Clinical characteristics of participants
Baseline characteristics of the cases and controls are shown in Table 1. Compared to the healthy controls, neutrophil count and ratio, CRP, IL-6 and sST2 are all higher in the COPD patients (all with P < 0.05). Age, sex, BMI, leukocyte count, PCT, AST, CK, and CK-MB were comparable between the groups. The levels of Tn and Mb in COPD patients were significantly higher than those in healthy controls, but remained within the range of normal reference values (Table 1). Compared to healthy controls, the sST2 levels in patients with 4-week stable disease were higher, but the FVC, FEV1, and FEV1/FVC levels were lower (Fig. 1a). Nonetheless, in patients with a 4-week stable condition, there were no significant correlation between sST2 and systemic inflammation, as indicated by its correlations with CRP (R = 0.048, P > 0.05), PCT (R=-0.143, P > 0.05), IL-6 (R=-0.184, P > 0.05), leukocyte count (R=-0.381, P < 0.05), neutrophil count (R=-0.058, P > 0.05). Additionally, there were no significant correlation with disease severity, as indicated by sST2’s correlations with CAT (R=-0.220, P > 0.05), MMRC (R=-0.427, P < 0.05), GOLD (R = 0.346, P > 0.05) (Fig. 2). Overall, for the 4-week stable condition, the correlations between sST2 and the above clinical indexes were weak, which aligns with clinical expectation.
Table 1
Characteristics of healthy controls and COPD patients
Parameter | Healthy controls | COPD patients | P-value |
Number | 33 | 85 | - |
Age, mean (SD) | 53.2 (12.5) | 67.9 (9.4) | < 0.001 |
Male, n (%) | 20 (60.6) | 77 (90.6) | < 0.001 |
BMI, median (IQR) | 24.7 (22.4–26.6) | 22.3 (18.9–24.0) | < 0.001 |
Smoker, n (%) | - | 60 (70.6%) | - |
Smoking index, median (IQR) | - | 600 (0-1000) | - |
GOLD, n | | | - |
GOLD 1 | - | 1 | |
GOLD 2 | - | 32 | |
GOLD 3 | - | 22 | |
GOLD 4 | - | 30 | |
CAT, median (IQR) | - | 20.0 (17.0-23.5) | - |
mMRC, median (IQR) | - | 3.0 (2.0–4.0) | - |
Lung function test | | | |
FVC, % predicted, median (IQR) | 83.7 (71.4-102.9) | 67.4 (54.1–75.5) | < 0.001 |
FEV1, % predicted, median (IQR) | 84.9 (70.6–96.8) | 42.5 (25.2–54.0) | < 0.001 |
FEV1/FVC, median (IQR) | 101.4 (92.1-107.7) | 61.7 (42.5–67.8) | < 0.001 |
Laboratory tests | | | |
Leukocyte (*109/L), median (IQR) | 7.7 (6.0-8.8) | 7.6 (5.8–10.4) | 0.365 |
Neutrophils(*109/L), median (IQR) | 4.4 (3.3–5.8) | 5.7 (4.0–8.0) | 0.007 |
Neutrophils (%), median (IQR) | 59.1 (52.1–70.0) | 77.0 (63.9–88.4) | < 0.001 |
sST2(ng/ml), median (IQR) | 7.1 (4.2–9.8) | 32.3 (13.4–80.4) | < 0.001 |
CRP (ng/ml), median (IQR) | 1.4 (0.5–2.7) | 12.2 (3.7–30.5) | < 0.001 |
PCT (ng/ml), median (IQR) | 0.1 (0.1–0.13) | 0.1 (0.1–0.16) | 0.255 |
IL-6(pg/ml), median (IQR) | 12.7 (8.3–26.4) | 27.1 (13.2–35.1) | 0.008 |
AST | 19.5 (17.2–24.5) | 20.6 (17.3–24.8) | 0.524 |
CK | 65.2 (36.2–93.1) | 71.3 (38.5-100.4) | 0.760 |
CK-MB | 10.0 (9.0–13.0) | 12.0 (10.0–15.0) | 0.066 |
Tn | 0 (0–0) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.05 |
