3.1. Spatial-temporal LULC changes
The data obtained through the analysis of multi-temporal satellite imageries from 1984 to 2016 are illustrated in figure and Table. The land cover maps (Fig. 2) demonstrate some important spatial-temporal patterns. The artificial area experienced an increasing trend from 1984 to 2016, with a decreasing in agricultural land, forests, wetlands, and beaches/dunes. The table 1 shows that the artificial area increased from 513.3 ha in 1984 and 1284 ha in 2006, to 1762.1 ha in 2016, with a rate change of 60% during 1984–2006 and 27.1% during 2006–2016. On other hand, the forest land decreased from 2046.7 ha in 1984 to 1419.3 ha in 2016. They are lost 336.2 ha during 1984–2006 and − 291.2 ha during 2006–2016, representing a rate of change of -19.7% and − 20.5%. The wetland had a lost 396.2 ha during 1984–2006 and 80.5 ha during 2006–2016. The beaches /dunes had a lost − 174.4 ha of its area during 1984–2006 and − 68.7 ha during 2006–2016. The Scrub/ herb vegetation and the agricultural land remained relatively stable in first period (1984–2006). During 2006–2016, The Scrub/ herb vegetation increased from 1291.6 ha to of 1727.3 ha. The agricultural land had lost 450.8 ha of its area, with a rate of variation of -8.9%. Furthermore, the beaches and dunes land recorded a decreasing area during the period 1984–2016 with a rate change between − 4.5 and − 20.7%. This regression can be explained by the sediment imbalance resulting from extraction of sand for construction needs and retention of sediment by “Ibn Battuta” and “April 9, 1947” Dam at upstream site.
A detailed analysis of the intra and inter-transition of land cover classes (Table 2) reveals that 77.4% of the study area remained stable with 22.6% of change between 1984 and 2016. The most interesting change was manifested by artificial expansion at the expense of disappearance of other land-use types. For example, 1.4% of forests land was converted to artificial land and 3.1% transformed mainly into Scrub/ herb vegetation. Moreover, 5.3% agricultural land was converted also to artificial land. Another class of land cover that has undergone significant transformations was wetlands. Assessed at 28.6% in 1984, only 23.7% remained intact and 2.1% is converted into agricultural land, 1.2% into artificial land. This unconventional land cover transition is mainly linked to the construction of the thermal power station and the radio station in 1949; the TGV construction and the Rabat-Tangier highway in 2005, induced predominantly by Tangier’s urban development (Barjy et al. 2018).
3.2. Radionuclide profiles and sediment chronology
The plot of 210Pbxs and 137Cs activities against depth for the Tahaddart sediment core is displayed in Fig. 3. The surface 210Pbxs activities was around to 34.1 Bq / kg (Fig. 5A), relatively lower compared to activities found in other coastal ecosystems (Bellucci et al. 2007; Alonso-hernandez and Ruiz-fernández 2011). A detailed analysis of the 210Pbxs distribution with depth suggests that the recording can be divided into two distinct segments. At the top of sediment core (0 to 20 cm), the 210Pbxs activities decreased exponentially with depth, indicating regular sedimentation. However, the 210Pbxs activities were relatively constant throughout the 20–50 cm segment of the core. A flattening of 210Pbxs indicates either a dilution of the atmospheric flux of 210Pbxs by mixing of sediments, acceleration of sedimentation and / or the occurrence of slumps due to, for example, heavy rains (Alonso-hernandez et al, 2011).
The 137Cs activities range from 0.3 to 1.3 Bq / kg which are below the detection limit (2Bq / kg), which means that dating using this radionuclide is difficult (Fig. 3). This has also been observed in other coastal ecosystems such as: Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico (Ruiz-fernández, 2016) and Havana Bay in Cuba (Alonso-hernandez et al, 2011). The application of CFCS model (constant flux, constant supply), gave a sedimentation rate of 0.53 cm / year, which is comparable to that found by Khalfaoui et al. (2020) for the Tahaddart estuary. The slight difference between the two sedimentation rates is a maybe a result of the limited number of samples analyzed or located in the area (Khalfaoui et al. 2020). On the other hand, the sedimentation rate is higher than that recorded at Loukous estuary (Morocco) and Venice lagoon, but lower than the maximum rate recorded at Oum Errabia estuary and the Moulay Bousselham lagoon, Morocco (Kalloul et al, 2012; Maanan M. et al 2009; Mhammdi et al, 2010 Bellucci et al. 2007)(Table 3).
3.3. Sediment quality
The concentration of the studied metals in the dated sediment cores derived from Tahaddart estuary exhibited increasing trends, with the highest concentrations observed at the upper parts of sediment cores as obtained from our previous study (Barjy et al. 2018). To investigate the historical metals contamination, a comparative study was performed using the sediment quality guidelines (Fig. 4). The results showed that all concentrations in trace elements are below the values of ERM; thus, the concentrations of all trace elements in sediment cores do not represent any ecological risk. As indicated in figure, Zn and Cu levels in both cores were lower than TEL. Ni level in sediment exceeded the TEL values indicated in the SQG but still below the PEL values, while Pb, Cd and Cr concentrations were higher than the TEL values at upper parts of the cores.
