Statistical analysis
676 non-residential premises were surveyed for the presence of larvae and adult mosquitoes. The most common establishment were the automobile workshops (N = 457) followed by tire repair shops (N = 73), auto body and paintshops (N = 99), junkyards (N = 38), and cemeteries (N = 9). Differences in the number of collected organisms per establishment were detected (GLM, χ2 = 194.14, P < 0.001)
A total of 20,595 organisms were collected. Six species were collected; we detected differences in the number of collected organisms per specie (GLM, χ2 = 871.32, P < 0.001). Aedes aegypti was an abundant specie (larvae and adults, N = 8,062), followed by Ae. albopictus (larvae and adults, N = 2,396), Cx. coronator (larvae, N = 688), Cx. interrogator (larvae, N = 24), Cx. nigripalpus (larvae, N = 28), and Cx. quinquefasciatus (larvae, N = 464). Adults of Culex spp. were also collected (N = 8,332); however, the loss or damage of pertinent taxonomic characteristics impeded the accurate identification of all the species. Therefore, we decided to conduct analyses and identify this group as “Culex spp. Adults”. Additionally, two larvae of Ae. taeniorhynchus were collected in an auto body and paint shop, four larvae of An. albimanus were collected in a cemetery, and one larva of Ur. lowii was collected in an automobile workshop. Nevertheless, these three species were not considered for further analysis.
We also detected differences in the Premises*Specie interaction (GLM, χ2 = 468.16, P < 0.001). Due to the large presence of automobile workshops and the number of organisms collected at these sites, these premises could be considered the most productive. Nonetheless, when weighing the quantity of organisms collected against the number of premises where they were collected, other premises showed a greater risk. For instance, it can be observed that junkyards, cemeteries, and tire repair shops exhibited a relative higher level of productivity for Ae. aegypti compared to automobile workshops (Table 1). Meanwhile, Ae. albopictus and Culex spp. Adults had a relative higher presence in cemeteries and automobile workshops. Larvae of Cx. coronator presence was relative higher in cemeteries. Meanwhile, for Cx. interrogator and Cx. nigripalpus automobile workshops were productive. For Cx. quinquefasciatus, auto body and paintshops showed relative higher productivity.
Table 1
Number of mosquitoes of species collected in automotive -related premises in Villahermosa, Tabasco
| | Ae. aegypti | Ae. albopictus | Culex spp. adults | Cx. coronator | Cx. interrogator | Cx. nigripalpus | Cx. quinquefasciatus |
Auto body and paintshop | # Premises | 84 | 25 | 76 | 11 | -- | 1 | 4 |
# Organisms | 1180 | 298 | 1005 | 77 | -- | 4 | 53 |
Relativization | 14.05 | 11.92 | 13.22 | 7 | -- | 4 | 13.25 |
Automobile workshop | # Premises | 349 | 102 | 381 | 59 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
# Organisms | 5062 | 1623 | 5946 | 455 | 20 | 18 | 325 |
Relativization | 14.5 | 15.91 | 15.61 | 7.71 | 6.67 | 2.25 | 8.78 |
Cemetery | # Premises | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -- | 2 | 3 |
# Organisms | 153 | 97 | 92 | 49 | -- | 3 | 15 |
Relativization | 25.5 | 24.25 | 15.33 | 16.33 | -- | 1.50 | 5 |
Junkyard | # Premises | 31 | 13 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
# Organisms | 903 | 219 | 337 | 57 | 4 | 3 | 30 |
Relativization | 29.13 | 16.85 | 11.62 | 7.13 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
Tire repair shop | # Premises | 61 | 14 | 64 | 9 | -- | -- | 7 |
# Organisms | 1358 | 159 | 952 | 50 | -- | -- | 41 |
Relativization | 22.26 | 11.36 | 14.88 | 5.56 | -- | -- | 5.86 |
Relativization= #Organisms/#Premises |
Spatial analyses
Five species showed significant calculated value for the ANN index. For Ae. aegypti, ANN was found to be 132.64 m, whereas the calculated expected mean distance was 266.06 m. and was statistically clustered with an R value of 0.49 (Z = -22.1, P < 0.001). Aedes albopictus showed an ANN of 299.25 m, the calculated expected mean distance was 474.43 m, R value of 0.63 (Z= -8.88, P < 0.001). The ANN for Cx. coronator was 400.89, with an expected mean distance of 643.38 and an R value of 0.62 (Z = -68.4, P < 0.001). The ANN index for Culex spp. Adults was 140.81, the calculated expected mean was 268.24, and an R = 0.52 (Z = -21.43, P < 0.001). Finally, Cx. quinquefasciatus showed an ANN of 535.76, expected mean distance of 663.57 with and R of 0.80 (Z = -2.75, P = 0.006).
