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Research Article
Vikram Mehta
CRCES: The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3841-034X
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
The Missouri River Basin (MRB) encompasses one of the most important agricultural regions in the world. Three decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient variability (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) variability – substantially influence hydro-meteorology and, consequently, spring and winter wheat yields in the MRB as indicated by data from 1961 to 2010. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate DCV impacts on wheat yields in response to realistic values of the DCV indices in approximately 13,500 hydrologic unit areas covering the MRB. SWAT, driven by scenarios of past hydro-meteorological anomalies associated with positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG, indicated major impacts on wheat yields, as much as ± 40% of the average in many locations, with smaller impacts of the WPWP variability. SWAT showed much larger wheat yield increases when the positive phase of the PDO and the negative phase of the TAG are superposed, and an equivalent decrease in yields when opposite phases of the two DCV phenomena are superposed. Thus, combined effects of DCV phenomena on wheat yields in the MRB can be dramatic with important consequences for food production and security. The usefulness of this inter-disciplinary study to farmers and other stakeholders for adapting MRB agriculture to DCV, and the applicability of the methodology to other agricultural regions are described. The results’ implications for detection and attribution of climatic change impacts are also described.
Keywords
Decadal climate variability, near-term climate change impacts, climate variability impacts, food security, crop modeling, adaptation to climate variability and change
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This preprint is under consideration at Climatic Change. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Vikram Mehta
CRCES: The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3841-034X
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 10 May, 2021
No community comments so far
Reviews received
Received 10 May, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 May, 2021
First submitted
On 21 Apr, 2021
Editor assigned
On 20 Apr, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Climatology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
The Missouri River Basin (MRB) encompasses one of the most important agricultural regions in the world. Three decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient variability (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) variability – substantially influence hydro-meteorology and, consequently, spring and winter wheat yields in the MRB as indicated by data from 1961 to 2010. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate DCV impacts on wheat yields in response to realistic values of the DCV indices in approximately 13,500 hydrologic unit areas covering the MRB. SWAT, driven by scenarios of past hydro-meteorological anomalies associated with positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG, indicated major impacts on wheat yields, as much as ± 40% of the average in many locations, with smaller impacts of the WPWP variability. SWAT showed much larger wheat yield increases when the positive phase of the PDO and the negative phase of the TAG are superposed, and an equivalent decrease in yields when opposite phases of the two DCV phenomena are superposed. Thus, combined effects of DCV phenomena on wheat yields in the MRB can be dramatic with important consequences for food production and security. The usefulness of this inter-disciplinary study to farmers and other stakeholders for adapting MRB agriculture to DCV, and the applicability of the methodology to other agricultural regions are described. The results’ implications for detection and attribution of climatic change impacts are also described.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
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