Mb | 17.7 (15.1–25.9) | 27.8 (19.9–38.3) | < 0.05 |
P-value, P-value between healthy controls and COPD patients. BMI, Body Mass Index; GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; CAT, COPD Assessment Test TM; mMRC, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale; FVC, Forced Vital Capacity; FEV1, Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second; FEV1/FVC, Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second/ Forced Vital Capacity; sST2, Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2; CRP, C-reactive protein; PCT, Procalcitonin; IL-6, Interleukin-6; AST, Aspartate aminotransferase; CK, Creatine Kinase; CK-MB, Creatine Kinase-MB; Tn, Troponin; Mb, Myoglobin. |
sST2 elevated in AECOPD and correlated with clinical parameters
Compared to patients with 4-week stable condition, AECOPD patients were more likely to receive oxygen therapy, and had higher CAT, mMRC scores, and laboratory parameters, such as leukocyte count, neutrophil count, neutrophil proportion, CRP, PCT, and IL-6 (all P < 0.05) (Table 2). The sST2 level in AECOPD patients was significantly higher compared to levels in patients with 4-week stable condition (68.3ng/ml vs. 12.1ng/ml, P < 0.05) (Fig. 1a). Using the GOLD criteria to categorize disease severity in AECOPD patients, we observed higher sST2 levels in GOLD IV compared to GOLD II (99.25 ng/ml vs. 44.60 ng/ml, P < 0.05, Fig. 1b). Furthermore, sST2 levels increased in higher degrees of AECOPD (P < 0.05, Fig. 1c).
Table 2
Characteristics of COPD patients with different state
Parameter | COPD at 4-weeks stable | AECOPD | P-value& | AECOPD with bacterial infection | AECOPD with non-bacterial infection | P-value# |
number | 30 | 55 | - | 21 | 34 | - |
Age, mean (SD) | 65.1 (8.7) | 69.4 (9.6) | 0.068 | 71.5 (10.4) | 68.1 (9.0) | 0.207 |
Male, n (%) | 26 (86.7) | 51 (92.7) | 0.599 | 19 (90.5) | 32 (94.1) | 1.000 |
BMI, median (IQR) | 22.4 (19.5–24.2) | 22.3 (18.6–24.0) | 0.579 | 23.1 (18.7–24.9) | 21.1 (18.2–23.8) | 0.139 |
Smoker, n (%) | 19 (63.3) | 41 (74.5) | 0.278 | 15 (71.4) | 26 (76.5) | 0.677 |
Smoking index, median (IQR) | 600 (0-1212.5) | 600 (0-1000) | 0.837 | 800 (0-1900) | 600 (75-1000) | 0.340 |
Long-term oxygen therapy, n (%) | 10 (33.3) | 34 (61.8) | 0.012 | 17 (81.0) | 17 (50.0) | 0.022 |
GOLD, n | | | 0.370 | | | 0.664 |
GOLD 1 | 1 | 0 | | 0 | 0 | |
GOLD 2 | 11 | 21 | | 7 | 14 | |
GOLD 3 | 10 | 12 | | 4 | 8 | |
GOLD 4 | 8 | 22 | | 10 | 12 | |
Exacerbation, n | | | - | | | 0.03 |
Mild exacerbation | - | 22 | | 4 | 18 | |
Moderate exacerbation | - | 16 | | 7 | 9 | |
Severe exacerbation | - | 17 | | 10 | 7 | |
CAT, median (IQR) | 17.5 (12.8–20.0) | 21.0 (19.0–26.0) | < 0.001 | 25.0 (20.0–32.0) | 21.0 (17.8–23.0) | 0.007 |
MMRC, median (IQR) | 3 (2.0-3.3) | 3.0 (3.0–4.0) | 0.004 | 4.0 (3.0–5.0) | 3.0 (2.8-4.0) | 0.01 |
Lung function test | | | | | | |
FVC, % predicted, median (IQR) | 70.2 (64.7–83.1) | 65.7 (52.5–72.0) | 0.035 | 65.0 (40.3–68.6) | 66.1 (55.3–75.1) | 0.112 |
