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Characteristics and prognostic factors of COVID-19 among infected cases: A nationwide Tunisian analysis
Chahida Harizi
Abderrahman Mami Hospital
Corresponding Author
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Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern. Few data are available on the duration and prognostic factors of the disease. We aimed to study the recovery time among a Tunisian cohort of COVID-19 confirmed patients and identify the prognostic factors.
Methods: A retrospective, nationwide study was conducted from March 2 to May 8, 2020, recruiting all patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19, by RT-PCR methods, in Tunisia. Data were collected via phone call interview. Kaplan-Meir Methods and Cox proportional hazards regression models were, respectively, used to study the recovery time and estimate its prognostic factors.
Results: One thousand and thirty patients with COVID-19 (aged 43.2 ± 18.2 years, 526 female (51.1%)) were enrolled. Among them 141 (14.8%) were healthcare professionals. Out of 173 patients (17.8%) admitted to the hospital, 47 were admitted in an intensive care unit. Among 827 patients who didn’t require specialized care, 55.5% were self-isolated at home, while the rest were in specialized centers. Six hundred and two patients were symptomatic. A total of 634 (61.6 %) patients have recovered and 45 (4.4 %) patients died. The median duration of illness was estimated to be 31 days (95% CI: [29 - 32]). Older age (HR=0.66, CI:[ 0.46-0.96], P=0.031) and symptoms (HR=0.61, CI:[ 0.43-0.81], P=0.021) were independently associated with a delay in recovery time. Being a healthcare professional (HR=1.52, CI :[1.10-2.08], P=0.011) and patients in home isolation compared to isolation centers (HR=2.99, CI :[1.85-4.83], P<10¯³) were independently associated with faster recovery time.
Conclusion: The duration of illness was estimated to be one month. However, this long estimated duration of illness may not equate to infectiousness. A particular attention must to be paid to elderly and symptomatic patients with closer monitoring.
Keywords
COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, prognosis factors, Clinical characteristics
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This preprint is under consideration at BMC Infectious Diseases. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research article
Characteristics and prognostic factors of COVID-19 among infected cases: A nationwide Tunisian analysis
Chahida Harizi
Abderrahman Mami Hospital
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Revision
Version 4
Posted 21 Jan, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 14 Jan, 2021
Editor assigned
On 12 Jan, 2021
Submission checks complete
On 12 Jan, 2021
Editor invited
On 12 Jan, 2021
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 05 Jan, 2021
Editor assigned
On 07 Dec, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 07 Dec, 2020
Editor invited
On 07 Dec, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 28 Nov, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 24 Nov, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 20 Nov, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 10 Nov, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 09 Nov, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 09 Nov, 2020
Editor assigned
On 08 Nov, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 08 Nov, 2020
Editor invited
On 08 Nov, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 28 Sep, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 26 Sep, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 26 Sep, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 12 Sep, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 14 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 11 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 03 Aug, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 28 Jul, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Jul, 2020
First submitted
On 01 Jul, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 01 Jul, 2020
Editor invited
On 01 Jul, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern. Few data are available on the duration and prognostic factors of the disease. We aimed to study the recovery time among a Tunisian cohort of COVID-19 confirmed patients and identify the prognostic factors.
Methods: A retrospective, nationwide study was conducted from March 2 to May 8, 2020, recruiting all patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19, by RT-PCR methods, in Tunisia. Data were collected via phone call interview. Kaplan-Meir Methods and Cox proportional hazards regression models were, respectively, used to study the recovery time and estimate its prognostic factors.
Results: One thousand and thirty patients with COVID-19 (aged 43.2 ± 18.2 years, 526 female (51.1%)) were enrolled. Among them 141 (14.8%) were healthcare professionals. Out of 173 patients (17.8%) admitted to the hospital, 47 were admitted in an intensive care unit. Among 827 patients who didn’t require specialized care, 55.5% were self-isolated at home, while the rest were in specialized centers. Six hundred and two patients were symptomatic. A total of 634 (61.6 %) patients have recovered and 45 (4.4 %) patients died. The median duration of illness was estimated to be 31 days (95% CI: [29 - 32]). Older age (HR=0.66, CI:[ 0.46-0.96], P=0.031) and symptoms (HR=0.61, CI:[ 0.43-0.81], P=0.021) were independently associated with a delay in recovery time. Being a healthcare professional (HR=1.52, CI :[1.10-2.08], P=0.011) and patients in home isolation compared to isolation centers (HR=2.99, CI :[1.85-4.83], P<10¯³) were independently associated with faster recovery time.
Conclusion: The duration of illness was estimated to be one month. However, this long estimated duration of illness may not equate to infectiousness. A particular attention must to be paid to elderly and symptomatic patients with closer monitoring.
Figure 1
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Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5