3.1 Descriptive study of animal population
The study involved 60 (75.94%) goat farms and 19 (24.1%) sheep farms; from which, a total of 277 (77.59%) goat samples and 80 (22.41%) sheep blood samples were collected and tested for brucellosis. The median ages of goat and sheep populations were 1.5 years each, while the mean ages of goat and sheep population were 2.1 ± 1.1 and 1.9 ± 1.7 years, respectively. The median flock sizes of the goat and sheep farms were 48 and 100, while the mean flock sizes were 66 ± 11, 93 ± 4, respectively. The characteristics of goat and sheep population are depicted in Table 1.
Table 1: Comparison of population characteristics for studied goat and sheep population.
|
|
Descriptive statistics
|
Species
|
Variables
|
Mean ± SE
|
Min.
|
Q1
|
Median
|
Q3
|
Max.
|
Sheep (n =80)
|
Age (years)
|
1.9±1.7
|
0.2
|
1
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flock size
|
93±4
|
12
|
65
|
100
|
120
|
150
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Goat (n=277)
|
Age (years)
|
2.1±1.1
|
0.2
|
1
|
2
|
2.5
|
13
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flock size
|
66±11
|
20
|
30
|
48
|
60
|
550
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
From the survey, 15 % (12/80) of sheep were either purchased from nearby herds or brought from India, while 37.6 % (104/277) of the goats were either collected from neighbouring districts or brought from abroad. About ninety per cent of the goat herds included in the study were registered farms, but more than half of the sheep herds were not registered. Interestingly, an indigenous community mainly residing at the terai belt of south western Nepal maintained most sheep flocks, which was the primary means of their livelihoods.
Seroprevalence of brucellosis in goat and sheep population
Antibodies to Brucella were detected only in female goats, but in the sheep populations, a higher proportion of males, 18.75% (3/16), were seropositive to Brucella than females, 14.1% (9/64). Only the local goat breeds, such as Khari, were seropositive to Brucella by ELISA. Lampuchhre is an indigenous sheep breed that had the highest burden of disease. The detailed illustrations of the sex-wise and breed-wise comparison of seroprevalence of Brucella among goats and sheep by both RBT and ELISA are described in Table 2.
There was a significant association (χ2 = 28.29, p<0.001) between seropositivity of RBT and ELISA tests for brucellosis in sheep and goats [46] and an extremely high level of agreement between the tests (κ = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.85-1, p<0.001) [35].
Table 2:Comparison of seroprevalence of Brucella among goats and sheep by sex and breed-wise classification.
Variables
|
Category
|
Total number (%)
|
RBT positive (%)
|
ELISA positive (%)
|
Overall Prevalence (95%CI)
|
Species
|
Sex
|
|
|
|
|
Goat
|
Male
|
65 (23.46)
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1.1% (0.37-3.14)
|
|
Female
|
212 (76.53)
|
2.36 % (5/212)
|
1.42 % (3/212)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sheep
|
Male
|
16 (20)
|
18.75 % (3/16)
|
18.75 % (3/16)
|
15% (8.79-24.41)
|
|
Female
|
64 (80)
|
12.5% (8/64)
|
14.1% (9/64)
|
|
Breeds
|
|
|
|
|
Goat*
|
Local
|
135 (48.74)
|
2.22 % (3/135)
|
2.22 % (3/135)
|
1.1% (0.37-3.14)
|
|
Exotic
|
142 (51.26)
|
1.41 % (2/142)
|
0.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sheep
|
Lampuchhre
|
75 (93.75)
|
14.67% (11/75)
|
16% (12/75)
|
15% (8.79-24.41)
|
|
Baruwal
|
5 (6.25)
|
0.0
|
0.00
|
* Exotic breeds of goat included Boer and Jamunapari. Local breeds of goat included Khari and Terai.
Univariable regression analysis
The bivariate analysis of the sheep and goat data was depicted in Tables 3 and 4, respectively. Sheep greater than 1.5 years of age had significantly higher odds of brucellosis (OR= 4.29, 95%CI: 1.16, 20.63, p= 0.0406) than the sheep of age ≤ 1.5 years. There were significantly higher odds of brucellosis among sheep when flock size was >100 (OR= 4.2, 95% CI: 1.19,15.91, p = 0.026) than the sheep herds of ≤100. Sheep that had parity greater than one were 4.11 more likely to be detected with brucellosis compared to sheep ≤ 1, but the result was statistically borderline significant (OR= 4.11, 95%CI: 0.98, 21.29, p = 0.055) (Table 3).
In bivariate analysis, the only variable associated with seropositivity was that the goats taken for grazing had significantly higher odds (OR=14.5, 95% CI: 1.1, 283.9, p = 0.003) of Brucella seropositivity compared to goats stall-fed at farms (Table 4).
Multivariable logistic regression analysis
The variables that qualified from the sheep data for multivariable analysis (p<0.20) were age, gender, grazing system and disinfection process applied at the farm entry point. Similarly, for the goat data, the same sets of the variables were qualified for final firth multivariable logistic regression analysis based on the cut-off criteria of p < 0.20.
