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Research Article
Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi
University of Birjand
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6871-2771
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Simulation of flow discharge based on monthly precipitation values as inputs is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources studies, especially in areas where data with the shorter time scales are not available. In this study, the applicability of support vector regression (SVR) model optimized by Ant colony and Copula-GARCH algorithms was investigated and compared to simulate the flow discharge based on total monthly rainfall in Talezang Basin, Iran. Entropy theory was used to select a suitable meteorological station corresponding to a hydrometric station. The vector autoregressive model was also used as the base model in Copula-GARCH simulations. The correlation results of the studied paired variable confirmed the possibility of using copula-based models. The simulation results were evaluated using R2, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) statistics. According to the 99% confidence intervals of the simulations, the accuracy of both models was confirmed. The simulation results showed that the Copula-GARCH model was more accurate than the optimized SVR (OSVR) model. Considering the 90% efficiency (NSE = 0.90) of Copula-GARCH approach, the results show a 36% improvement of RMSE statistics by Copula-GARCH model compared to OSVR model in simulating the flow discharge on a monthly scale. The results also showed that by combining nonlinear ARCH models with the copula-based simulations, the reliability of the simulation results increases, which was also confirmed using the violin plot. The results also showed an increase in the accuracy of the Copula-GARCH model at the minimum and maximum values of the data.
Keywords
ARCH Models, ARMA, Conditional heteroscedasticity, Copula-GARCH, Rainfall- Runoff Modeling
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CURRENT STATUS: Under Revision
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Posted 03 Jun, 2021
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Editorial decision: Major revisions
On 02 Mar, 2022
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Received 01 Jun, 2021
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Subject Areas
Civil Engineering
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This preprint is under consideration at Water Resources Management. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi
University of Birjand
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6871-2771
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Revision
Version 1
Posted 03 Jun, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Major revisions
On 02 Mar, 2022
Reviews received
Received 01 Jun, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 31 May, 2021
First submitted
On 18 Apr, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Civil Engineering
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Simulation of flow discharge based on monthly precipitation values as inputs is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources studies, especially in areas where data with the shorter time scales are not available. In this study, the applicability of support vector regression (SVR) model optimized by Ant colony and Copula-GARCH algorithms was investigated and compared to simulate the flow discharge based on total monthly rainfall in Talezang Basin, Iran. Entropy theory was used to select a suitable meteorological station corresponding to a hydrometric station. The vector autoregressive model was also used as the base model in Copula-GARCH simulations. The correlation results of the studied paired variable confirmed the possibility of using copula-based models. The simulation results were evaluated using R2, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) statistics. According to the 99% confidence intervals of the simulations, the accuracy of both models was confirmed. The simulation results showed that the Copula-GARCH model was more accurate than the optimized SVR (OSVR) model. Considering the 90% efficiency (NSE = 0.90) of Copula-GARCH approach, the results show a 36% improvement of RMSE statistics by Copula-GARCH model compared to OSVR model in simulating the flow discharge on a monthly scale. The results also showed that by combining nonlinear ARCH models with the copula-based simulations, the reliability of the simulation results increases, which was also confirmed using the violin plot. The results also showed an increase in the accuracy of the Copula-GARCH model at the minimum and maximum values of the data.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
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