The aim of this study was to identify in-hospital clinical and therapeutic predictors of long-term risk of death based on secondary data from a cohort of former SAMs in eastern DRC (Lwiro Follow up Study).
The results show that delayed oedema melting beyond thirty days and therapeutic failure are significantly associated with an increased risk of long-term death after an episode of SAM.
In relation to the existing literature, this study is one of the few, if not the first, in a low-income country to have reconstituted a very large cohort of subjects with a history of SAM and to have followed them for a long time after discharge from hospital in a context of endemic malnutrition. The novelty in this study lies in the fact that it included many subjects with a history of kwashiorkor (67.5%), it examined subjects who had continued to live in an unfavorable environment throughout their lives and it assessed several clinical parameters (including the duration of oedema) and various anthropometric measurements on the occurrence of long-term death.
In terms of long-term survival, it was observed that the risk of death was significantly higher in children whose oedema melted in more than thirty days than in those whose oedema melted in less than thirty days (HR: 2.79 IC95%: 1,13; 6.91). These results are in line with the literature, because although kwashiorkor remains an enigma (25), oxidative stress and disruption of the intestinal microbiome are among the possible causes of oedema and are present in kwashiorkor (26, 27). Oxidative stress, which can cause significant cellular damage and contribute to various health problems and the ageing process, could have several harmful effects over time (28, 29). Diarrheal diseases, which are among the causes of death in individuals who developed malnutrition during childhood (17), may be due to a disturbance in the intestinal microbiota present during an episode of Kwashiorkor (30).
Some studies, including those by M. Kerac et al. and Bwakura et al., found that patients who developed marasmus during hospitalization were at a much higher risk of death in the year following discharge from the hospital. However, the duration of edema resolution was not taken into account in their studies (31, 32). Nevertheless, it is important to note that Bitwe et al. had suggested classifying individuals at risk of death during hospitalization when they present with nutritional edema (33).
The cases of therapeutic failure had a proportional risk of long-term death four times higher (HR: 4.07 and IC95%: 1.29; 12.80) than those without a therapeutic failure. Cases of therapeutic failure suggest a long hospital stay with a high probability of having developed untreated complications which, in the medium term, increase the risk of serious infections, potentially fatal for patients. According to Mwene-Batu et al, the main causes of death after discharge from therapeutic feeding centers among patients treated for SAM were infectious diseases, including malaria and respiratory infections (17).
Treatment failures can also result from acquired immunosuppression due to other diseases such as tuberculosis and HIV, particularly in this study’s context (34–36). Similar studies within the region have reported a low prevalence of HIV (2%) among malnourished children (34), these factors could also contribute significantly to the high proportion of deaths among children who have experienced treatment failure, as the medium-term survival of immunocompromised children with malnutrition generally remains limited after discharge (37–40). Unfortunately, serological data for these malnourished children were not collected.
However, in Zambia, Bwankura et al. were unable to identify long hospital stays as a risk factor for short-term death after an episode of SAM (32). This disparity could be explained by the fact that 43.6% of patients discharged from health facilities in Zambia had a current SAM. This would explain the fact that many of the patients discharged to these facilities would not have been able to obtain authorization for discharge to the HPL.
The present study has some methodological limitations that should be considered in interpreting the results. Essentially, the subjects for this study were chosen based on the Lwiro cohort of malnourished individuals. However, nearly a third (32.15%) of the subjects were not located during the identification process for this study, 11 to 30 years after their discharge from the hospital, making it impossible to assess their long-term outcomes. Additionally, some patients were excluded because their medical records were incomplete.
We could not include subjects lost from sight in our survival analyses because we have no data on their outcome after hospital discharge. By comparing their characteristics with those of the traced subjects, we found that only vaccination status was statistically different between the two groups (p = 0,004). Our results showed that a large proportion of "lost to follow-up" subjects had incomplete vaccination status compared with traced subjects. We have to accept this limitation as we are unable to demonstrate how this would influence the survival analysis results.
Furthermore, the Lwiro database, which this study is based upon, did not include data on possible confounding factors such as demographic data concerning the beginning of life, the crucial 1000 days and data on the evolution of these children from discharge from hospital to the time of our identification, which could play a role in the different associations of long-term survival with the other variables.
Finally, another major limitation of this study is the lack of serological data on malnourished children, which prevents us from making an exhaustive assessment of the prevalence of HIV and tuberculosis in this population. This lack of data makes it difficult to precisely determine the impact of these diseases on the therapeutic failures observed.