Table 1 Descriptive statistics of variables
Variable
|
Definition
|
Number of samples
|
Mean
|
Standard deviation
|
Minimum
|
Maximum
|
Number of infected people
|
Abbreviation: NCOV, unit: people
|
31
|
2619.581
|
12164.41
|
1
|
68127
|
Number of people who migrated from Hubei to another province
|
Abbreviation: PHM, unit: 10,000 people
|
30
|
31.87
|
74.059
|
0.85
|
397.34
|
Number of people who migrated from another province to Hubei
|
Abbreviation: PMH, unit: 10,000 people
|
30
|
9.891
|
9.973
|
0.6
|
44.89
|
Number of permanent residents in each province
|
Abbreviation: P, unit: 10,000 people
|
31
|
4478.516
|
2866.818
|
337
|
11169
|
Population density
|
Abbreviation: PD, number of people per km2 unit: people
|
31
|
459.339
|
705.206
|
2.743
|
3813.88
|
Traffic density
|
Abbreviation: TD, mileage per km2 unit: km
|
31
|
1.016
|
0.598
|
0.073
|
2.512
|
Whether it neighbors Hubei
|
Abbreviation: neighbor; yes=1, no=0
|
30
|
0.233
|
0.43
|
0
|
1
|
Whether it is in southern China
|
Abbreviation: region; yes=1, no=0
|
30
|
0.467
|
0.507
|
0
|
1
|
Number of high-speed trains between the provincial capital and Wuhan
|
Abbreviation: QHrail, unit: trains
|
30
|
21.1
|
26.61
|
0
|
99
|
Distance from Hubei
|
Abbreviation: distance, unit: km
|
30
|
1230.333
|
721.342
|
327.1
|
3263.8
|
Whether the disposable income per capita is higher than that in Hubei
|
Abbreviation: comparison; yes=1, no=0
|
31
|
0.387
|
0.495
|
0
|
1
|
Table 2 Hubei-related population migration and numbers of infected people
Rank
|
Province
|
PHM
Unit: 10,000 people
|
Province
|
PMH
Unit: 10,000 people
|
Province
|
P-value
Unit: 10,000 people
|
Province
|
NCOV
Unit: people
|
1
|
Hubei
|
-
|
Hubei
|
-
|
Guangdong
|
11169
|
Hubei
|
68127
|
2
|
Guangdong
|
397.34
|
Henan
|
44.89
|
Shandong
|
10006
|
Guangdong
|
1395
|
3
|
Zhejiang
|
124.51
|
Hunan
|
28.8
|
Henan
|
9559
|
Henan
|
1273
|
4
|
Shanghai
|
73.55
|
Guangdong
|
20.79
|
Sichuan
|
8302
|
Zhejiang
|
1218
|
5
|
Jiangsu
|
60.77
|
Chongqing
|
20.65
|
Jiangsu
|
8029
|
Hunan
|
1018
|
6
|
Beijing
|
49.39
|
Anhui
|
20.6
|
Hebei
|
7520
|
Anhui
|
990
|
7
|
Fujian
|
43.96
|
Jiangxi
|
17.32
|
Hunan
|
6860
|
Jiangxi
|
935
|
8
|
Hunan
|
25.08
|
Sichuan
|
15.97
|
Anhui
|
6255
|
Shandong
|
763
|
9
|
Tianjin
|
23.51
|
Zhejiang
|
15.59
|
Hubei
|
5902
|
Jiangsu
|
631
|
10
|
Sichuan
|
15.04
|
Shandong
|
13.34
|
Zhejiang
|
5657
|
Chongqing
|
576
|
11
|
Jiangxi
|
12.49
|
Fujian
|
13.06
|
Guangxi
|
4885
|
Heilongjiang
|
558
|
12
|
Yunnan
|
12.25
|
Jiangsu
|
12.33
|
Yunnan
|
4801
|
Sichuan
|
540
|
13
|
Henan
|
10.93
|
Hebei
|
8.63
|
Jiangxi
|
4622
|
Beijing
|
419
|
14
|
Anhui
|
10.62
|
Guizhou
|
8.38
|
Liaoning
|
4369
|
Shanghai
|
339
|
15
|
Shaanxi
|
10.33
|
Shaanxi
|
7.26
|
Fujian
|
3911
|
Hebei
|
318
|
16
|
Shandong
|
9.76
|
Guangxi
|
6.67
|
Shaanxi
|
3835
|
Fujian
|
296
|
17
|
Hebei
|
9.4
|
Yunnan
|
5.21
|
Heilongjiang
|
3789
|
Guangxi
|
252
|
18
|
Shanxi
|
8.86
|
Shanxi
|
4.85
|
Shanxi
