This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research article
Lei Cao
Xi'an Jiaotong University
Corresponding Author
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
As a result of the global epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many European countries and regions have been strongly affected. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the most important index to evaluate the hazards associated with an epidemic situation. We aimed to present a method to calculate the instant CFR and to evaluate and compare the instant CFR of COVID-19 in the four European countries that have been most impacted: Italy, Spain, France and Germany. The daily COVID-19 case data from January 30, 2020, to July 9, 2020 in Italy, Spain, France and Germany were collected from WHO reports. Death time was calculated as the difference between the peak dates of the number of daily confirmed cases and the number of deaths in each of the four countries. The estimated dates of diagnosis of the declared deaths were a death time prior to the dates of death. The instant fatality rate of COVID-19 was calculated as the ratio of the number of cumulative deaths to the number of cumulative confirmed cases; these deaths and confirmed cases occurred on the same estimated dates of diagnosis. As of July 9, 2020, the COVID-19 death time was 6, 4, 6 and 12 days in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, respectively. The instant CFR of COVID-19 was 14.4%~27.6%, 2.2%~14.7%, 8.2%~25.0% and 2.0%~10.5% in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, respectively. The average CFR of COVID-19 was highest in France (16.7%) and lowest in Germany (5.0%). Since late April 2020, the CFR has stabilized at approximately 15%, 20% and 5% in Italy, France and Germany, respectively. Since early June, 2020, the CFR in Spain has stabilized at approximately 11%. We have established a more accurate way to calculate the CFR that may provide a basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.
Keywords
COVID-19, case fatality rates, Italy, Spain, France, Germany
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research article
Lei Cao
Xi'an Jiaotong University
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 17 Jul, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
As a result of the global epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many European countries and regions have been strongly affected. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the most important index to evaluate the hazards associated with an epidemic situation. We aimed to present a method to calculate the instant CFR and to evaluate and compare the instant CFR of COVID-19 in the four European countries that have been most impacted: Italy, Spain, France and Germany. The daily COVID-19 case data from January 30, 2020, to July 9, 2020 in Italy, Spain, France and Germany were collected from WHO reports. Death time was calculated as the difference between the peak dates of the number of daily confirmed cases and the number of deaths in each of the four countries. The estimated dates of diagnosis of the declared deaths were a death time prior to the dates of death. The instant fatality rate of COVID-19 was calculated as the ratio of the number of cumulative deaths to the number of cumulative confirmed cases; these deaths and confirmed cases occurred on the same estimated dates of diagnosis. As of July 9, 2020, the COVID-19 death time was 6, 4, 6 and 12 days in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, respectively. The instant CFR of COVID-19 was 14.4%~27.6%, 2.2%~14.7%, 8.2%~25.0% and 2.0%~10.5% in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, respectively. The average CFR of COVID-19 was highest in France (16.7%) and lowest in Germany (5.0%). Since late April 2020, the CFR has stabilized at approximately 15%, 20% and 5% in Italy, France and Germany, respectively. Since early June, 2020, the CFR in Spain has stabilized at approximately 11%. We have established a more accurate way to calculate the CFR that may provide a basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.
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