century A.D. (i.e., the folded sidewalls on the SW side of the Decumanus, see section 3.2 and Fig. 4E). To understand how long time after the construction of the youngest deformed man-made structures the earthquake occurred, attention was paid to potential ground shaking related-effects and to post-seismic urban remodeling. Traces of collapsed structures have been unearthed by archeological explorations in the whole archeological site and in particular at the Insula IX (see Fig. 3B for location). Here, the fall has involved a dry masonry jamb, originally part of a building serving the Lilybaeum sewage system (Fig. 9A). The collapse exhibits a domino-like pattern with masonry blocks fallen toward the N75E direction (i.e., almost orthogonal to the coseismic deformation front, see inset 1in Fig. 9A). To note that directional, domino-arranged building collapses are typically associated with seismic destruction (see Stiros, 1996). According to archaeologists (Baumer & Mistretta, 2020), the collapsed feature was found to be sealed by a soil-layer containing several coins and a bronze steelyard (Fig. 9B left-panel). Ad hoc numismatic study performed over the two better-preserved coins (courtesy of Prof. G. Guzzetta), revealed that they were minted between the 350 and 361 A.D., as they belong to the series with legend FEL TEMP REPARATIO (see Carson et al., 1960, Plate II, Fig. 2295 for comparison, Fig. 9B right-panel).

Age constraints from the soil layer pre-dating the collapse allow us to assert that the seismic event reasonably took place during the second half of the IV century A.D., assuming a few decades of circulation of the coins after their minting. This finding is in line with the structural transformations that occurred in the city of Lilybaeum after the IV century A.D., particularly in the sectors facing the Decumanu Maximus (see section 3.1 and Palazzo & Vecchio, 2013; Caruso, 2008).

Archaeoseismic analysis from the ancient settlement of Lilybaeum in Western Sicily points to deformed archeological remains all over the investigated sector. Direct field observation corroborated by high-resolution aerial photogrammetry allow to characterize the deformation affecting the archeological remains within the archeological site. In particular, accurate topographic profiling over the derived DSM, along with sub-surface geophysical imaging performed both on land and offshore, are all in support of a tectonic origin of the deformation. Folded-to-displaced archeological relics on land and coaxial seafloor offsets in the adjacent marine realm, roughly delineate a previously unmapped NE-SW trending active deformation front that well frames in the seismotectonic context of Western Sicily. Ground shaking related-effects such as the observed directional collapses with domino-like pattern (Fig. 9) along with urban remodeling documented in the archeological record, strongly suggest that part of the deformation affecting the archeological remains could have a coseismic origin. In this frame, the dislocation and folding measured along well-dated archeological features (i.e., the Decumanus Maximus) are here interpreted as ground signatures of a coseismic slip that occurred along the reconstructed deformation front.

Taking into account: i) the amount of dislocation affecting the paved Decumanus Maximus (~ 10 cm, see Fig. 4), ii) age-constrained directional collapse (Fig. 9), and iii) the reconstructed depth geometry of the accountable tectonic structure (Fig. 7), a back-verging reverse fault ruptured in the area, possibly at the end of the VI century AD, resulting in a highly-energetic (M ~ 6.5) earthquake. Seismic catalogs, however, do not provide evidence of such a large earthquake, suggesting the latter as a missed tile in the puzzled historical seismic record. This finding provides, therefore, additional constraints that may be exploited to redefine the seismic potential and hazard of Western Sicily, a region where recurrence-time intervals for large earthquakes are still largely unknown and crossed by strategic gas pipeline systems.

Funding

The research was entirely funded by the University of Catania in the framework of the project ‘SeismoFront’ (resp. G. Barreca), Grant n. 22722132176.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest and no financial interests are directly or indirectly related to the work submitted for publication.

Author contribution

Study conception and design, data collection and analysis were performed by Giovanni Barreca. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Giovanni Barreca, Fabrizio Pepe and Sabrina Grassi and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Material preparation was performed by Morreale Gabriele and Sebastiano Imposa. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Acknowledgement

The governance of the Lilibeo-Marsala Archeological Park and particularly the Dr. M.G. Griffo are kindly acknowledged for their willingness and support during the field operations. A. Mistretta and R. Giglio are warmly thanked for providing archaeological literature and for stimulating discussion. We are indebted with G. Guzzetta, former Professor of Ancient Numismatics at the University of Catania, for kindly providing age-constraints of the coins. The authors also acknowledge the use of MOVE Software Suite granted by Petroleum Experts Limited ( www.petex.com). C. Musumeci from INGV-OE Catania is also thanked for computing some focal solutions of recent earthquakes added in Fig. 2. We show gratitude to M. Pagano for drone-shot images acquisition and processing. The research was entirely funded by the University of Catania in the framework of the project ‘SeismoFront’ (resp. G. Barreca), Grant n. 22722132176.

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published 23 Sep, 2024

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Editorial decision: Major revisions
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Deformed archeological remains at Lilybaeum in Western Sicily (southern Italy) as possible ground signatures of missed large earthquake in the area.

Status:

Journal Publication

Version 1

Abstract

Figures

1. Introduction

2. Geological background

2.1 Seismotectonics

3. Archaeoseismological Analyses

3.1 The ancient city of Lilybaeum: chronological markers

3.2 Evidence of deformed archeological remains

3.2.1 Origin of deformation

4. Geophysical prospections

4.1 On-shore; ERT surveys

4.2 Off-shore; sparker surveys

5. Discussion

5.1 Dating the seismic event

5. Conclusion

Declarations

References

Status:

Journal Publication

Version 1