Delayed recovery of Atlantic meridional ocean circulation threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions

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Delayed recovery of Atlantic meridional ocean circulation threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3831926/v1

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Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial carbon uptake and agricultural productivity, particularly in Europe, remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth system model of full complexity to investigate the response of Gross Primary Production (GPP) in the region.

Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry in the GPP response to CO2 ramp-up and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, indicating that GPP at lowering atmospheric CO2 levels is more efficiently reduced than those at raising CO2. Remarkably, during the CO2 removal period, the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature (NASST) experienced cooling due to a delayed recovery of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cooling led to precipitation and soil moisture deficits, resulting in a rapid reduction in GPP. This asymmetry in GPP response holds consistent across multi-model simulations. These results underscore the potential implications of delayed recovery in ocean circulation, which could unexpectedly accelerate terrestrial GPP reduction. These insights are crucial for policymakers, aiding them in projecting agricultural activity and formulating targeted GPP control policies specific to the European region.

Earth and environmental sciences/Biogeochemistry/Carbon cycle

Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change

Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology

Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science

In the context of the Paris Agreement's global warming targets, it is imperative to evaluate the potential consequences of artificial carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere on both climate and ecosystems^1-4. Many studies have primarily concentrated on examining how global temperature respond to positive and negative CO2 concentration trends^5-9. Recent studies utilizing Earth system models have addressed the climate variability response to net negative CO2 emissions^10-22. Europe is one of the major sources of CO2 emissions^23-24, and it is well known that the impact of the carbon cycle on climate extremes and agricultural productivity will increase as CO2 emissions rise^24-25. Despite significant advancements in understanding these relationships, the effects of climate-carbon cycle interactions on terrestrial productivity in Europe during scenarios involving net CO2 removal remain unclear. To address this issue, we conducted comprehensive simulations using the Earth system model (see Method) with full complexity. The model was subjected to a 140-year experiment, during which CO2 concentration was either increased by 1% ('ramp-up phase') (2000-2140 years) or decreased by 1% ('ramp-down phase') (2141-2280 years). The maximum CO2 concentration was set at 1468 ppm (Fig. 1a, black line), while all other external forcing factors were fixed at present values.

Extremely rapid reduction in GPP during CO2 removal scenario

European gross primary productivity (GPP) during boreal summer exhibited a significant increase during the ramp-up phase (2000-2140) of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (Fig. 1a), reaching levels as high as 25-30 g C month^-1 (Fig. 1d), which correlated with notably higher 2m temperatures (Fig. 1a). Conversely, during the ramp-down phase, there was a steep decline in GPP, and it returned to its original state 30% faster than anticipated (Fig. 1d), despite a symmetrical decrease in temperature compared to the ramp-up phase (Fig. 1a). Our hypothesis suggests that this remarkably rapid reduction in GPP during the ramp-down phase may be attributed to an asymmetrical response in precipitation and associated soil moisture over Europe. The results reveal that precipitation over Europe showed a consistent decreasing trend during the ramp-up phase, while its recovery during the ramp-down phase was notably slow, particularly between 2141 and 2220 years (Fig. 1b). Similarly, soil moisture exhibited a notable asymmetry between the ramp-up and ramp-down phases. It declined with increasing CO2 emissions, did not recover, and continued to decrease until 2170, despite a 25% reduction in CO2 concentration (Fig. 1c). This lack of recovery of soil moisture, especially in western and southern Europe, was partly carried over from the precipitation and strong soil moisture deficit during the previous spring (see Supplementary Fig. S1d and S1e). Note that the model showed reduced local evaporation during the ramp-up phase and a significant delay in its recovery during the ramp-down phase, implying that local evaporation was associated with the soil moisture deficit (see Supplementary Fig. S1a).

