Patient Characteristics
A total of 1121 adult patients with aspiration pneumonia in ICU from the MIMIC-III database were included in this study.The baseline characteristics of the patients were summarized in Table 1. 840 were included in the 28-day survivors group and 281 were included in the 28-day non-survivors group. The average age of the participants was 64.52 ± 18.12 years, and females accounted for 37.82%. Most of the participants were caucasian. Patients in 28-day non-survivors group were more likely to be older, have specific host factors, frailty vital signs, higher severity scores and more comorbidities. They had have higher respiratory rate, glucose, white blood cell counts, blood urea nitrogen, BAR, serum creatinine, sodium, chloride, anion gap, SOFA score, SAPS II score, and CURB-65 score. Meanwhile, they had have lower temperature, mean arterial pressure, platelet counts, hemoglobin, serum albumin, bicarbonate. These 28-day non-survivors also tended to have a history of neurovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, tumor, sepsis. Additionally, vasopressor were used more frequently in non-survivors.
Table 1
Comparison of Baseline Characteristics Between the Survivors Group and Non-Survivors Group
Variables | Total cohort N = 1121 | 28-day survivors N = 840 | 28-day non-survivors N = 281 | P-value |
Baseline characteristics | | | | |
Age, years | 64.52 ± 18.12 | 62.16 ± 18.19 | 71.59 ± 15.98 | < 0.001 |
Female, n (%) | 424(37.82) | 313(37.26) | 111(39.50) | 0.503 |
Ethnicity, n (%) | | | | 0.191 |
Caucasian | 805(71.81) | 608(72.38) | 197(70.11) | |
Black | 73(6.51) | 59(7.02) | 14(4.98) | |
Others | 243(21.68) | 173(20.60) | 70(24.91) | |
Vital signs within 24h after ICU admission | | | | |
Temperature, ◦C | 36.99 ± 0.79 | 37.07 ± 0.74 | 36.73 ± 0.87 | < 0.001 |
HR, beats/min | 89.32 ± 16.71 | 89.47 ± 16.27 | 88.87 ± 17.98 | 0.600 |
RR, beats/min | 20.57 ± 4.48 | 20.29 ± 4.44 | 21.42 ± 4.48 | < 0.001 |
MAP,mmHg | 78.70 ± 11.06 | 79.19 ± 11.11 | 77.24 ± 10.82 | 0.011 |
Spo2,% | 97.28 ± 1.97 | 97.32 ± 1.92 | 97.15 ± 2.12 | 0.218 |
Glucose, mg/dL | 144.62 ± 46.87 | 142.05 ± 45.44 | 152.30 ± 50.20 | 0.002 |
Risk factor, n (%) | | | | |
Neurovascular disease | 93(8.30) | 61(7.26) | 32(11.39) | 0.030 |
Esophageal reflux | 108(9.63) | 77(9.17) | 31(11.03) | 0.359 |
Dysphagia | 221(19.71) | 189(22.50) | 32(11.39) | 0.001 |
Comorbidity, n (%) | | | | |
Hypertension | 102(9.10) | 64(7.62) | 38(13.52) | 0.003 |
Diabetes | 246(21.94) | 173(20.60) | 73(25.98) | 0.059 |
Coronary disease | 138(12.31) | 103(12.26) | 35(12.46) | 0.932 |
Chronic pulmonary disease | 205(18.29) | 150(17.86) | 55(19.57) | 0.520 |
Chronic kidney disease | 121(10.79) | 78(9.29) | 43(15.30) | 0.005 |
Liver disease | 122(10.88) | 87(10.36) | 35(12.46) | 0.328 |
Heart failure | 279(24.89) | 195(23.21) | 84(29.89) | 0.025 |
Tumor | 71(6.33) | 40(4.76) | 31(11.03) | < 0.001 |
Sepsis | 230(20.52) | 138(16.43) | 92(32.74) | < 0.001 |
ARDS | 107(9.55) | 81(9.64) | 26(9.25) | 0.847 |
Score system | | | | |
SOFA | 5.99 ± 3.37 | 5.61 ± 3.18 | 7.15 ± 3.66 | < 0.001 |
SAPS II | 54.13 ± 22.01 | 50.81 ± 20.62 | 64.07 ± 23.05 | < 0.001 |
CRUB-65 | 3.00 ± 1.11 | 2.84 ± 1.10 | 3.46 ± 1.00 | < 0.001 |
Laboratory data on the first day after ICU admission | | | | |
WBC counts, k/uL | 12.94 ± 7.03 | 12.68 ± 6.84 | 13.71 ± 7.51 | 0.032 |
