Epidemic Big Bang: development and quarantine measures for Covid-19

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-37836/v1


New discrete approximation for the infection spread is constructed based on COVID-19 epidemic data. We consider the epidemic as dependent upon four key parameters: the size of population involved, the mean number of dangerous contacts of one infected person per day, the probability to transmit infection due to such contact and the mean duration of disease. In the simplest case of free epidemic in an infinite population, the number of infected rises exponentially day by day. Here we show the model for epidemic process in a closed population, constrained by isolation, treatment and so on. The four parameters introduced here have the clear sense and are in association with the well-known concept of reproduction number in the continuous susceptible-infected-susceptible model. We derive these parameters from the adequate statistical data. On this basis, we also found the corresponding basic reproduction number mentioned above. Our approach allows evaluating the influence of quarantine measures on free pandemic process. We found a good correspondence of the theory and reliable statistical data. The model is quite flexible and it can be expanded for situations that are more complex.

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