General characteristics
Initially, we screened 106 patients diagnosed with septic shock and ARDS. Of these, seven patients either died or were discharged within 24 hours of admission to the RICU. Additionally, exclusions included nine patients with malignant neoplasms, six receiving immunosuppressive drugs, four affected by oral diseases or heavy bleeding, and thirteen unable to undergo invasive mechanical ventilation (see Fig.1). Ultimately, 67 patients were included in the study—43 males and 24 females—with an average age of 74.12 ± 14.01 years. Based on the 24-hour change in SOFA scores, patients were classified into two groups: the deterioration group (n=34) and the non-deterioration group (n=33). No significant statistical differences were observed in the baseline characteristics between these groups (P > 0.05) (see Table 1).
Table 1. Patient characteristics of the study population.Data are presented as means (standard deviation; ± SD), median (interquartile range; IQR), or counts (percentage). Differences were tested using the Kruskal-Wallis test or Fisher exact test unless indicated otherwise.APACHE-Ⅱ: Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II, SCr, serum creatinine; Tbil, total bilirubin; CRP, c-reactive protein; PCT, procalcitonin; PLT, blood platelet; RICU, ICU, respiratory intensive care unit. *P<0.05.
Characteristics
|
Deterioration
|
Non-deterioration
|
χ²/t/Z
|
P
|
(n=34)
|
(n=33)
|
Age (years)
|
71.94±15.58
|
76.36±12.02
|
1.298
|
0.199
|
Males
|
22(64.7)
|
21(63.6)
|
0.008
|
0.927
|
Temperature (℃)
|
37.40±1.06
|
37.60±0.99
|
0.786
|
0.435
|
Respiratory rate (breaths/min)
|
21.86±4.59
|
21.00±3.35
|
0.871
|
0.387
|
Comorbidities
|
|
|
|
|
Hypertension
|
11(32.4)
|
15(45.5)
|
1.210
|
0.271
|
Diabetes
|
10(29.4)
|
9(27.3)
|
0.038
|
0.846
|
Cardiovascular
|
16(47.1)
|
15(45.5)
|
0.017
|
0.895
|
Respiratory
|
14(41.2)
|
10(30.3)
|
0.861
|
0.353
|
Site of infection
|
|
|
1.410
|
0.914
|
Respiratory tract
|
11(32.4)
|
14(42.4)
|
|
|
Intra-abdominal
|
5(14.7)
|
4(12.1)
|
|
|
Urinary tract
|
5(14.7)
|
4(12.1)
|
|
|
Skin/soft tissue
|
9(26.5)
|
6(18.2)
|
|
|
Others
|
4(11.8)
|
5(15.2)
|
|
|
APACHE Ⅱ score
|
24.23±5.86
|
22.82±5.24
|
1.042
|
0.301
|
SCr (μ mol/L)
|
127.50±84.25
|
104.97±71.24
|
1.180
|
0.242
|
Tbil (μ mol/L)
|
23.65(17.68,43.13)
|
19.60(9.70,27.10)
|
-2.596
|
0.009*
|
CRP (mg/L)
|
119.45±82.40
|
94.63±72.82
|
1.305
|
0.196
|
PCT (ng/L)
|
28.17±42.50
|
8.19±13.36
|
2.611
|
0.013*
|
PLT (×109 /L)
|
113.41±80.10
|
133.24±81.55
|
1.004
|
0.319
|
RICU deaths
|
15(44.1)
|
6(18.2)
|
5.235
|
0.022*
|
Two groups of hemodynamic and microcirculatory perfusion indicators
At the outset and six hours post-admission, there were no significant differences in heart rate (HR), central venous pressure (CVP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), or PaO2/FiO2 ratios between the two groups (P>0.05). Similarly, no significant differences were noted in initial SDC-1 and PPV values. However, after six hours of treatment, SDC-1 levels in the deterioration group were significantly higher, and PPV significantly lower, compared to the non-deterioration group (P<0.05) (see Table 2). Additionally, both ΔPPV and LCR were lower in the deterioration group compared to the non-deterioration group (P<0.05) (see Fig.1).
Table 2. Comparison of patient indicators between the two groups. HR, heart rate; CVP, central venous pressure; MAP, mean arterial pressure; PaO2/FiO2-ratio, pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen-ratio PPV, the proportion of perfused vessels. *P<0.05.