In the multivariable regression analysis, sheep of older age (>1.5 years) had significantly higher odds (OR= 5.56, 95% CI: 11.39, 29.38, p = 0.02) of Brucella seropositivity compared to the younger sheep (≤1.5 years) (Table 5). The sheep farms of flock size greater than 100, had higher odds (OR = 4.74, 95% CI: 1.23, 20.32, p = 0.03) of Brucella seropositivity than those of smaller farm size.
In the goat population, none of the variables was identified as statistically significant (p<0.05) risk factors for brucellosis after running multivariable firth logistic regression (Table 6). Goats from the frequent grazing herds had higher odds (OR = 13.82, 95% CI: 0.70, 272.20) of Brucella seropositivity than the goats from isolated herds (Table 6), but this was borderline statistically significant (p = 0.08).
Table 3: Univariable analysis results of potential risk factors associated with sero-positivity of sheep population against Brucella spp.
Determinants
|
Total no. of sheep
|
Brucella positive
|
Brucella negative
|
Odds ratio (OR)
|
95% CI
|
P value
|
Animal Origin
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Purchased
|
12
|
3
|
9
|
2.19
|
(0.85, 2.21)
|
0.32
|
Homebred
|
68
|
9
|
59
|
Ref
|
|
|
Age (median=1.5 years)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
>1.5
|
37
|
9
|
28
|
4.29
|
(1.16, 20.63)
|
0.041*
|
£1.5
|
43
|
3
|
40
|
Ref
|
|
|
Herd size (median= 100)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
>100
|
24
|
7
|
17
|
4.2
|
(1.19,15.91)
|
0.026*
|
£100
|
56
|
5
|
51
|
Ref
|
|
|
Parity (median=1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
>1
|
24
|
6
|
18
|
4.11
|
(0.98,21.29)
|
0.055
|
£1
|
40
|
3
|
37
|
Ref
|
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male
|
16
|
3
|
13
|
1.41
|
(0.28,5.53)
|
0.646
|
Female
|
64
|
9
|
55
|
Ref
|
|
|
Grazing
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
74
|
12
|
62
|
2.6
|
(0.12, 49.16)
|
0.154
|
No
|
6
|
0
|
6
|
Ref
|
|
|
Repeat breeding
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
11
|
3
|
8
|
2.94
|
(0.62,2.63)
|
0.199
|
No
|
53
|
6
|
47
|
Ref
|
|
|
*P value<0.05 means statistically significant
Table 4: Univariable analysis results of potential risk factors associated with sero-positivity of goat population against Brucella spp.
Determinants
|
Total no of goats
|
Brucella Positive
|
Brucella Negative
|
Odds Ratios (OR)
|
95% CI
|
P value
|
Animal Origin
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Purchased
|
105
|
2
|
103
|
1.2
|
0.11, 26.11
|
0.87
|
Homebred
|
172
|
1
|
171
|
Ref
|
|
|
Age (median= 2 years)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
£2
|
194
|
3
|
191
|
3.1
|
0.16, 59.74
|
0.12
|
>2
|
83
|
0
|
83
|
Ref
|
|
|
Herd size (median= 48)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
£48
|
140
|
3
|
137
|
7
|
0.36, 136.8
|
0.06
|
>48
|
137
|
0
|
137
|
Ref
|
|
|
Parity (median=1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
£1
|
113
|
3
|
110
|
6.5
|
0.33, 127.2
|
0.04*
|
>1
|
102
|
0
|
102
|
Ref
|
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Female
|
211
|
3
|
209
|
2.19
|
0.112, 42.9
|
0.34
|
Male
|
65
|
0
|
65
|
ref
|
|
|
Grazing
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
92
|
3
|
89
|
14.5
|
1.1, 283.9
|
0.01*
|
No
|
185
|
0
|
185
|
Ref
|
|
|
Repeat breeding
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
42
|
1
|
41
|
2.1
|
0.18, 23.28
|
0.29
|
No
|
171
|
2
|
169
|
Ref
|
|
|
*P value<0.05 means statistically significant
Table 5: Multivariable analysis results of risk factors (p<0.05) associated with sero-positivity of sheep population against Brucella spp.
Determinants
|
Category
|
Coefficient
|
Standard Error
|
Odds ratio (OR
|
95% CI
|
P value
|
Age (median= 1.5 years)
|
>1.5
|
1.72
|
0.76
|
5.56
|
(1.39, 29.38)
|
0.02*
|
|
£1.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
Herd size (median= 100)
|
>100
|
1.56
|
0.70
|
4.74
|
(1.23, 20.32)
|
0.03*
|
|
£100
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*P value < 0.05 means statistically significant
Table 6: Multivariable analysis results of risk factors (p<0.05) associated with sero-positivity of goat population against Brucella spp.
Determinants
|
Category
|
Coefficient
|
Standard Error
|
Odds ratio (OR)
|
95% CI
|
P value
|
Age
(median=2 years)
|
>2
|
0.98
|
1.54
|
2.24
|
(0.12, 45.89)
|
0.60
|
|
£2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Herd size
(median= 48)
|
>48
|
1.86
|
1.53
|
6.44
|
(0.32, 128.16)
|
0.22
|
|
£48
|
|
|
|
|
|
Grazing
|
Yes
|
2.63
|
1.52
|
13.82
|
(0.70, 272.20)
|
0.08 a
|
|
No
|
|
|
|
|
|
a: This variable has borderline significant p-value and could be a potential risk factor