3.1. Forward Mendelian randomization results
Using the SNP threshold (P<5×10-8), instrumental variables of a total of 41 inflammatory proteins among 91 inflammatory proteins were extracted for TSMR analysis. The results showed that elevated levels of T cell surface glycoprotein CD5 were associated with reduced risk of AD (OR=0.766, PIVW=0.003), and the analysis showed no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=2, Q p-value=0.651) , and there is no horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept = 0.984, P MR Presso=0.864); the study also found that the level of C-X-C motif chemokine 11 (OR=0.853, PIVW=0.043), C-X-C motif chemokine 11 Increased levels (OR=0.85, PIVW=0.043), increased levels of C-X-C motif chemokine 9 (OR=0.727, PIVW=0.001), and increased levels of Fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 ligand (OR=0.873, PIVW= 0.047) will also reduce the risk of AD, and no significant heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy were found (as shown in Table 1). Higher interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels were associated with increased risk of AD (OR = 1.164, PIVW = 0.001), and the analysis showed no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q = 4, Q p-value = 0.424) and no Horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger intercept=0.579, P MRPresso=0.626), in addition, increased cytokine levels induced by TNF-related activation were associated with increased risk of AD (OR=1.119, PIVW=0.045), with no significant difference Qualitative (MR Egger Q=5, Qp-value=0.795) or horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept)=0.47, P MR Presso=0.782). In the 41 inflammatory factor data set, under the SNP threshold (P<5×10-8), there are 12 inflammatory factors with no less than 3 SNPs. The instrumental variables of 12 inflammatory proteins were extracted for TSMR analysis. Positive results were found to be significantly correlated with the AD data set, and CRP was not found to be significantly correlated with the AD data set at the SNP threshold (P<5×10-8). All positive results and instrumental variable specific details at the P<5×10-8 threshold are listed in Supplementary Tables 2-3. The forest plot of all positive results is shown in Figure 2.
Some proteins did not yield SNPs due to the original selection criteria, leading us to relax the conditions. We selected SNPs with a threshold P<5×10-7 as instrumental variables and performed TSMR analysis on 71 inflammatory proteins. The results were as follows: Elevated levels of C-X-C motif chemokine 9 were associated with reduced AD risk (OR=0.727, PIVW=0.001), and the analysis showed no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=2, Q p-value=0.652), and there is no horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.66, P MR Presso=0.813); the study also found that increased levels of Fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 ligand (OR=0.835, PIVW=0.004) will also In reducing the risk of AD, no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=11, Q p-value=0.566) and horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.296, P MR Presso=0.813) were found. It was also found that higher interleukin 13 levels were associated with increased risk of AD (OR=1.353, PIVW=0.034), and the analysis showed no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=1, Q p value=0.288), involving With less than three SNPs, horizontal pleiotropy testing cannot be performed. In addition, higher interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels are associated with increased risk of AD (OR=1.164, PIVW=0.001), and the analysis showed no significant heterogeneity. (MR Egger Q=4, Q p-value=0.424) and no horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger intercept=0.579, P MRPresso=0.628). In the 41 inflammatory factor data set, under the SNP threshold (P<5×10-7), there are 17 inflammatory factors with no less than 3 SNPs. The instrumental variables of 17 inflammatory proteins were extracted for TSMR analysis. Positive results were found to be significantly associated with the AD dataset, CRP was not found to be significantly associated with the AD dataset at the SNP threshold (P<5×10-7), All positive results with a threshold of P<5×10-7 are listed in Supplementary Table 2, and the instrumental variable details are listed in Supplementary Table 4. A forest plot of all positive results is shown in Figure 3.
We selected SNPs with a threshold P<5×10-6 as instrumental variables to enable TSMR analysis of all 91 inflammatory proteins. The results are as follows: increased levels of T cell surface glycoprotein CD5 are associated with reduced risk of AD (OR=0.832, P IVW=0.047), but the heterogeneity is obvious (MR Egger Q=17, Q p value=0.002), with Significant horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.6, PMR Presso=0.003); the study also found that increased levels of C-X-C motif chemokine 11 (OR=0.878, P IVW=0.025) also reduced the risk of AD, There was no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=20, Q p-value=0.473) or horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.06, P MRPresso=0.337). At the same time, higher interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels were associated with increased risk of AD (OR = 1.158, PIVW = 0.001), and the analysis showed no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q = 20, Q p value = 0.555) There was no horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger intercept=0.379, P MRPresso=0.656). In addition, higher interleukin-6 levels were associated with an increased risk of AD (OR=1.282, PIVW=0.037), with no significant difference. Qualitative (MR Egger Q = 6, Q Pvalue = 0.09) or horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept = 0.194, P MRPresso=0.168); higher tumor necrosis factor ligand superfamily member 14 levels are associated with AD risk Elevated association (OR=1.154, PIVW=0.022), no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=22, Q p-value=0.094) or level pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.077, P MRPresso=0.052) ; In addition, higher TNF-a levels were also associated with increased risk of AD (OR=1.282, PIVW=0.037) without significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=6, Q p-value=0.09) or level pleiotropic effects Sex (P Egger Intercept=0.194, P MR Presso=0.168).