The question that arises from these results is what causes this asymmetry in precipitation and soil moisture. It is well known that the North Atlantic Ocean influences Europe's climate^27-30. We examined the asymmetry in SST in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean. Figure 1e shows changes in SST over the North Atlantic Ocean between the ramp-up and ramp-down phases, revealing a strong asymmetric response: SST increases continuously during the ramp-up phase, but it rapidly drops and returns to its initial state after 40 years from the maximum CO2 year. Subsequently, it undergoes a further reduction of -3°C until 2250 and experiences a slight increase towards the end of the ramp-down phase (Fig. 1e, purple line). Interestingly, the temporal evolution of SST over the North Atlantic Ocean resembles that of soil moisture and GPP over Europe (Fig. 1c and 1d). Previous studies have suggested that during the ramp-down phase, changes in North Atlantic SST are influenced by the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC)^31-33. We further investigated the AMOC response to both the ramp-up and ramp-down phases. During the ramp-up phase, the AMOC significantly weakened. However, during the ramp-down phase, the AMOC did not show signs of strengthening; instead, it continuously weakened until 2200 years, followed by a gradual recovery (Fig. 1e, black line). The weakened meridional advection of salinity contributes to the delayed recovery of AMOC^31-32. This extremely delayed recovery in AMOC resulted in a reduction in meridional heat transport to the high latitudes of the North Atlantic^31-33, leading to rapid cooling there during the CO2 removal period.

Next, we analyzed the horizontal pattern of asymmetry in GPP and its relationship with different climatic factors. Across most of Europe, accumulated GPP was significantly lower during the ramp-down phase compared to the ramp-up phase (Fig. 1i). The largest differences in accumulated GPP were observed in regions such as Spain, France, Finland, Serbia and Romania (15-25 g C m^-2 month^-1). We also examined the differences in accumulated precipitation between the ramp-up and ramp-down phases, and these differences showed negative values for most of Europe except Turkey. The spatial pattern of these differences was consistent with that of GPP (Fig. 1g). The accumulated soil moisture deficit during the ramp-down period was particularly pronounced in central and western Europe, especially in France, Germany, and England (Fig. 1h), contributing to a significant reduction in GPP there. Southern Europe, spanning from Spain to Ukraine, also experienced a significant reduction in GPP during the ramp-down period, possibly due to a substantial deficit in previous spring precipitation and soil moisture (Supplementary Figs. S1d and S1e). Note that temperature in southern Europe showed weak warming during the ramp-down phase compared to the ramp-up phase (Fig. 1f), suggesting that warming played a minor role in GPP changes due to the overriding effect of severe water limitation there. In northern Europe, rapidly cooling temperatures may contribute to a rapid decrease in GPP rather than soil moisture deficit, which only occurs in the southern part of the Scandinavian peninsula.

Furthermore, we examined the changes in SST over the North Atlantic Ocean, revealing intensive cooling in the high latitudes, with a peak located south of Greenland, significantly influencing European climate conditions (Fig. 1j). Overall, the reduction in GPP during the ramp-down phase follows the pattern of precipitation in central and southern regions of Europe and was strongly impacted by extreme soil water limitations during previous spring. Therefore, we hypothesized that the rapid decline in GPP during ramp down phase is driven by atmospheric teleconnections triggered by North Atlantic SST cooling and the associated slow recovery of AMOC (Fig. 1e). To further explore this hypothesis, we employed both observational data and numerical models in our analysis.

European climate and GPP changes driven by North Atlantic SST

Figure 2 shows the regressed ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial anomalies onto SST over the high latitude of the North Atlantic Ocean using observation and reanalysis data. To analyze the impact of North Atlantic SST on gross primary productivity, we utilized near-infrared reflectance (NIR) data from 2003 to 2018^34-35. The NIR data revealed a profound reduction in GPP in central and eastern Europe during periods of cooled North Atlantic SST, with a substantial coefficient of 15-20 g C m^-2 month^-1 K^-1 (Fig. 2d). This reduction accounted for approximately 10-15% of the climatological GPP (Supplementary Fig. S2). It was particularly noticeable in temperate deciduous and coniferous Mediterranean forests, as they are highly sensitive to water availability³⁶. The cooling of North Atlantic SST also led to a significant decrease in precipitation by 70-80% of the average and soil water deficit by 60-70% of climatology in central Europe. These climate conditions are likely to favor decreases in vegetation activity, resulting in a reduced carbon sink^37-43. Note that NASST cooling led to positive temperature anomalies over central Europe, but these anomalies did not contribute to the reduction in GPP significantly under strong water limit stress conditions⁴³.