Platelet counts, k/uL | 216.58 ± 115.27 | 220.28 ± 116.06 | 205.51 ± 112.37 | 0.063 |
Hemoglobin, g/dL | 11.13 ± 2.08 | 11.27 ± 2.04 | 10.71 ± 2.12 | < 0.001 |
Blood urea nitrogen, mg/dl | 28.75 ± 22.02 | 25.45 ± 19.48 | 38.62 ± 25.92 | < 0.001 |
Serum albumin, g/dL | 2.97 ± 0.63 | 3.01 ± 0.61 | 2.84 ± 0.67 | < 0.001 |
BAR, mg/g | 10.54 ± 9.49 | 9.13 ± 8.13 | 14.77 ± 11.78 | < 0.001 |
Serum creatinine, mg/dL | 1.39 ± 1.23 | 1.31 ± 1.23 | 1.62 ± 1.21 | < 0.001 |
Potassium, mmol/L | 4.01 ± 0.73 | 4.00 ± 0.74 | 4.05 ± 0.71 | 0.261 |
Sodium, mmol/L | 140.07 ± 6.12 | 139.83 ± 5.84 | 140.79 ± 6.86 | 0.024 |
Chloride, mmol/L | 106.15 ± 7.26 | 105.86 ± 7.06 | 107.00 ± 7.77 | 0.023 |
Anion gap, mEq/L | 15.07 ± 3.79 | 14.79 ± 3.54 | 15.89 ± 4.37 | < 0.001 |
Bicarbonate, mEq/L | 22.82 ± 4.74 | 23.06 ± 4.62 | 22.10 ± 5.02 | 0.003 |
Therapies on the first day after ICU admission, n (%) | | | | |
Ventilator use | 779(69.49) | 588(70.00) | 191(67.97) | 0.523 |
Renal replacement therapy use | 40(3.57) | 27(3.21) | 13(4.63) | 0.269 |
Vasopressor use | 389(34.70) | 265(31.55) | 124(44.13) | < 0.001 |
HR, heart rate; RR, respiratory rate; MAP, mean arterial pressure; ARDS, acute respiratory distress syndrome; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; SAPSII, Simplifified Acute Physiology Score; CURB-65, Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure plus age ≥ 65 years; WBC, white blood cell; BAR, blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio.
Association Between BAR and AP
The ROC curves generated by variables (BAR, SOFA scores, SAPS II scores and CURB-65 scores) for prediction of mortality are shown in Fig. 1. BAR had a higher area under the curve (AUC) value than that of SOFA scores and CURB-65 scores in prediction of mortality (28-day mortality: BAR AUC = 0.693 (95% CI 0.658–0.727) vs. SOFA AUC = 0.623 (95% CI 0.586–0.660) vs. CURB-65 AUC = 0.653 (95% CI 0.618–0.687), P = 0.004; 90 day mortality: BAR AUC = 0.701 (95% CI 0.670–0.733) vs. SOFA AUC = 0.617 (95% CI 0.583–0.651) vs. CURB-65 AUC = 0.675 (95% CI 0.644–0.706), P < 0.001; 365 day mortality: BAR AUC = 0.703 (95% CI 0.670– 0.733) vs. SOFA AUC = 0.594 (95% CI 0.561–0.6271) vs. CURB-65 AUC = 0.682 (95% CI 0.652–0.712), P < 0.001), and was similar to the SAPS II scores (28-day mortality: vs. SAPS II AUC = 0.718 (95% CI 0.685– 0.750), P = 0.201; 90-day mortality: vs. SAPS II AUC = 0.716 (95% CI 0.685– 0.746), P = 0.400; 365-day mortality: vs. SAPS II AUC = 0.715 (95% CI 0.685– 0.744), P = 0.476) (Fig. 1A-C). Besides, Kaplan–Meier curves showed the 365-day survival difference between the two BAR groups (Fig. 1D). Patients with high BAR levels had significantly higher 365-day mortality risk than those with lower BAR levels (log-rank p < 0.001).
According to ROC curve analysis, the optimal cutoff value of BAR for predicting 28-day mortality was 8.03 mg/g. This cutoff value was then used to classify the patients into low (≤ 8.03) and high (> 8.03) BAR group. The clinical outcomes of the subjects across the BAR are displayed in Table 2. 28-day mortality was 25.07%, 90-day mortality was 33.99%, and 487(43.44%) patients had died after 365-day follow-up. Patients with high BAR levels showed significantly higher rate of ICU, in-hospital, 28-day, 90-day and 365-day mortality, and longer lengths of ICU and hospital stays compared to patients with low BAR levels.
