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Flora Cordoleani
University of California Santa Cruz / NOAA
Corresponding Author
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Rare phenotypes and behaviors adopted by only few individuals in a population are often overlooked, yet they may serve a heightened role for many organisms coping with warming climates. In threatened spring-run Chinook salmon spawning at the edge of the species range (Central Valley, CA USA), late-migrating juveniles were critical to cohort success in years characterized by multi-year droughts and ocean heatwaves. Late migrants rely on cool over-summer river temperatures, and are thus increasingly rare due to the combined effects of warming and dam construction. Yet our results suggest, the further loss of this within-population diversity could have critical impacts to their persistence in a warming climate. Our modeling predicts that thermally appropriate river conditions to support this phenotype will shrink rapidly in the future, and will primarily occur above impassable dams. Importantly, while late migrants dominated returns in some years, interannual variability in individual growth rates and migratory strategies suggests the importance of portfolio effects for these at-risk populations. Reconnecting and maintaining diverse habitat mosaics to support phenotypic and phenological diversity will be integral to the long term persistence of this species.
Keywords
Spring-run Chinook Salmon, Late-migrating Juveniles, Cohort Success, Multi-year Droughts, Ocean Heatwaves, Within-population Diversity, Portfolio Effects
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This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- SuppMatNaturefinal.docx
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See the published version of this preprint at Nature Climate Change.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Article
Flora Cordoleani
University of California Santa Cruz / NOAA
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Nature Climate Change.
Version 1
Posted 03 May, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at Nature Climate Change.
Rare phenotypes and behaviors adopted by only few individuals in a population are often overlooked, yet they may serve a heightened role for many organisms coping with warming climates. In threatened spring-run Chinook salmon spawning at the edge of the species range (Central Valley, CA USA), late-migrating juveniles were critical to cohort success in years characterized by multi-year droughts and ocean heatwaves. Late migrants rely on cool over-summer river temperatures, and are thus increasingly rare due to the combined effects of warming and dam construction. Yet our results suggest, the further loss of this within-population diversity could have critical impacts to their persistence in a warming climate. Our modeling predicts that thermally appropriate river conditions to support this phenotype will shrink rapidly in the future, and will primarily occur above impassable dams. Importantly, while late migrants dominated returns in some years, interannual variability in individual growth rates and migratory strategies suggests the importance of portfolio effects for these at-risk populations. Reconnecting and maintaining diverse habitat mosaics to support phenotypic and phenological diversity will be integral to the long term persistence of this species.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
There is NO Competing Interest.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- SuppMatNaturefinal.docx
Supplementary Materials
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