In this study, we assessed the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and the risk of five fibrotic diseases (liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, primary sclerosing cholangitis, skin scar and fibrosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and systemic sclerosis) using GWAS data from the UK Biobank and Finnish Genomes. MR analysis showed no significant causal relationship between decreased serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and an elevated risk of fibrotic diseases. Our findings align with several previous epidemiological studies. For instance, initial researchers have reported no correlation between vitamin D levels and liver fibrosis, and vitamin D cannot be utilized as a predictor of the risk for fibrosis 31. In a meta-analysis involving six cross-sectional biopsy-based studies with a total of 937 subjects, Saberi et al. 32 reported that there was no significant correlation between serum vitamin 25 (OH) D levels and the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-related fibrosis (95% CI -4.17 to 2.46, P = 0.08). A recent study based on NHANES III found that late-stage fibrosis, as determined by non-invasive scoring in metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was not associated with low levels of vitamin D 33. Furthermore, in the study by Gao et al. 34, no significant difference in serum vitamin D levels was reported between patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and the healthy control group. It is worth mentioning that in another two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis, a different database was used for the analysis, and it also reported no causal relationship between vitamin D and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis 35
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Indeed, the current literature on the association between vitamin D and fibrotic diseases is inconclusive. Several clinical cohort studies have demonstrated a negative correlation between vitamin D and fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases 36–40. In a meta-analysis of the relationship between vitamin D and chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and advanced liver fibrosis (ALF) 41, 14 studies were included, of which 7 focusing on ALF (1,083 cases). The results indicated that CHC patients with vitamin D deficiency were more likely to develop ALF after antiviral treatment. Although early studies 42 indicated a negative correlation between serum vitamin D levels and fibrosis staging in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), the results showed that patients with advanced PSC (stages 3 and 4) had lower levels of serum vitamin D compared to those in stages 1 and 2. However, these studies are limited, and it is still unclear whether vitamin D is a cause, an exacerbating factor, or a consequence of fibrosis. Similarly, studies involving skin scarring, systemic sclerosis (SSc) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have also commonly reported vitamin D deficiency 43–54.
The inconsistent results in these studies may have several reasons. Firstly, most of the current studies are primarily ordinary cross-sectional observational analyses, with few large-sample, long-term follow-up, prospective randomized controlled clinical studies. The studies only examine the connection between vitamin D and fibrotic diseases at a single time point, failing to account for the fluctuation in disease progression over time, which could act as a confounding factor. Furthermore, the majority of studies were conducted at a single center, which means their findings may be applicable only to specific populations and geographical regions. Secondly, most studies did not assess potential confounding factors that could influence vitamin D levels, such as diet, circadian rhythm, seasonality, renal function, insulin resistance, gender, racial differences, genetic polymorphisms related to vitamin D synthesis and metabolism, and other variables related to vitamin D metabolism, such as parathyroid hormone. The measurement of serum vitamin D levels should aim to minimize the potential impact of confounding factors. Although some studies have attempted to account for certain confounding factors, they often rely on lifestyle adjustments rather than specific and objective data. Furthermore, because of variations in study designs and measurement methods for serum vitamin D concentrations, as well as diverse assessment indicators for fibrosis that do not always adhere to the gold standard biopsy, it is important to interpret the findings of these studies cautiously.
Multiple potential biological mechanisms can explain the negative correlation between vitamin D levels and the risk of fibrotic diseases. Studies have shown that vitamin D can increase the expression of antimicrobial peptides in different immune cells. These peptides work by directly destroying the cell membrane of various harmful microorganisms, such as bacteria, enveloped viruses, protozoa, and fungi 55,56. This suggests that sufficient vitamin D may decrease susceptibility to fibrotic diseases. Vitamin D can also suppress the expression of several matrix metalloproteinases, such as MMP-7, MMP-9, and MMP-10, in monocytes and macrophages, in order to protect tissues from damage 57. Furthermore, vitamin D can not only weaken the antigen-presenting ability of macrophages and dendritic cells 58 but also directly interfere with the activation of B cells and pathogenic T cells, which is critical for activating the immune defense 59.
The TGF-β1/Smad signaling pathway plays a critical role in tissue fibrosis. Multiple studies have shown that vitamin D regulates the activity of the TGF-β1/Smad signaling pathway in fibroblast cells by binding to the VDR receptor 60. It decreases the serum levels of various proinflammatory cytokines 61, inhibits the expression of pro-fibrotic genes such as Col-1, α-SMA, and TIMP-1, increases the expression of anti-fibrotic factors BMP7 and MMP8, reduces the deposition of extracellular matrix components such as fibronectin and collagen, and attenuates the transition of epithelial cells to mesenchymal cells, demonstrating its anti-fibrotic effects 62. However, it is important to note that while the anti-fibrotic effects of vitamin D have been demonstrated in some functional experiments, in vitro models are often simplistic and do not fully represent the complexity of the human body. Furthermore, there are concerns about using individual animal models to replicate human diseases. Therefore, additional mechanistic research is needed to better understand the relationship between vitamin D and the risk of fibrotic diseases.
This study has several distinctive features. Firstly, our analysis is the first to investigate the causal relationship between vitamin D and fibrotic diseases using GWAS data. We included five different fibrotic diseases for analysis, making the study more comprehensive. Secondly, we were very rigorous in our selection of instrumental variables (IVs) and chose highly correlated and independently inherited non-dependent SNPs as IVs to estimate the causal effect of vitamin D on the risk of fibrotic diseases. We used an F-statistic greater than 10 to assess the strength of the association between IVs and vitamin D. The GWAS datasets for vitamin D and fibrotic diseases were obtained from two different databases, reducing the potential bias from sample overlap. Finally, we employed various MR methods based on different model assumptions and carried out a series of sensitivity analyses to address the limitations of observational studies, which are vulnerable to confounding factors. As a result, our study findings are robust.
However, this study also has some limitations. Firstly, the GWAS biobank included in the analysis is derived from European populations, which reduces the reliability of generalizing the study results to other populations. Secondly, the study includes a relatively small number of cases for fibrotic diseases, which may lead to false negatives. Therefore, more data with larger sample sizes are needed for validation. Thirdly, due to the use of aggregated-level data, it was not possible to conduct gender-specific and age-stratified effects analysis. Lastly, like any Mendelian randomization study, this study cannot completely rule out the potential influence of pleiotropy, although we did not find evidence of horizontal pleiotropy.