Under the SNP threshold (P<5×10-6), TMSR analysis of all 41 inflammatory factors can be performed on the 41 inflammatory factor data set, and it was found that increased MIG levels will also reduce the risk of AD (OR=0.89, PIVW = 0.005), no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=11, Q p-value = 0.35), horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.295, P MRPresso=0.374)
In the case of SNP threshold (P<5×10-6), no positive results were found that CRP was significantly related to the AD data set. When the parameters of SNP linkage balance were adjusted to r2<0.01 (clustering distance = 500kb), Positive results appeared, suggesting that crp levels may be related to AD (OR=1.13, PIVW=0.045), but the results were highly heterogeneous (MR Egger Q=169, Q Pvalue=<0.000) and significant The horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept) = 0.119, P MRPresso <0.002). The evidence is insufficient to confirm the correlation between crp and AD, and the results need to be further verified. All positive results at the P<5×10-6 threshold are listed in Supplementary Table 2, and instrumental variable details are listed in Supplementary Table 5. The forest plot of all positive results is shown in Figure 4.
From the three sets of analyses, we can draw several conclusions:
Interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels: Elevated levels of interleukin 18 receptor 1 have been found to increase the risk of AD. This result was significant in all three sets of analyzes (P IVW<0.05). After analyzing the three different thresholds, the results showed no heterogeneity and were relatively stable.
Elevated levels of C-X-C motif chemokine 9 are associated with reduced risk of AD. This analysis showed no significant heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy; increased levels of Fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 ligand also reduced the risk of AD. No significant heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy were found. These two inflammatory factors were significantly associated with AD risk reduction in the first two sets of analyzes (P IVW<0.05). Elevated levels of C-X-C motif chemokine 11 were significantly associated with reduced risk of AD in both the first and third sets of analyses (P IVW<0.05).
Next, we performed a leave-one-out analysis on the above four key results (see Figure 5). This involves excluding each SNP in turn and estimating the effect size of the remaining SNPs. The analysis showed no significant difference in effect size before and after exclusion, indicating that no single SNP had a significant impact on the MR estimate.
Table 1 Heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy test of positive results of forward analysis under different thresholds
MR
|
Inflammatory factors
|
Heterogeneity test
|
Genetic pleiotropy
|
IVW
|
MR-Egger
|
MR-Egger intercpet
|
MR-PRESSO
|
global test
|
Q
|
P
|
Q
|
P
|
Intercept
|
P
|
RSSobs
|
P
|
5.00E+08
|
T-cell surface glycoprotein CD5 levels
|
3
|
0.836
|
2
|
0.651
|
-0.002
|
0.984
|
1.417
|
0.864
|
|
C-X-C motif chemokine 11 levels
|
3
|
0.364
|
2
|
0.237
|
0.018
|
0.693
|
5.824
|
0.483
|
|
C-X-C motif chemokine 9 levels
|
3
|
0.773
|
2
|
0.652
|
-0.025
|
0.659
|
1.809
|
0.820
|
|
Fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 ligand levels
|
8
|
0.718
|
7
|
0.637
|
-0.006
|
0.690
|
6.892
|
0.723
|
|
interleukin-18 receptor 1 levels
|
5
|
0.516
|
4
|
0.424
|
0.049
|
0.579
|
5.181
|
0.626
|
|
TNF-related activation-induced cytokine levels
|
6
|
0.811
|
5
|
0.795
|
0.017
|
0.470
|
4.440
|
0.782
|
5.00E+07
|
C-X-C motif chemokine 9 levels
|
3
|
0.773
|
2
|
0.652
|
-0.025
|
0.659
|
1.809
|
0.813
|
Fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 ligand levels
|
12
|
0.545
|
11
|
0.566
|
-0.015
|
0.296
|
12.587
|
0.568
|
Interleukin-13 levels
|
2
|
0.396
|
1
|
0.288
|
0.078
|
0.570
|
|
|
interleukin-18 receptor 1 levels
|
5
|
0.516
|
4
|
0.424
|
0.049
|
0.579
|
5.181
|
0.628
|
5.00E+06
|
T-cell surface glycoprotein CD5 levels
|
18
|
0.002
|
17
|
0.002
|
0.013
|
0.600
|
43.979
|
0.003
|
C-X-C motif chemokine 11 levels
|
21
|
0.307
|
20
|
0.473
|
0.028
|
0.060
|
25.847
|
0.337
|
interleukin-18 receptor 1 levels
|
21
|
0.566
|
20
|
0.555
|
-0.010
|
0.379
|
19.971
|
0.659
|
Interleukin-6 levels
|
7
|
0.038
|
6
|
0.090
|
-0.039
|
0.194
|
44.367
|
0.168
|
Tumor necrosis factor ligand superfamily member 14 levels
|
23
|
0.041
|
22
|
0.094
|
0.021
|
0.077
|
40.589
|
0.052
|
TNF-related activation-induced cytokine levels
|
27
|
0.690
|
28
|
0.734
|
0.003
|
0.771
|
24.460
|
0.757
|
|
MIG
|
13.523
|
0.332
|
12.183
|
0.350
|
-0.023
|
0.295
|
15.532
|
0.374
|
3.2. Reverse Mendelian randomization results