The cooling of SST leads to the development of a surface low-pressure system. In the southeastern counterpart of this surface low, there is a surface high-pressure system present over Europe (Fig. 2f). It is observed that the easterlies along the southern of this high-pressure system act as a drought source, inducing dry air and reducing precipitation (Fig. 2b) and soil moisture there (Fig. 2c). Noted that local evaporation in Europe was linked to reduced precipitation (Supplementary Fig. S3). A large-scale clear sky developed in Europe, while a cloudy sky was observed in the high latitude of the North Atlantic Ocean (Fig. 2e, contour). This cloud pattern is related to the southeast-tilted pressure system and further reduced rainfall over Europe. The increased cloud cover in the North Atlantic Ocean (Fig. 2e, shading) leads to less shortwave radiation (Supplementary Fig. S4) and sustains the cooling of SST, which may contribute to the reduced terrestrial productivity over Europe⁴³.

To further investigate causality, we employed an Earth System Model (ESM) in our study. To quantify the impact of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (NASST) on terrestrial productivity across Europe, we conducted an idealized simulation with the ESM. In this simulation, we imposed nearly uniform +1°C anomalies on the climatological SST on the high latitudes of the North Atlantic region ('NASST+1°C') and, conversely, reduced SST by -1°C ('NASST-1°C') (box in fig. 1j, See Methods). Figure 2 (g to l) illustrates the differences in climate and ecosystems between NASST-1°C and NASST+1°C. The model results successfully replicate the reduction in precipitation (Fig. 2h), corresponding soil moisture (Fig. 2i), and decreased terrestrial productivity (Fig. 2j) over Europe due to NASS cooling. Note that the model exhibits a slight deviation in simulating the extent of reduced GPP, extending slightly farther southward when compared to observations. Furthermore, the model successfully reproduces the dipole pattern of the pressure system, with anomalous high pressure in Europe, and anomalous lows in the North Atlantic Ocean with anticyclonic anomalies (Fig. 2k and 2l). Additionally, the model demonstrates its capability to simulate the reduced moisture transport from the North Atlantic Ocean to Europe (Supplementary Fig. S5b), resulting in reduced rainfall and soil moisture in Europe. Notably, changes in local evaporation mainly occur in southern Europe, suggesting that it did not significantly contribute to the observed soil moisture deficit (Supplementary Fig. S5a).

To further confirm the robustness of the link between climate conditions and European terrestrial productivity, we analyzed the large ensemble simulation data (see Method). The results from the ensemble simulations show a significant positive relationship between GPP and precipitation response (Supplementary Fig. S6a), consistent with the findings observed in the difference between the 'NASST-1°C' and 'NASST+1°C' experiments. Moreover, the results indicate a strong correlation between soil moisture and GPP (Supplementary Fig. S6b). In summary, the cooling of SST at high latitudes leads to decreased land productivity and carbon sink through its influence on European climate conditions. Therefore, the rapid reduction in GPP during the CO2 removal period, which we advocate in this study, can be explained by the rapid cooling of NASST.

Atlantic meridional ocean circulation-induced Sea surface temperature cooling

It has been known that NASST is affected by ocean circulation such as AMOC, net surface fluxes from the atmosphere, and interaction with Arctic sea ice in high latitudes^32-34,44. The AMOC was weakened with increasing CO2 concentration and tended to very slowly recover during CO2 removal periods. However, the AMOC-induced NASST cooling in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean was revealed by weakened meridional oceanic advection from the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic Ocean^31-33. The oceanic meridional heat advection was weakened during the ramp-up phase and much weakened during the ramp-down phase, suggesting that this mainly contributes to SST cooling. Note that surface net heat fluxes were neglectable for changes in SST during the ramp-down phase^31-32.

