Descriptives and comparative analyses
The study included 2,558 women aged 50 to 69 with a BC diagnosis between 2010 and 2019. The average age at diagnosis was 59.3 years for women within and 60.7 years outside the MSP (see table 1). Geographically, more BC cases are within the MSP in the canton of St.Gallen, compared to the more rural canton of Grisons (p<0.05).
Table 1: Patient and tumor characteristics
|
All observations
|
within MSP
|
outside MSP
|
Test for differences within vs. outside MSP
|
|
N
|
Mean (SD) / Proportion %
|
N
|
Mean (SD) / Proportion %
|
N
|
Mean (SD) / Proportion %
|
p-value
|
Age
|
2,558
|
60.1 (6.0)
|
1,057
|
59.3 (6.2)
|
1,501
|
60.7 (5.9)
|
p < 0.05
|
Birthplace (%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p = 0.30
|
outside Switzerland
|
669
|
26.2%
|
265
|
25.1%
|
404
|
26.9%
|
|
in Switzerland
|
1,889
|
73.8%
|
792
|
74.9%
|
1,097
|
73.1%
|
|
Canton (%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p < 0.05
|
Grisons
|
726
|
28.4%
|
258
|
24.4%
|
468
|
31.2%
|
|
St. Gallen
|
1,832
|
71.6%
|
799
|
75.6%
|
1,033
|
68.8%
|
|
Stage distribution (%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p < 0.05
|
In-Situ
|
316
|
12.4%
|
185
|
17.5%
|
131
|
8.7%
|
|
I
|
987
|
38.6%
|
491
|
46.5%
|
496
|
33.0%
|
|
II
|
821
|
32.1%
|
290
|
27.4%
|
531
|
35.4%
|
|
III
|
231
|
9.0%
|
66
|
6.2%
|
165
|
11.0%
|
|
IV
|
203
|
7.9%
|
25
|
2.4%
|
178
|
11.9%
|
|
Mean tumor size
|
2,390
|
22.7 (18.9)
|
1,012
|
19.3 (16.4)
|
1,378
|
25.3 (20.3)
|
p < 0.05
|
Tumor Size < 2cm
|
1,307
|
54.7%
|
659
|
65.1%
|
648
|
47.0%
|
p < 0.05
|
Tumor Size < 5cm
|
2,208
|
92.4%
|
962
|
95.1%
|
1,246
|
90.4%
|
p < 0.05
|
Lymph nodes involvement
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p < 0.05
|
positive (N1+)
|
907
|
35.7%
|
275
|
26.1%
|
632
|
42.4%
|
|
negative (N0)
|
1,637
|
64.3%
|
778
|
73.9%
|
859
|
57.6%
|
|
Hormone receptor
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p = 0.21
|
positive
|
2,146
|
90.8%
|
872
|
91.7%
|
1,274
|
90.2%
|
|
negative
|
218
|
9.2%
|
79
|
8.3%
|
139
|
9.8%
|
|
Estrogen receptors
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p = 0.19
|
positive
|
2,135
|
90.5%
|
868
|
91.5%
|
1,267
|
89.9%
|
|
negative
|
224
|
9.5%
|
81
|
8.5%
|
143
|
10.1%
|
|
Progesterone receptors
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p < 0.05
|
positive
|
1,774
|
76.5%
|
740
|
78.6%
|
1,034
|
75.0%
|
|
negative
|
546
|
23.5%
|
201
|
21.4%
|
345
|
25.0%
|
|
Ki-67 proliferation index
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p < 0.05
|
high (i.e. ≥ 25%)
|
825
|
38.7%
|
293
|
34.4%
|
532
|
41.5%
|
|
low (i.e. < 25%)
|
1,307
|
61.3%
|
558
|
65.6%
|
749
|
58.5%
|
|
Grading
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p < 0.05
|
Grade I
|
367
|
16.7%
|
200
|
23.0%
|
167
|
12.6%
|
|
Grade II
|
1,170
|
53.3%
|
464
|
53.3%
|
706
|
53.2%
|
|
Grade III
|
660
|
30.0%
|
206
|
23.7%
|
454
|
34.2%
|
|
HER2 over expression
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p = 0.58
|
positive
|
341
|
15.5%
|
128
|
14.9%
|
213
|
15.8%
|
|
negative
|
1,863
|
84.5%
|
729
|
85.1%
|
1,134
|
84.2%
|
|
Tumor stage distribution of women within the MSP is significantly different from women outside the MSP (p<0.05). Figure 2 displays the corresponding distributions and shows that BC within the MSP are diagnosed at earlier stages with fewer locally advanced and metastatic characteristics. In particular, within the MSP 17.5% of BC are in the in-situ stage (vs. 8.7% outside the MSP) and further 46.5% are detected in stage I (vs. 33.0%). Finally, only 6.2 and 2.4% of BC cases within the MSP have stages III and IV (vs. 11.0 and 11.9%). Moreover, lymph node involvement (26.1 vs. 42.4%) and tumor sizes (19.3 vs. 25.3mm) are significantly different. Other significant differences between the two groups can be found for positivity of progesterone receptors (78.6% vs. 75.0%), Ki-67 (34.4% vs. 41.5%) and the distribution of the histologic grading – with a more favorable grading for BC within compared to outside the MSP.
