Water is a universal resource that transcends national boundaries and serves as a catalyst for both cooperation and conflict [1]. The problem of water resources takes on a significant relevance in the heart of Asia, where two rising giants, India and China, share intricate relationships and simmering tensions [2]. The rivers play a vital role in connecting their water resources with profound significance. The Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra-Jamuna, the Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB), is one of the greatest rivers in South Asia. It begins its journey in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) of China and then flows through four different countries, namely China, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh, before culminating in the Bay of Bengal (Fig. 1). Spanning a distance of 2,900 kilometers (1,800 miles) from its origin the expansive basin of the BRB, encompassing a total area of 580,000 square miles, extends across various geopolitical entities, including the TAR (50 percent), Bhutan (7 percent), the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam (36 percent), and Bangladesh (7 percent). In the Indian context, the drainage basin of the Brahmaputra River encompasses approximately 195,000 square kilometers, constituting 6 percent of the nation's total land area [3]. It serves as a valuable source of economic advantages, including hydropower generation, irrigation support, and facilitation of inland water navigation. Additionally, it holds profound social and cultural importance for the communities’ dependent on the river [4].
The Brahmaputra plays a crucial role in providing nourishment and financial assistance to a large population living alongside it [3]. The hydrological landscape of Asia is focalized around China, which serves as the origin of rivers extending downstream to several countries like India and Bangladesh. This dominance is a consequence of China's annexation of the water-abundant Tibetan Plateau. Commonly referred to as "the third pole," this region encompasses pivotal waterways such as the Indus, Mekong, Yangtze, Yellow, Irrawaddy, Brahmaputra, and others. Approximately 2 billion people rely on major rivers originating from the Tibetan plateau in the southwest, underscoring its significance [5].
As the current India–China are marked by territorial disagreements, profound distrust, border frictions, and a geopolitical competition [6]. It is facing a security conundrum, with water difficulties potentially acting as a significant pressure point or catalyst in their relations [7] and impacting the lives of the people on both sides. Echoing the words of Mikhail Gorbachev;
“Water, like religion and ideology, has the power to move millions of people. Since the very birth of human civilization, people have moved to settle close to it. People move when there is too little of it. People move when there is too much of it. People journey down it. People write, sing, and dance about it. People fight over it and all people, everywhere and every day, need it” [8].
Considering the aforementioned reality, it can be argued that the hydro-engineering initiatives undertaken by China on the Tibetan Plateau have more significant direct repercussions for India than to any other nation [9]. Due to the fact that India, a prospective competitor, is the primary recipient of transboundary river flows originating from Tibet, China may perceive a motivation to actively exploit or redirect Tibetan river-water resources [10].
The magnitude of the Chinese strategy aimed at harnessing the resources of the Brahmaputra is unprecedented [11]. This includes proposals to construct a dam that exceeds the size of the “Three Gorges dam” by more than twofold, known as the 38-gigawatt Motuo Dam, as well as the “Super dam” on the lower levels of the Brahmaputra, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The Chinese intentions partially to alter the natural southward course of the river by redirecting it northward [12]. To which Peter Bosshard, of the International Rivers Network said, “Rivers unite us, but dams divide us,” [13]. He even points out that;
India's disregard for Bangladesh's rights while addressing China's assertion over the river. The concern is raised that the competitive rush to construct dams on the Brahmaputra by both China and India could result in cumulative environmental impacts surpassing the river's ecosystem limits. This, in turn, poses a threat to the livelihoods of over 100 million people who rely on the river.
China's ongoing dam construction initiatives along the Brahmaputra are progressively advancing towards the Great Bend region, which represents the primary concentration of water resources [14]. It is significant for hydroelectric capacity, ranking among the largest globally. However, India also started heavily investing in its infrastructure development in the north eastern states of India states of Arunachal Pradesh and the Assam, when the relations with China are trust deficit. India has also proposed a substantial USD 14.5 billion hydropower venture in the town of Yingkiong in the state, situated approximately 200km (124 miles) from its border with China [15]. The objective of this project, touted by Indian media reports as pivotal, is to produce an impressive 10 gigawatts. It is also seen as a key initiative to counter China's ambitious water diversion efforts. It is clearly evident how both the countries are in the process of “damming”, but leading large number of disparity to human kind. According to Dr Medha Bisht, Professor at the South Asian University, added in her interview at the South China Morning Post;
Over the past two decades, dams have been constructed on the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet. There is apprehension regarding China's current emphasis on the lower stretches of the river, raising concerns about potential ecological and strategic consequences. The ecological impact encompasses land degradation, alterations in sedimentation dynamics, and the risk of flash floods leading impact on millions of people. On a strategic level, there are worries about the potential use of dams to redirect water eastward.
Another point of argument comes seeing the rapid population expansion in India and China, which are now the two countries with the highest population in the world, and presents a difficult challenge. An increasing demand for water is a cause for concern to the water security of both the countries, and the possible impact it have on the lives and livelihoods of billions of people because of the unstable equilibrium. Concerns have been raised by the Indian population regarding the potential consequences of diverting the Brahmaputra River [16]. Specifically, there is apprehension that such a diversion would have a significant impact on agriculture, fishing activities and the overall welfare and livelihoods of the local community. This is due to the anticipated rise in water salinity and silting in the downstream region of the river [5]. Despite the detrimental impact of dams on downstream communities through the alteration of natural flood and drought cycles, resulting in adverse effects on the ecosystem, China treats water as a distinctive commodity. This strategic manipulation of the Brahmaputra's waters carries significant repercussions for India's water security [15].
Additionally, it is also witnessed in the case of China-India “upstream” and the “downstream” countries when their relations are good, they enter into bilateral agreements, engage on the issues and share data, but when they have any issue at the border, then it becomes a problem and always lead a huge impact on the displacement of the people residing near the transboundary rivers [17]. According to Dr Amit Ranjan, a Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies;
Water-sharing discussions and diplomatic efforts must to be kept separate, as much as possible. However, this does not actually occur. Bilateral tensions have the potential to even disrupt the minuscule data-sharing that does exist between the two countries. Water-sharing might be weaponized as a result of these tensions. In situations when there is apprehension regarding the bilateral relationship, there is also uncertainty regarding the credibility of the information that is being conveyed.
The primary objective of this paper is to discuss the India's concern in the potential acquisition of increased influence by China through water diversion, which could further tip the power balance in favor of China over India [18] and central to the argument how it would negatively impact the living conditions of the people who resides on the downstream region. The research adopts the content analysis method, using interviews conducted with experts from both India and China, and contextualize using the official reports and documents from primary and secondary resources.