Measurement of Ki67 protein levels with QDB method
A QDB-based high throughput immunoassay for absolute quantitation of Ki67 levels in FFPE specimens was developed first by defining the linear range of total tissue lysates and recombinant Ki67 protein standards using a clinically validated antibody, MIB1. The total tissue lysates from 4 FFPE specimens with Ki67 score>70% were pooled together, and diluted serially to define the linear range of the assay (Figure S2).
The Ki67 levels in all 253 FFPE specimens were measured using QDB method, and Ki67 levels were found to distribute between 0 (undetectable level) to 22.21 nmol/g, with average at 3.32±0.22 nmol/g (Figure 1a). Based on a recent study [14], the Ductal Carcinoma in situ (DCIS), normal and stroma tissue were not excluded from the tissue slices, as long as more than 50% of invasive tumor was presented in the slice. In this study, the potential influence of Tumor infiltrating Lymphocytes (TIL) was also not considered.
Among 253 specimens, 244 were provide with Ki67 scores from three pathologists assessing the same set of IHC stained slides independently. Their Ki67 score averages were used throughput the study. We found the highest IHC score was at 75%, and the lowest at 1%, with average at 14.18±0.79% (Figure 1b). Correlation analysis was performed using results from QDB and IHC methods with r=0.71, p<0.0001 using Pearson’s correlation analysis (Figure 1c). In an attempt to reduce the potential interference from the subjectivity inherently associated with IHC analysis, we also sub-grouped these specimens by their IHC scores. As expected, the correlation between the subgroup averages of the absolute Ki67 levels from QDB method with IHC scores was increased to r=0.93, p<0.0001 using Pearson’s correlation analysis (Figure 1d).
Those specimens provided with Ki67 scores were also accompanied with IHC results for ER, PR, and Her2. For specimens with Her2 score of 2+, results from FISH analysis were used to differentiate Her2+ from Her2- specimen. Based on these information, we assigned these 244 specimens into luminal-like subtype (n=155), HER2-like subtype (n=31), and Triple Negative subtype (n=53) based on 2013 St. Gallen consensus[3]. The remaining 5 specimens cannot be subtyped based on this consensus (Figure 2).
The clinicopathological parameters of the 155 luminal-like specimens were listed in table 1. For all the qualified patients, the median overall survival (OS) time to censoring was 85 months, with the maximum at 132 months. These specimens might be further divided into 66 Luminal A-like and 89 B-like subtypes using Ki67 score at 14% as cutoff, or 76 Luminal A-like and 79 Luminal B-like subtypes with Ki67 score at 20% as cutoff.
QDB-based adjusted surrogate assay vs IHC-based surrogate assay
To evaluate the influence of objectively quantitated Ki67 levels on the prognostic effect of surrogate assay, we subtyped luminal A-like from luminal B-like subtypes based on absolutely quantitated Ki67 levels, using an optimized cutoff at 2.31 nmol/g. We named this method the adjusted surrogate assay for simplicity (table 2). The 2.31 nmol/g cutoff used in adjusted surrogate assay was obtained using the “surv_cutpoint” function of the “suvminer” R package in combination with the OS of these patients. This proposed cutoff was validated using an independent cohort in the accompany manuscript III [15]. In addition, we also managed to split the current cohort randomly into a training set and a validate set using RAND("table") function with SAS 9.4 to demonstrate its effectiveness for subtyping of Luminal-like patients (Figure S4).
Table 2
Subtyping of Luminal-like specimens.
Subtype
|
Surrogate Assay
|
Adjusted Surrogate Assay
|
LuminalA (LumA)
|
ER+, Her2-, Ki67<14% & PR≥20%
|
ER+, Her2-, Ki67<2.31nmol/g & PR≥20%
|
LuminalB (LumB)
|
|
|
LuminalB1 (LumB1)
|
ER+, Her2-, Ki67≥14% or PR<20%
|
ER+, Her2-, Ki67≥2.31nmol/g or PR<20%
|
LuminalB2 (LumB2)
|
ER+, Her2+
|
ER+, Her2+
|
We also managed to obtain the optimum cutoff for Ki67 score from IHC analysis at 2.67% using the same function. However, at this value, only a small fraction of specimens were assigned to Luminal A-like subtype (n=26). Therefore, we considered 14% a more reasonable cutoff, and used this value throughout the study.