FEV1, % predicted, median (IQR) | 46.3 (29.6–55.5) | 38.6 (24.4–53.7) | 0.175 | 31.4 (22.0-50.7) | 41.1 (25.1–54.2) | 0.149 |
FEV1/FVC, median (IQR) | 61.1 (49.5–64.6) | 63.1 (37.6–68.3) | 0.948 | 61.4 (39.1–63.8) | 64.7 (36.3–69.2) | 0.204 |
Laboratory tests | | | | | | |
Leukocyte (*109/L), median (IQR) | 5.9 (4.9–8.3) | 8.4 (7.0-11.6) | < 0.001 | 9.6 (6.8–12.6) | 7.9 (7.1–11.1) | 0.588 |
Neutrophils(*109/L), median (IQR) | 3.9 (3.0–5.0) | 6.9 (5.4–10.5) | < 0.001 | 8.4 (6.2–10.5) | 6.4 (5.1–9.5) | 0.086 |
Neutrophils (%), median (IQR) | 63.3 (55.3–70.9) | 81.2 (76.3–90.8) | < 0.001 | 89.6 (82.9–92.1) | 77.6 (70.9–86.4) | < 0.001 |
sST2 (ng/ml), median (IQR) | 12.1 (7.3–19.2) | 68.3 (32.6-119.2) | < 0.001 | 119.2 (70.1–201) | 43.0 (26.5–76.4) | < 0.001 |
CRP (ng/ml), median (IQR) | 6.6 (1.4–11.4) | 28.7 (10.1–67.8) | < 0.001 | 55.0 (29.1-108.5) | 17.3 (5.9–39.4) | 0.007 |
PCT (ng/ml), median (IQR) | 0.09 (0.09–0.09) | 0.11 (0.90 − 0.30) | < 0.001 | 0.1 (0.1–0.14) | 0.3 (0.1–1.5) | 0.003 |
IL-6 (pg/ml), median (IQR) | 20.2 (8.2–28.5) | 28.9 (21.7-127.1) | 0.014 | 126.2 (27.1-256.8) | 27.2 (11.3–33.2) | 0.012 |
&P-value, P-value between COPD patients at the stable state and COPD exacerbation; #P-value, P-value between COPD patients at exacerbation with bacterial infection and COPD at exacerbation with non-bacterial infection. |
AECOPD, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease with acute exacerbation; BMI, Body Mass Index; GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; CAT, COPD Assessment Test TM; mMRC, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale; FVC, Forced Vital Capacity; FEV1, Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second; FEV1/FVC, Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second/ Forced Vital Capacity; sST2, Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2; CRP, C-reactive protein; PCT, Procalcitonin; IL-6, Interleukin-6. |
sST2 correlated with disease severity
We used logistics regression analysis to evaluate factors associated with acute exacerbation and disease severity in COPD patients. As shown by univariate logistics regression analysis, sST2 was significantly correlated with acute exacerbation, exacerbation degree (mild, moderate, severe exacerbation), GOLD classification (GOLD Ⅱ, GOLD Ⅲ, and GOLD Ⅳ), and bacterial infection in COPD patients, with OR values of 1.142 (1.067–1.223, P < 0.05), 1.074 (1.050–1.095, P < 0.05), 1.014 (1.006–1.022, P < 0.05), and 1.031 (1.014–1.048, P < 0.05), respectively. In multivariate regression analysis adjusted with oxygen therapy, PCT, mMRC, and CAT, sST2 was an independent predictor of acute exacerbation, exacerbation degree, and bacterial infection of COPD patients, with OR values of 1.235 (1.071–1.425, P < 0.05), 1.065 (1.041–1.090, P < 0.05), 1.027 (1.005–1.051, P < 0.05), while sST2 was not an independent predictor for GOLD classification (P > 0.05) (Table 3).