Table 2
Outcomes of subjects across the BAR strata
Variables | All patients N = 1121 | BAR ≤ 8.03 N = 600 | 8.03<BAR N = 521 | P-value |
Primary outcome | | | | |
28-day mortality, n (%) | 281(25.07) | 82(13.67) | 199(38.20) | < 0.001 |
90-day mortality, n (%) | 381(33.99) | 120(20.00) | 261(50.10) | < 0.001 |
365-day mortality, n (%) | 487(43.44) | 174(29.00) | 313(60.08) | < 0.001 |
Secondary outcomes | | | | |
ICU mortality, n (%) | 153(13.65) | 48(8.00) | 105(20.15) | < 0.001 |
In-hospital mortality, n (%) | 247(22.03) | 75(12.50) | 172(33.01) | < 0.001 |
Time in ICU, days | 4.89[2.74,10.54] | 4.77[2.58,9.87] | 5.10[2.81,11.21] | 0.028 |
Time in hospital, days | 12.28[7.42,21.11] | 11.88[6.97,20] | 13.02[7.91,22.16] | 0.015 |
In multivariable cox regression analysis, which was shown in Table 3, we further evaluate the significance of BAR in predicting unfavorable outcomes. After adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, risk factors, comorbidities, interventions, score system, vital signs and laboratory results, we found that high BAR was still associated with higher risks of the 28-day(HR 1.89, 95%CI 1.37–2.60, P < 0.001) ,90-day (HR 1.76, 95%CI 1.34–2.31, P < 0.001) and 365-day (HR 1.50, 95%CI 1.18–1.89, P = 0.001) mortality.
Table 3
Multivariable cox regression analysis of baseline BAR for mortality
Exposure | Non-adjusted | | Adjust I | | Adjust II | | Adjust III |
HR(95%CI) | p-value | | HR(95% CI) | p-value | | HR(95% CI) | p-value | | HR(95% CI) | p-value |
28-day mortality |
BAR | 1.04(1.03,1.05) | < 0.001 | | 1.03(1.02,1.04) | < 0.001 | | 1.03(1.02,1.04) | < 0.001 | | 1.02(1.00,1.03) | 0.008 |
Low BAR(≤ 8.03) | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | |
High BAR(>8.03) | 3.23(2.50,4.18) | < 0.001 | | 2.70(2.07,3.52) | < 0.001 | | 2.39(1.81,3.15) | < 0.001 | | 1.89(1.37,2.60) | < 0.001 |
90-day mortality |
BAR | 1.04(1.03,1.05) | < 0.001 | | 1.03(1.02,1.04) | < 0.001 | | 1.03(1.02,1.04) | < 0.001 | | 1.02(1.00,1.03) | 0.014 |
Low BAR(≤ 8.03) | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | |
High BAR(>8.03) | 3.10(2.50,3.85) | < 0.001 | | 2.46(1.97,3.07) | < 0.001 | | 2.24(1.77,2.82) | < 0.001 | | 1.76(1.34,2.31) | < 0.001 |
365-day mortality | | | | | | | | | | | |
BAR | 1.04(1.03,1.04) | < 0.001 | | 1.03(1.02,1.04) | < 0.001 | | 1.03(1.02,1.03) | < 0.001 | | 1.01(1.00,1.02) | 0.022 |
Low BAR(≤ 8.03) | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | | | 1.00(Reference) | |
High BAR(>8.03) | 2.76(2.29,3.32) | < 0.001 | | 2.14(1.77,2.59) | < 0.001 | | 1.92(1.57,2.34) | < 0.001 | | 1.50(1.18,1.89) | 0.001 |
Adjusted I for age, gender and ethnicity; |
Adjusted II for age, gender, ethnicity, neurovascular disease, dysphagia, hypertension, diabete, chronic kidney disease, liver disease, heart failure, sepsis, ARDS, tumor, renal replacement therapy use, vasopressor use;
Adjusted III for age, gender, ethnicity, temperature, RR, MAP, glucose, WBC, hemoglobin, platelet, creatinine, albumin, blood urea nitrogen, potassium, sodium, chloride, anion gap, bicarbonate, SOFA, SAPS II, CURB-65, neurovascular disease, dysphagia, hypertension, diabete, chronic kidney disease, liver disease, heart failure, sepsis, ARDS, tumor, renal replacement therapy use, vasopressor use;
Besides, we used the restricted cubic spline to visually displayed the non-linear relationship between BAR and the 28-day, 90-day, 365-day all-cause mortality in Fig. 2.The results showed that mortality increased significantly as the BAR increased when BAR was low, but mortality increased slowly as the BAR increased if BAR was higher.
Subgroup Analyses
We performed subgroup analysis to explore whether BAR remained a prognostic factor in certain patient subgroups. Figure 3 demonstrated that BAR was an independent prognostic factor in almost subgroups except for patients with neurovascular disease, ARDS, and renal replacement therapy usage. Remarkably, the predictive significance of BAR appeared to be more prominent in patients without sepsis (Pinteraction = 0.019) and less prominent in patients who use renal replacement therapy in the first day after ICU admission (Pinteraction = 0.042).