In the reverse Mendelian randomization analysis involving AD and 91 inflammatory proteins, the following positive results were obtained: AXIN-1 level: Increased risk of AD was associated with decreased AXIN-1 level (OR=0.950, PIVW=0.011). The analysis showed no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=37, Q p-value=0.783) and no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.419, P MR-Presso=0.754). Natural killer cell receptor 2B4 level: Increased risk of AD was associated with decreased natural killer cell receptor 2B4 level (OR=0.962, PIVW=0.032). No significant heterogeneity was observed in this analysis (MR Egger Q=37, Q P value=0.386), and there was no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept= 0.851, P MR-Presso=0.452). Interleukin 10 receptor subunit alpha levels: Increased AD risk was associated with decreased levels of natural killer cell receptor 2B4 (OR=0.957, P IVW=0.030). No significant heterogeneity was observed in this analysis (MR Egger Q=37, Q p-value=0.452), and there was no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept= 0.523, P MR Presso=0.460). Interleukin 33 levels: Increased AD risk was associated with decreased interleukin 33 levels (OR=0.960, PIVW=0.041). No significant heterogeneity was observed in this analysis (as shown in Table 2),and there was no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.141, P MRPresso=0.528). Cystatin D levels: In contrast, increased AD risk was associated with elevated cystatin D levels (OR=1.040, PIVW=0.029). The analysis also showed no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q =37, QP value=0.649) and no horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.209, P MRPresso=0.642).
In the case of the SNP threshold (P<5×10-6) of the 41 inflammatory factor datasets, 2 inflammatory proteins were significantly associated with the AD dataset, and an increased risk of AD may lead to increased IL18 levels (OR=1.078, PIVW=0.036). After analysis, it was found that the results had no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=37, Q p value=0.379) and horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept)=0.465, P MRPresso=0.412). Increased AD risk was associated with increased MIG levels (OR=1.079, PIVW=0.046), with no significant heterogeneity (MR Egger Q=37, Q p value=0.166) and horizontal pleiotropy (P Egger Intercept=0.269, P MRPresso=0.175).
In the reverse TSMR analysis of the CRP dataset and the GWAS instrumental variables of AD, no positive results significantly associated with the AD dataset were found. All positive results of the reverse MR analysis under the threshold of P<5×10-6 are listed in Supplementary Table 2, and the specific details of the instrumental variables are listed in Supplementary Table 6. The forest plot of all positive results is shown in Figure 6, and the sensitivity analysis performed by the leave-one-out method demonstrated robust results (see Figure 7).
3.3. Validation group results
We selected three SNP thresholds (P<5×10−8, P<5×10−7, P<5×10−6), took 17 inflammatory proteins as exposure objects, and AD as the outcome, and performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. The forest plot of the research results is shown in Figure 8. The clustering conditions were the same as the initial test set. The specific results are shown in Supplementary Tables 7-9. After analysis, it was found that interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels and Fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 were correlated with the AD validation set in the three different SNP threshold groups. This suggests that increased interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels may be a risk factor for AD, and increased Fms-related tyrosine kinase3 levels may be a protective factor for AD. Among them, interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels were significant for AD both in the initial exploration stage and in the validation set. When we performed reverse validation with AD as the exposure factor, we observed an opposite causal relationship between interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels and AD, and there was no obvious heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy. The specific results of the reverse validation analysis are shown in Supplementary Table 10. These results indicate that there is a complex interaction between interleukin 18 receptor 1 levels and AD, which may involve a bidirectional causal relationship. In the reverse validation, it was also found that higher levels of tumor necrosis factor ligand superfamily member 14 were significantly correlated with the AD validation set, but the results were subject to heterogeneity tests and horizontal pleiotropy tests. We also observed an opposite causal relationship in the initial GWAS set. These results indicate that there may be a bidirectional causal relationship between AD and tumor necrosis factor ligand superfamily member 14, but it still needs to be verified. In addition, the remaining positive results were not found to be significantly correlated with the AD validation data set. After validation analysis, CRP was also not found to be significantly associated with the AD validation set. All positive results of forward and reverse validation are shown in Supplementary Table 11.