Table 3
Effects of sST2 levels on predicting clinical outcome for COPD patients.
| | Univariate analysis | | Multivariate analysis | |
Clinical outcome | Number | Odds Ratio (95%CI) | P value | Odds Ratio (95%CI) | P value |
Exacerbation | 85 | 1.142 (1.067–1.223) | < 0.001 | 1.235 (1.071–1.425) | 0.004 |
Exacerbation level | 85 | 1.074 (1.050–1.095) | < 0.001 | 1.065 (1.041–1.090) | < 0.001 |
GOLD | 85 | 1.014 (1.006–1.022) | < 0.001 | 1.005 (0.990–1.020) | 0.536 |
Exacerbation with bacterial infection | 55 | 1.031 (1.014–1.048) | < 0.001 | 1.027 (1.005–1.051) | 0.017 |
Multivariate analysis, adjusted for clinical variables, procalcitonin, Soluble form of suppression of tumorigenicity-2, Forced Vital Capacity, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale, and COPD Assessment Test TM. P values were calculated using logistic regression analysis. Exacerbation level was determined by the Anthonisen criteria. |
95% CI, 95% confidence interval; GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease. |
Performance of sST2 in differentiating AECOPD patients
Using ROC curves to assess the performance of sST2 to differentiate AECOPD patients from those with 4-week stable condition, the AUC (95% CI) of sST2 was 0.94 (0.89–0.99), significantly higher than that of CRP and PCT, with the AUCs of 0.81 (0.71–0.91) and 0.74 (0.63–0.84), respectively (Fig. 1d). According to the Youden index, the cut-off value of sST2 to assign AECOPD was 30.1ng/ml, with a sensitivity of 80.0% and a specificity of 96.7%. In AECOPD patients, significant correlations were observed between sST2 and systemic inflammation, as indicated by correlations with CRP (R = 0.513, P < 0.05), PCT (R = 0.490, P < 0.05), IL-6 (R = 0.492, P < 0.05), leukocyte count ((R = 0.147, P > 0.05), neutrophil count (R = 0.320, P < 0.05), and disease severity [indicated by correlations with CAT (R = 0.620, P < 0.05), MMRC(R = 0.497, P < 0.05), GOLD (R = 0.451, P < 0.05)] (Fig. 2).
sST2 to distinguish AECOPD with bacterial infection from those with non-bacterial infection
The sST2 levels in AECOPD patients with bacterial infection were significantly higher than those with non-bacterial infection (119.20ng/ml vs. 43.0ng/ml, P < 0.05) (Fig. 3a). The ROC analysis for the performance of sST2 to differentiate AECOPD patients with bacterial infection from those with non-bacterial infection showed that the AUC (95% CI) was 0.85(0.75–0.96), surpassing that of CRP and PCT with the AUCs of 0.75 (0.60–0.90) and 0.73 (0.58–0.88), respectively (Fig. 3b). According to the Youden index, the cut-off value of sST2 to differentiate AECOPD patients with bacterial infection was 99.25 ng/ml, with a sensitivity of 66.7% and a specificity of 91.2%. The pathogen information of 21 AECOPD patients with bacterial infection is shown in supplementary Table 1. The differences in sST2 levels were not significant among AECOPD patients with various bacterial infections (P > 0.05).
sST2 levels declined after AECOPD patients reached clinical stability
We investigated the dynamic sST2 levels in AECOPD patients from acute exacerbation to clinical stability. The sST2 levels in the clinical stable stage were significantly lower than those in the acute exacerbation phase (68.30ng/ml vs. 22.00ng/ml, P < 0.05). Furthermore, the sST2 levels during clinical stability were lower than the cut-off value of AECOPD (22.00ng/ml vs. 30.1ng/ml, P < 0.05) (Fig. 4). The sST2 levels tended to decrease as the condition of AECOPD patients became stable.