Based on the previous results, contamination factor (CF) and pollution load index (PLI) have been calculated for each core, the results are given in Fig. 5 below. The CF varied within a range of 0.53–2.13 for Zn; 0.75–2.01 for Pb; 0.64–2.60 for Cu; 0.57–1.69 for Ni; 0.66–2.22 for As; 0.23–19.11 for Cd and 0.65–3.33 for Cr in TC1’s core ; and 0.79 and 2.11 for Ni; 0.39 and 2.10 for Cu; 0.97 and 2.10 for Zn; 0.61 and 2.95 for Cr; 0.77 and 2.13 for Pb; 0.21 and 16.09 for Cd; 0.95 and 2.63 for As in TC2’s core (Table 4). The minimum values are generally found at the base of the cores, while the maximum values are observed at the upper part. For Cd, the vertical distribution of CF reveals a strong contamination (FC ≥ 6). For As, Pb, Ni, Zn and Cr, the calculated FCs indicate moderate contamination at the top, while the base of the core is marked by low contamination.
According to table 4, the values of pollution load index (PLI) for the two cores (TC1 and CT2) are between 0.64 and 2.72 with an average of order 1.62 for the CT1 core and between 0.63 and 2.86 with an average of 1.67 for CT2 core. The results indicate that almost of the two cores have values higher than 1, which suggests the existence of anthropogenic pollution. The vertical distribution of PLI highlighted strong values at the top of the cores (Fig. 6).
As shown in Fig. 7, the ERM quotients (ERM-Q) of individual TEs indicated that Ni present a ‘‘High-medium Priority Site’ between 5–30 cm (CT1) et 0–5/15- 70cm (CT2). The others TEs (Cd, Cu and Pb) which classified them as "Medium-low priority side", except Zn and Cr have presented a "Low Priority Site". All the core sediment exhibited M-ERM-Q values > 0.1 confirming them as “medium-low priority sites”. The M-ERM-Q varied within a range of 0.06–0.18 for CT1, and 0.07–0.2 for CT2 which mean that the combination of six TEs (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) might have a 21% probability of toxicity posing potential risk to the aquatic organisms (Table 5).
The vertical distribution of the potential ecological risk index (Eir) for single TES at CT1 and CT2 cores indicated decreasing pollution intensity in the following order (Fig. 6): Cd > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cr > Zn, with individual mean values of 205.1; 8.3; 6.3; 5.7; 3.3 and 1.1; respectively for CT1 core and 209.8; 6.5; 5.9; 5.7; 2.4 and 1.5 for the CT2 core. It is worth noting that the Eir max values of all TEs were less than 40, and they posed a "low potential ecological risk", except for Cd where the risk was " high potential ecological risk" at the surface. The results highlighted the risk that Cd pose to the human body and the ecosystem. The Håkanson potential ecological risk index range for all sampling sites is from 24.4 and 608.1, indicating moderate to high potential ecological risk at surface (Table 5).
3.4. historical anthropogenic impacts on Tahaddart estuary
The results presented in this study provide important information about the historical contamination of the Tahaddart estuary in the last 150 years. Anthropogenic activities around the estuary have left their fingerprint on the geochemical records (Barjy et al. 2018). The results obtained so far confirm that the study area has experienced several changes patterns induced by urbanization and industrialization process during the past 32 years. Overall, land cover in the study area is primarily agricultural and has remained constant, while the estuary was a subject to rapid artificial intensification since the 1984s, which is reflected in reduction of agricultural land, forests, wetlands, and beaches/dunes. This degradation in the natural environment is resulting from many factors like the construction of the thermal power station and the radio station in 1949; the TGV construction and the Rabat-Tangier highway in 2005, induced predominantly by Tangier’s urban development (Barjy et al. 2018; Tahiri et al., 2014). Several authors (Cesar & al., 2002; Mas, 2004; Al-tahir, 2015; Gupta and Sprawl, 2019) have blamed population growth and some kind of exploitation as being responsible for land cover change. This situation of lands degradation in the Tahaddart estuary is also observed in other Moroccan ecosystems like Oualidia and Moulay Boussalham lagoons (Maanan et al, 2014).
Although the benefit of urbanization and agriculture development, some previous studies have suggested that the inappropriate land cover has been discussed as a factor that can affect environment quality of coastal ecosystem (M.C, 2019; Tang et al., 2022; ). Several authors argue that the data extracted from sediment cores provide important information of the contamination history over the past decades (Maanan et al., 2014; Irabien and al., 2008; Mahu et al., 2016; Hasan et al., 2023; Yang et al. 2020). However, in Tahaddart estuary, the highest values of contamination factor, pollution load index, ERM quotients (ERM-Q) and ecological risk index for all the metals studied were found at the upper portion of sediment cores confirming that there has been some anthropogenic influence on this estuary in recent times (since 1984), which receive a significant among of trace elements due to direct discharge from anthropogenic activities (Rabat-Tangier highway, thermal power station…) and the extensive use of fertilizers on farmlands around the estuary. The data obtained confirm gradually upward increasing trends in trace metal; spatially from 1984 when anthropogenic activities increased according to the evolution of land cover analyses. Recent case studies prove that some trace elements are mainly human-induced in coastal ecosystems (Zourarah B.. et al 2009; Zhuang et al. 2022; Sea et al. 2023). The result also revealed a gradual deterioration in the environment quality of Tahaddart estuary according to the sediment quality index, the studied zone was moderately impacted, with a 21% risk of biotoxic impacts. This sediment that may act in the future as a potential long term source of pollutants that could directly affect the water quality of estuary (Veerasingam et al. 2015). However, additional efforts should be made to avoid the spreading of contaminants in the lagoon and the preindustrial values obtained from the historical reconstruction provided could be used as the reference levels for environmental restoration purposes.