As shown in Figure 3, based on adjusted surrogate assay, the luminal A-like subtype (LumAq) has 10 year survival probability (10y SP) at 91% vs 63% for Luminal B-like subtype (LumBq), with p=0.00052 from Log rank test. In contrast, 10y SP for luminal A-like subtype (LumAi) was 88% vs 68% for Luminal B-like subtype (LumBi), with p=0.031 from surrogate assay. When Ki67 score of 20% was used as cutoff, 10y SP for LumAi was 84% vs 70% for LumBi, with p=0.10 (Figure S5).
The surrogate assay was compared next with adjusted surrogate assay in univariate cox regression analysis, and we found that adjusted surrogate assay provided improved prognosis for Luminal-like breast cancers with HR at 4.39 (95%CI, 1.78-10.81, p=0.0013) than that of surrogate assay with HR at 2.46 (95%CI, 1.05-5.75, p=0.0385) (Supplementary Table 1).
The prognostic values of both methods were also investigated in the multivariate cox regression analysis to include routine clinicopathological parameters including age, treatment type, node status, tumor size, tumor grade in the analysis. We found while LumBi patients had 2.14 fold higher risk of death than LumAi from surrogate assay (HR: 2.14, 95%CI, 0.89-5.11, p=0.0873), it is not statistically significant. On the other hand, LumBq specimens had 6.89 fold higher risk of death than LumAq by adjusted surrogate assay (HR: 6.89, 95%CI, 2.66-17.84, p=0.0001) (Supplementary Table 2). In addition, in both analyses, age and node status were found to be an independent prognostic factor.
Next, we tried to understand what caused this difference by comparing the luminal A-like and Luminal B-like subtypes from surrogate assay (LumAi and LumBi) with those from adjusted surrogate assay (LumAq and LumBq) in Supplementary Table 3. The specimens were named as AiAq or BiBq if they were assigned to Luminal A-like or Luminal B-like subtypes by both methods. Those assigned by surrogate assay to A-like subtype, but not by adjusted surrogate assay, was named as AiBq, and those assigned by adjusted surrogate assay to Luminal-A like subtype, but not by surrogate assay, were named BiAq. We found more specimens were assigned to Luminal A-like subtype by adjusted surrogate assay than surrogate assay (76 vs 66). The overall concordance rate between surrogate assay and adjusted surrogate assay was 75.5%.
In Figure 4, we performed the survival analyses of these four subgroups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. AiAq subgroup were found to have the best 10y SP at 91% vs BiBq subgroup at 59%. In addition, the 10y SP of BiAq, the subgroup assigned to Luminal A-like subtype only by adjusted surrogate assay, was very close to that of AiAq, at 90%.
Adjusted surrogate assay vs surrogate assay by various factors
We also attempted to minimize the influence of treatment on the survival probability of each subtype (Figure S6). For this purpose, only patients receiving chemotherapy were analyzed (n=85), as there were insufficient number of specimens receiving other treatments. Consistent with the overall performance, adjusted surrogate assay presented significantly better prognosis than surrogate assay, with 10y SP at 100% for LumAq vs 53% for LumBq, p<0.0001, in comparison to 94% for LumAi vs 69% for LumBi, p=0.037 (Figure S6a and S6b).
The potential influence of node status was also investigated in this study by dividing patients into N0 group (no positive lymph node detected, n=65) and N1 (patients with 1 to 3 positive lymph nodes, n=56), and analyzed their 10y SP using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Again, adjusted surrogate assay showed better prognosis than surrogate assay in both cases. For N0 patients, 10y SP was at 97% for LumAq vs 72% for LumBq, p=0.023, in contrast to 93% for LumAi vs 80% for LumBi, p=0.31. Likewise, this number became 90% vs 63% for LumAq vs LumBq, p=0.026, in contrast to 90% vs 66% for LumAi vs LumBi, p=0.10 for N1 patients. The specimen numbers for N2 and N3 statuses were insufficient for further survival analysis (Figure S7).