More solid support for the AMOC control over SST comes from our ESM-based ensemble simulations in which different initial conditions for AMOC were imposed over the North Atlantic region. When the AMOC was strongly weakened in the North Atlantic Ocean, the SST was more cooled. Figure 3a shows the positive relationship between AMOC and NASST during the ramp-down phase is very significant with a correlation coefficient of 0.89, suggesting that AMOC controls the NASST cooling. We further explored NASST and GPP over Europe and the result showed a strong positive link between NASST and GPP with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 (Fig. 3b). These additional findings provide further support for our hypothesized link between terrestrial GPP and North Atlantic SST, mediated by favorable climate conditions for terrestrial productivity. Cumulatively, these results suggest a strong linkage between weakened AMOC and fast reduction in European GPP in CO2 removal experiments.

Asymmetry in European GPP from multi-model simulations

To assess the model dependency regarding the impact of NASST on asymmetry in European GPP, we conducted an analysis using multi-model simulation data from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP) (Methods). Figure 4 displayed the differences in climate and ecosystems between the ramp-up and ramp-down phases using the multi-model ensemble mean data. The results from CDRMIP show cooling of NASST, which is consistent with the findings in our model simulations, although the magnitude of the cooling is relatively smaller than that simulated in our model (Fig. 4e). Nonetheless, this NASST cooling still leads to precipitation and soil moisture deficits (Fig. 4b and 4c), albeit with a relatively weaker amplitude due to the weakened NASST cooling. It was found that the largest soil moisture deficit in regions such as France, England, and the Balkan Peninsula, was similar to those found in our simulations. This specific climate condition induces a rapid reduction in GPP over Europe, and the horizontal pattern of the reduction resembles that seen in our simulation (Fig. 4d). Based on these comprehensive analyses, it is evident that the fast reduction in GPP resulting from CO2 removal experiments is a common result in various model simulations. The consistency among different models indicates that this phenomenon is highly probable, with a strong likelihood of occurrence across various scenarios.

In conclusion, understanding the link between NASST cooling and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for effective climate adaptation and sustainable resource management. The cooling of NASST, driven by the delayed recovery of AMOC during the ramp-down phase, leads to significant precipitation and soil moisture deficits. These adverse climate conditions result in a 40% faster reduction in European GPP than anticipated. The rapid decline in GPP is robustly supported by both inter-ensemble and multi-model analyses. This information has vital implications for social and economic policymakers, as the warm and dry climate not only triggers extreme weather events like flash droughts but also diminishes agricultural productivity.

In this study, we prescribed CO2 concentrations and did not consider their interaction with the ocean and land ecosystems. To address this limitation and achieve a more realistic representation of the global carbon cycle and its impact on climate and terrestrial productivity, we need to conduct additional model experiments using CO2 emission-driven scenarios. These scenarios account for changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from land and ocean biogeochemical processes. This issue will be studied in further studies.

Diagnosis of the observed data

To obtain the monthly mean SST, we used the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSST)⁴⁵. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are obtained from Climatic Research Unit CRU TS4.04⁴⁷ (https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.04/). Total cloud fraction, wind, radiation, and geopotential height are from the NCEP2-DOE reanalysis data⁴⁸ (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html). For evaporation and soil moisture, we used the GLEAMv3.7 data^49–50 (https://www.gleam.eu). For the gross primary productivity (GPP) over land, we used near-infrared reflectance (NIR) (g C m − 2 mon − 1), which is based on vegetation absorbing blue- and red-light energy to fuel photosynthesis (2003–2018)^34,35.

CO2 removal experiment using CESM model

This study utilized the Community Earth System Model version 1.2⁵¹ (CESM1.2), which consists of the following components: the atmosphere (Community Atmospheric Model version 5, CAM5), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program version 2, POP2), sea ice (Community Ice Code version 4, CICE4), and land models (Community Land Model version 4, CLM4). The atmospheric model has a horizontal resolution of approximately 1° and comprises 30 vertical levels. The ocean model features 60 vertical levels with a longitudinal resolution of 1° and a latitudinal resolution of 0.3° near the equator, gradually increasing to 0.5° near the poles. The land model incorporates the carbon-nitrogen cycle.