Treatment and survival analyses
As can be seen in table 2, treatments of women within the MSP were less aggressive and less burdensome than for women outside the MSP, which is reflected by half the rate of radical mastectomies (8.9% vs. 17.7%, p<0.05) and a significantly lower proportion of patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy (27.6% vs 39.9%, p<0.05). Treatment was significantly more often performed within certified breast centers for women within the MSP. Noteworthy, the share of treated women in certified breast centers has changed over time. For instance, the first breast centers were certified in 2012 and the overall fraction of patients treated in breast centers has increased from 3.2% to 69.9% in 2019.
Table 2: Comparative analyses of treatment and survival data
|
All observations
|
within MSP
|
outside MSP
|
Test for differences within vs. outside MSP
|
|
N
|
Proportion in %
|
N
|
Proportion in %
|
N
|
Proportion in %
|
p-value
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Certified Breast Centers
|
590
|
23.1%
|
318
|
30.1%
|
272
|
18.1%
|
p < 0.05
|
Radical Mastectomy
|
358
|
14.0%
|
92
|
8.7%
|
266
|
17.7%
|
p < 0.05
|
Adjuvant Chemotherapy
|
899
|
35.1%
|
294
|
27.8%
|
605
|
40.3%
|
p < 0.05
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recurrence or metastasis in the follow-up period
|
281
|
11.0%
|
63
|
6.0%
|
218
|
14.5%
|
p < 0.05
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall survival
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-year
|
1839
|
90.6%
|
789
|
97.1%
|
1050
|
86.2%
|
p < 0.05
|
10-year
|
651
|
80.9%
|
202
|
92.2%
|
449
|
73.9%
|
p < 0.05
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In-situ
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-year
|
255
|
98.4%
|
148
|
98.9%
|
108
|
97.7%
|
Not significant
|
10-year
|
94
|
94.6%
|
45
|
95.5%
|
50
|
93.3%
|
Not significant
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stage I
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-year
|
743
|
97.0%
|
370
|
98.7%
|
373
|
95.4%
|
p < 0.05
|
10-year
|
261
|
90.6%
|
94
|
96.3%
|
168
|
85.8%
|
p < 0.05
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stage II
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-year
|
622
|
94.6%
|
221
|
98.6%
|
402
|
92.5%
|
p < 0.05
|
10-year
|
223
|
83.6%
|
55
|
90.7%
|
169
|
80.4%
|
Not significant
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stage III
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-year
|
162
|
86.5%
|
44
|
91.3%
|
120
|
84.7%
|
Not significant
|
10-year
|
59
|
68.8%
|
9
|
76.6%
|
51
|
66.3%
|
Not significant
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stage IV
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-year
|
60
|
36.3%
|
10
|
49.1%
|
51
|
34.5%
|
Not significant
|
10-year
|
17
|
18.1%
|
3
|
36.4%
|
15
|
16.2%
|
Not significant
|
Note: Survival rates are derived from Kaplan-Meier estimates.
|
Furthermore, table 2 shows that the survival rates were significantly higher for women within the MSP. The difference in the survival rates increased over time, where 1-year survival rates differed by 2.6 percentage points (pp) (99.7% vs 97.1%), the 5-year survival rate already differed by 10.9pp (97.1% vs. 86.2%) and the 10-year survival rate by 18.2pp (92.2% vs. 73.9%). Similar differences were also observed for the subgroups of tumor stage I and II. Other stages have a fairly low number of cases but show similar, albeit insignificant patterns.