|
3702
|
Shaanxi
|
245
|
19
|
Guizhou
|
8.05
|
Gansu
|
4.85
|
Guizhou
|
3580
|
Yunnan
|
174
|
20
|
Guangxi
|
7.97
|
Xinjiang
|
4.38
|
Chongqing
|
3075
|
Hainan
|
168
|
21
|
Xinjiang
|
7.73
|
Shanghai
|
3.37
|
Jilin
|
2717
|
Guizhou
|
146
|
22
|
Chongqing
|
7.6
|
Heilongjiang
|
3.19
|
Gansu
|
2626
|
Tianjin
|
136
|
23
|
Hainan
|
7.15
|
Hainan
|
2.91
|
Inner Mongolia
|
2529
|
Shanxi
|
133
|
24
|
Gansu
|
4.24
|
Inner Mongolia
|
2.74
|
Xinjiang
|
2445
|
Liaoning
|
125
|
25
|
Qinghai
|
3.23
|
Beijing
|
2.67
|
Shanghai
|
2418
|
Jilin
|
93
|
26
|
Liaoning
|
2.85
|
Liaoning
|
2.11
|
Beijing
|
2171
|
Gansu
|
92
|
27
|
Heilongjiang
|
2.74
|
Jilin
|
1.92
|
Tianjin
|
1557
|
Inner Mongolia
|
77
|
28
|
Inner Mongolia
|
2.73
|
Tianjin
|
1.65
|
Hainan
|
926
|
Xinjiang
|
76
|
29
|
Jilin
|
2.18
|
Qinghai
|
1.23
|
Ningxia
|
682
|
Ningxia
|
75
|
30
|
Ningxia
|
0.99
|
Tibet
|
0.76
|
Qinghai
|
598
|
Qinghai
|
18
|
31
|
Tibet
|
0.85
|
Ningxia
|
0.6
|
Tibet
|
337
|
Tibet
|
1
|
Abbreviations: NCOV, number of infected people; PHM, number of people who migrated from Hubei to another province; PMH, number of people who migrated from another province to Hubei.
Table 3 Population migration-related factors for the number of infected people
Variable
|
Model 1
|
Model 2
|
Model 3
|
Model 4
|
P-value
|
0.498
(0.444)
|
|
|
|
PHM
|
|
1.953***
(0.452)
|
|
|
PMH
|
|
30.89***
(3.438)
|
|
|
PPHM
|
|
|
0.000115**
(0.0000455)
|
0.000120***
(0.0000367)
|
PPMH
|
|
|
0.00324***
(0.000649)
|
0.00253***
(0.000581)
|
PD
|
|
|
|
-0.104*
(0.0516)
|
TD
|
|
|
|
265.4***
(82.39)
|
_cons
|
389.9
(855.5)
|
60.64*
(34.48)
|
194.9***
(43.71)
|
21.45
(46.34)
|
N
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
R2
|
0.014
|
0.831
|
0.721
|
0.780
|
Notes: *, **, and *** represent significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively; bracketed values denote the standard errors. Abbreviations: P, number of permanent residents in each province; PD, population density; PHM, number of people who migrated from Hubei to another province; PMH, number of people who migrated from another province to Hubei; TD, traffic density.
Table 4 Factors affecting population migration.
Variable
|
Model 4
|
Model 5
|
PHM
|
PMH
|
P-value
|
0.00790
(0.00733)
|
0.00136***
(0.000303)
|
Neighbor
|
-44.45
(33.92)
|
7.758**
(2.774)
|
Region
|
36.63
(22.15)
|
1.186
(2.665)
|
QHrail
|
1.035
(0.830)
|
0.123*
(0.0629)
|
Distance
|
0.0331
(0.0280)
|
-0.00114
(0.00140)
|
comparison1
|
50.28**
(23.64)
|
-0.492
(1.740)
|
_cons
|
-90.84
(74.66)
|
0.475
(2.733)
|
N
|
30
|
30
|
R2
|
0.472
|
0.821
|
Notes: *, **, and *** represent significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively; bracketed values denote the standard errors. Abbreviations: PHM, number of people who migrated from Hubei to another province; PMH, number of people who migrated from another province to Hubei, QHrail, number of high-speed trains between the provincial capital and Wuhan.