This prospective observational study identifies ultrasound-detected bone erosions as an independent prognostic factor for clinical arthritis development in ACPA-positive at-risk patients without signs of clinical arthritis at baseline. This association persisted when other known predictors were considered, suggesting that ultrasound scanning for erosions is a valuable tool to risk-stratify ACPA-positive patients with MSK pain, at least concerning the outcome of clinical arthritis. Whether or not ultrasound erosions also predict progression of structural joint damage should be addressed in future studies.
Gray-scale ultrasonography findings of SH were not significantly associated with progression to clinical arthritis in the current study, and the existing literature concerning the prognostic value of SH is divergent. Van der Stadt et al did not find a predictive value for GS at the patient level (12), while two studies have reported significant associations with arthritis development, albeit only after excluding the feet (14, 25). A recent Dutch study has shown a predictive value for SH in combination with PD, although SH was not reported separately (22). From the healthy controls included in the current study, we conclude that SH (and thereby ‘ultrasound synovitis’ according to the prevailing definition) is a common finding, also when looking outside the feet (26). Therefore, SH and ultrasound outcomes that include this feature should be interpreted with great caution.
While over-represented among the patients, the PD findings also failed to show a significant prognostic value. As for SH, the literature regarding PD includes both studies that demonstrate significant associations with arthritis development (22) and those that do not (12, 14), although all report numerically increased risk estimates. Differences in ultrasound equipment may influence PD performance across studies, and more recently introduced devices may have superior PD sensitivity than the device used in our study. Nevertheless, we conclude that PD is more specific than SH when comparing ACPA-positive MSK patients to similarly aged controls without MSK pain, but larger studies are warranted to characterize more precisely the possible prognostic value of PD signals in at-risk patients.
Data on tenosynovitis in at-risk patients are scarce. We found an increased prevalence among ACPA-positive patients, and a significant association with progression to clinical arthritis. However, the multivariable analysis did not confirm an independent prognostic value.
Ultrasound erosions were very specific findings in our study, being detected in 16% of the ACPA-positive patients with MSK but not in any of the controls. Since bone-specific effects of ACPA have been discussed extensively in recent years (27, 28), it is intriguing that the ultrasound feature with the strongest prognostic value in our ACPA-positive study population reflects bone damage rather than inflammation. Fewer than half of the joints with ultrasound-detected erosions concurrently had ultrasound-detected synovitis (and none had clinical arthritis), which is compatible with the hypothesis of structural damage preceding arthritis in at least a subset of ACPA-positive individuals (29). The one previous study on ultrasound erosions in ACPA-positive at-risk patients found a HR very similar to ours (14). Taken together, the studies strongly support the use of ultrasound scanning for erosions in ACPA-positive patients with MSK symptoms to improve prognostic capability. Given the general benefit of early initiation of anti-rheumatic therapy in patients with RA, the issue as to whether patients with ultrasound erosions would benefit from very early pharmacotherapy needs to be addressed in future studies.
A strength of the current study is the long follow-up period, which increases the chances to identify those at risk of developing arthritis after several years. In addition, the large control population places the ultrasound data in perspective, for instance by demonstrating that SH in MTP 1–4 must be interpreted with caution. Furthermore, the ultrasound results were blinded to the patients and the treating physicians, thereby removing the risk of influencing clinical judgement and treatment decisions.
A limitation of the study is that treatment was not defined in the study protocol. Importantly, however, the analyses that excluded the seven patients who were subjected to corticosteroid and/or DMARD therapy without a confirmed clinical arthritis did not alter the results in any substantial way. Another potential limitation is the fact that the ultrasound investigator was not blinded to participant status (patient vs. control). We believe, however, that the risk of over-estimating the findings in patients is limited given the increased SH scores in the control MTPs. Finally, due to practical reasons, arthritis development was not confirmed by a second investigator or compared with ultrasound findings in the same joint. However, the clinical investigators were experienced, and patients were seen by the same doctor at most of the visits.