Treatment and survival analyses (comparative, Kaplan Meier curves, Cox proportional hazards regressions)
Figure 3 depicts the survival probabilities over time. While the difference in survival increases over time, the differences are at almost all points in time significant. The overall Kaplan Meier hazard ratio (HR) of within vs. outside the MSP is 0.250 for all BC cases. These significant better outcomes for women within the MSP persist, albeit to a fewer magnitude, for the subgroups of stage I and II, that account for 71% of diagnosed BC cases. Moreover, Figure 3b shows the lead-time corrected Kaplan Meier curve for all tumor groups. The lead-time correction moved down the survival curve for women within the MSP, but survival was still significantly better for women within the MSP. Confidence intervals become large over time as sample size within MSP shrinks due to the lead-time correction.
Furthermore, figure 4 shows, that the survival curve of BC specific survival is higher than for overall survival. For instance, 10-year BC survival lies at 96.5% for women within the MSP vs at 92.5% for overall survival (82.5% vs 74.0% for BC outside MSP). The Kaplan Meier HR of BC related mortality of within MSP vs outside MSP is lower (0.197) than that of overall mortality (0.250) between these groups. This pattern is also true for the lead-time corrected Kaplan-Meier curve.
Table 3 displays HR for overall mortality from six specifications of the Cox proportional hazards regression model, from a simple specification (1) only including whether the woman participated in the MSP or not, to controlling for different variables (3) and (5). Specifications (2), (4), and (6) show results for lead-time corrected survival times. Specification (1) shows that women within the MSP had a 75.0% lower hazard of mortality (HR: 0.250, p<0.01). When only looking at BC-related mortality, the HR was 0.197 (p<0.01) (see table A1 in the Appendix). The HR of the program remained similar when accounted for age (3). When additionally controlled for tumor stages (5), the effect of the MSP decreased (HR: 0.445; p<0.01) but was still large and significant. The higher the tumor stage, the higher was the hazard of mortality. Women diagnosed with stage IV had a ~27-times higher hazard of mortality than women with in-situ carcinomas. Analogue to the Kaplan-Meier estimators, specifications (2), (4) and (6) show that HR were higher for lead-time corrected estimates. Nevertheless, whether controlled for age, or for age and tumor stage distribution, the MSP still had a significant favorable effect on survival (HR between 0.414 and 0.677, p<0.01). For most models, proportional hazard assumptions did not hold, as survival effects were increasing with time (see figure 3). HRs for BC-related mortality were shown in table A1 in the Appendix. Additionally, table A2 in the Appendix shows, that when accounting for age, Ki-67 proliferation index, and tumor size, hazard of women within the MSP was still significantly lower than for women outside the MSP (HR: 0.332, p<0.01). This was also true for lead-time corrected survival (HR: 0.553, p<0.01) and controlled for tumor stages (HR: 0.708, p<0.05).
Table 3: Hazard ratios for overall mortality calculated through cox proportional hazards regression models
|
Models
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hazard ratios
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
Screening program
|
0.250*** (0.188, 0.333)
|
0.391*** (0.293, 0.523)
|
0.263*** (0.198, 0.349)
|
0.414*** (0.310, 0.553)
|
0.445*** (0.332, 0.597)
|
0.677*** (0.504, 0.908)
|
Age
|
|
|
1.046*** (1.028, 1.064)
|
1.046*** (1.028, 1.064)
|
1.040*** (1.021, 1.059)
|
1.039*** (1.021, 1.058)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UICC TMN tumor stage (baseline in-situ)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I
|
|
|
|
|
1.464 (0.806, 2.658)
|
1.446 (0.796, 2.625)
|
II
|
|
|
|
|
2.358*** (1.318, 4.217)
|
2.262*** (1.265, 4.041)
|
III
|
|
|
|
|
5.167*** (2.821, 9.463)
|
4.810*** (2.630, 8.797)
|
IV
|
|
|
|
|
27.507*** (15.477, 48.885)
|
25.667*** (14.478, 45.504)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Control factors
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Age
|
|
|
x
|
x
|
x
|
x
|
UICC-TNM tumor stage
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
x
|
Lead-time corrected
|
|
x
|
|
x
|
|
x
|
Model statistics
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No. of observations
|
2,558
|
2,558
|
2,558
|
2,558
|
2,558
|
2,558
|
Proportional-hazards assumption holds
|
no
|
no
|
yes
|
no
|
no
|
no
|
Prob > Chi2
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|