Characteristics
|
|
Deterioration
|
Non-deterioration
|
t
|
P
|
|
|
(n=34)
|
(n=33)
|
HR (min-1)
|
0 h
|
100.59±8.00
|
97.24±7.75
|
0.805
|
0.087
|
|
6 h
|
97.50±12.98
|
93.88±6.13
|
1.467
|
1.149
|
CVP (cmH2O)
|
0 h
|
9.32±2.77
|
9.12±1.43
|
0.195
|
0.710
|
|
6 h
|
9.38±2.28
|
9.27±1.35
|
0.240
|
0.811
|
MAP (mmHg)
|
0 h
|
73.36±13.97
|
73.44±11.79
|
0.023
|
0.981
|
|
6 h
|
79.61±14.98
|
81.09±10.58
|
0.468
|
0.641
|
SDC-1(ng/mL)
|
0 h
|
54.60±15.08
|
52.72±16.93
|
0.482
|
0.631
|
|
6 h
|
65.32(57.71,69.89)
|
51.89(46.31,64.53)
|
-3.411
|
0.001
|
PaO2/FiO2
|
0 h
|
186.32±70.08
|
187.24±62.16
|
0.057
|
0.955
|
|
6 h
|
218.78±89.58
|
231.86±65.62
|
0.683
|
0.499
|
Lac (mmol/L)
|
0 h
|
7.3(5.28,9.65)
|
5.1(3.90,6.75)
|
-2.735
|
0.006*
|
|
6 h
|
6.25(4.52,8.75)
|
4.00(3.15,5.45)
|
-3.375
|
0.001*
|
PPV %
|
0 h
|
70.61±11.94
|
72.28±12.25
|
0.404
|
0.574
|
|
6 h
|
74.54±11.58
|
81.18±12.54
|
0.297
|
0.028*
|
LCR
|
-
|
13.41(4.06,20.71)
|
17.65(9.71,29.75)
|
-2.602
|
0.009*
|
ΔPPV
|
-
|
6.41(3.08,8.78)
|
11.66(8.75,14.07)
|
-4.402
|
<0.001*
|
Correlation between PPV and serum SDC-1 levels
Spearman correlation analysis demonstrated a negative correlation between ΔPPV and SDC-1 (rs = -0.310, p = 0.011) (see Fig. 2).
Multivariate regression analysis on early organ function deterioration
Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that factors including ΔPPV and LCR were independently associated with the onset of early organ function deterioration (see Table 3).
Table 3. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of factors influencing early organ deterioration SE, Standard error; CI, Confidence interval; OR, Odds ratio.
Variable
|
B
|
SE
|
Wals
|
P
|
OR
|
95%CI
|
Tbil
|
0.024
|
0.014
|
2.699
|
0.100
|
1.024
|
0.995~1.053
|
PCT
|
0.038
|
0.022
|
2.923
|
0.087
|
1.038
|
0.995~1.084
|
ΔPPV
|
-0.201
|
0.068
|
8.747
|
0.003
|
0.818
|
0.716~0.935
|
LCR
|
-0.077
|
0.031
|
6.223
|
0.013
|
0.926
|
0.871~0.984
|
Predictive test and subgroup survival analysis of early organ function deterioration
ROC analysis indicated that ΔPPV possesses predictive value for early organ function deterioration in patients with septic shock and ARDS. The combined area under the curve (AUC) for ΔPPV and LCR was 0.871, with a sensitivity of 61.80% and a specificity of 97.00% (see Fig. 3,Table 4).
Table 4. Predictive value of single and combined indicators in the early organ function deterioration ROC, Receiver operating characteristic; AUC, Area under the curve.
Variable
|
AUC(95%CI)
|
Sensitivity(%)
|
Specificity(%)
|
Cutoff
|
P
|
ΔPPV
|
0.813(0.707,0.919)
|
90.90
|
64.70
|
7.642
|
<0.0001
|
LCR
|
0.685(0.559,0.811)
|
69.70
|
38.20
|
14.557
|
0.009
|
ΔPPV+ LCR
|
0.884(0.803,0.965)
|
61.80
|
97.00
|
-
|
<0.0001
|
Based on the established cutoff values for ΔPPV and LCR, patients were categorized into four groups: (1) ΔPPV ≥ 7.6% and LCR ≥ 14.6%, (2) ΔPPV ≥ 7.6% and LCR < 14.6%, (3) ΔPPV < 7.6% and LCR ≥ 14.6%, and (4) ΔPPV < 7.6% and LCR < 14.6%. The cumulative survival rate of patients in the first group was significantly higher than that of the other three groups (Log-rank test: χ² = 38.39, P < 0.001) (see Fig. 4).