Two idealized CO2 pathways were employed (see Fig. 1a): the constant and varying scenarios. These scenarios closely followed the protocol of the carbon cycle reversibility experiment (CDR-reversibility), except for the initial CO2 level⁵². The constant CO2 experiment spanned 900 years, with a constant CO2 concentration of 367 ppm, representing the Present-Day period (PD). Subsequently, the varying CO2 scenario, comprising 28 ensemble members, was implemented. In this scenario, CO2 concentration increased by 1% per year for 140 years, reaching quadruple the initial level (i.e., 1468 ppm; ramp-up period). This was immediately followed by a symmetric decrease (approximately 1% per year) for 140 years until the CO2 concentration returned to the initial level (367 ppm; ramp-down period). Finally, the model simulated a constant CO2 scenario (367 ppm), representing net-zero emissions, for 220 years (restoring period). The 28 ensemble members were identical except for their atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions, which included different phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation⁵³ and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the PD period

Sensitivity of the SST over North Atlantic on climate and terrestrial productivity.

To investigate the response of European GPP to changes in SST, we conducted experiments using the AGCM, which consists of CAM5 and CLM4, under present-day conditions. SST data were obtained from the monthly climatology of HadlSST for the years 1982–2000, with prescribed SST anomalies of + 1°C (NASST + 1°C) and − 1°C (NASST-1°C) uniformly over the North Atlantic region (as shown in the box in Fig. 1j, 50°W-20°W, 40°N-60°N). Twenty ensembles with twenty different initial conditions were used. The significance level of the difference between NASST + 1°C and NASST-1°C conditions was determined using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample test.

CDRMIP model simulation data

The climate and carbon cycle reversibility experiment from the CMIP6 Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP) was analyzed to investigate the GPP response to large-scale CO2 removal. This experiment was branched from the 1pctCO2 experiment, in which the CO2 level increases at a rate of 1% yr^− 1 from pre-industrial levels for 140 years from pre-industrial level to quadrupling. Then, a 1% yr^− 1 removal of CO2 from the atmosphere is prescribed for 140 years until the pre-industrial CO2 level is reached and then held for as long as possible (1pctCO2-cdr simulation). We used seven ESMs (ACCESS-ESM1-5, CESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, GFDL-ESM4, MIROC-ES2L, NorESM2-LM, and UKESM1-0-LL), which were coupled with the full carbon cycle and performed the CDR-reversibility experiment.

Data availability

All observed data used in this study are publicly available (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/ data.20thC_ReanV3.html; https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html). The data can be downloaded from https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/CHL-GPP_carbon_chain/ 19771102.

Code availability

The codes used in this study can be downloaded here: https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/NACHL-EUGPP_ codes/19771150.

Author contributions statement

Y.-M.Y., S.-I.A., and J.-S.K. conceived the idea. J.-S.S. and S.-W.P. performed the model experiments and analyses. Y.-M.Y., S.-I.A., J.-S.K., J.-S.S.,J.-Y.L.,B.W.,T.L., and S.-W.P. wrote the manuscript. All authors provided critical feedback and helped shape the research, analysis, and manuscript.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Acknowledgments

Y.-M.Y. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC042088101) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2022R1A2C1013296). S.-I.A. is supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (NRF-2018R1A5A1024958).

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Delayed recovery of Atlantic meridional ocean circulation threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions

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Abstract

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Main text

Extremely rapid reduction in GPP during CO2 removal scenario

European climate and GPP changes driven by North Atlantic SST

Atlantic meridional ocean circulation-induced Sea surface temperature cooling

Asymmetry in European GPP from multi-model simulations

Discussion

Methods

Diagnosis of the observed data

CO2 removal experiment using CESM model

CDRMIP model simulation data

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Author contributions statement

Competing interests

Acknowledgments

References

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Supplementary Files

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