Related, areas with various risk levels of Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Cx. coronator, Culex spp Adults and Cx. quinquefasciatus were identified with a significance greater than or equal to 90% using the Getis-Ord Gi٭ (Fig. 4). Clusters of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were identified in the northeastern region of the city. For Cx. coronator and Cx. quinquefasciatus, small and low clusters were detected at the southwest region of the city. The other species did not exhibit significant clustering.
The spatial autocorrelation analysis with Moran’s I Index showed the highly significant positive clustering of similar values in close geographical range of the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Culex spp. Adults (Table 2). For the remaining species, the spatial analysis using Moran's I found no evidence of spatial structure (P > 0.5 in all cases). For Ae. aegypti, the highest Morean I was detected after a distance of 15 m, indicating that the spatial dependence in the abundance is the most significant at the separation distance of 15 meters. For Culex spp adults, the highest Moran's I value was observed at 55 meters.
Table 2
Moran's I spatial autocorrelation index for all the mosquito species collected in automotive -related premises in Villahermosa, Tabasco
Specie | Moran's I | z-score | P |
Ae. aegypti | 0.529 | 8.1945 | 0.015 |
Ae. albopictus | 0.0682 | 0.863 | 0.38 |
Culex spp. adults | 0.385 | 4.1855 | < 0.001 |
Cx. coronator larvae | -0.0468 | -0.628 | 0.529 |
Cx. interrogator larvae | -0.9565 | -0.9572 | 0.338 |
Cx. nigripalpus larvae | -0.3854 | -1.1005 | 0.27 |
Cx. quinquefasciatus larvae | -0.0026 | 0.1749 | 0.86 |
Data from species with significant spatial autocorrelation were analyzed using kriging analysis (i.e. Ae. aegypti and Culex spp Adults). Nevertheless, due to its significance as an active arbovirus vector, the analysis was also conducted for Ae. albopictus. Table 2 provides an overview of the model’s parameters for each species semi-variogram. The Spherical, Gaussian, and Exponential models exhibited similar Kriging interpolation parameters. The Gaussian model showed the highest nugget values for the three species, suggesting that the observed spatial variability could be driven by small-scale artifacts or distant collecting points that are likely to carry significant weight.
The absence of a nugget effect for Ae. albopictus within the Spherical and Exponential models suggests that its spatial dissemination occurs at broader geographic scales (Table 2). Aedes albopictus has the highest partial sill value, indicating the greatest overall variability among the three species. In contrast, Ae. aegypti exhibits lesser levels of variability in their spatial patterns in comparison to Ae. albopictus and Culex spp Adults. Culex spp. Adults has the largest overall effective range among the three species, which indicates that its spatial influence exceeds that of Aedes species.
Table 3
Comparison of the Spherical, Exponential and Gaussian semi-variogram models for Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus and Culex spp. Adults. ME = Mean Error, RMSE = Root Mean Square Error, MSE = Mean Standardized Error, RMSSE = Root Mean Square Standardized Error, ASE = Average Standard Error
| Spherical | Gaussian | Exponential |
| Ae. aegypti |
Nugget | 237.35 | 245.23 | 244.03 |
Range | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | 0.0008 |
Partial Sill | 84.03 | 83.90 | 81.46 |
ME | -0.25 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
RMSE | 17.77 | 17.76 | 17.77 |
MSE | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
RMSSE | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
ASE | 18.85 | 19.00 | 18.95 |
| Ae. albopictus |
Nugget | 0 | 103.97 | 0 |
Range | 0.00081 | 0.00081 | 0.00107 |
Partial Sill | 526.95 | 469.49 | 556.00 |
ME | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
RMSE | 20.99 | 21.26 | 21.14 |
MSE | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
RMSSE | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.87 |
ASE | 23.69 | 24.50 | 24.30 |
| Culex spp. Adults |
Nugget | 411.49 | 471.84 | 328.18 |
Range | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.004 |
Partial Sill | 261.24 | 207.78 | 350.13 |
ME | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
RMSE | 23.31 | 23.28 | 23.49 |
MSE | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RMSSE | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
ASE | 25.06 | 25.16 | 25.00 |
Related, the Spherical, Gaussian, and Exponential models all showed similar cross-validation parameters (Table 2). For Ae. aegypti and Culex spp. Adults, the Gaussian MSE and RMSE values were slightly lower than the values of the two other models. Meanwhile, the Spherical model for Ae. albopictus exhibited the lowest RMSE value; however, the ME value was higher for the Gaussian model. According to the Spherical model, the ASE is somewhat closer to the RMSE for the three species. For Ae. albopictus, the RMSSE was closer to 1 under the Spherical model, however, for Culex spp. Adults was higher under the Gaussian model. For Ae. aegypti, the RMSSE was similar across all models. For Ae. aegypti and Culex spp. Adults, predicted maps were generated using the Gaussian model, whereas for Ae. albopictus, the Spherical model was used (Fig. 5). The maps revealed an important risk of Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, and Culex spp. Adults in the northern zone of the city. For Culex spp. Adults, the risk is along the city, followed by Ae. aegypti, for Ae. albopictus, the risk is lower.