Climate Impact State Scores
The 13 states in the top 75th percentile classified as high climate impact were as follows: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah. The 13 states in the bottom 25th percentile classified as low climate impact were: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wyoming. The remaining 24 states were categorized as moderate climate impact regions (Figure 1).
Overall Demographics
From 2001-2019, there were 6,728,838 incident cases of climate change-related cancers diagnosed in women. Approximately 8.1% were cutaneous melanoma (N=543,051), 28.3% were lung and bronchus, and 63.6% were breast cancers. Regarding race, 80.1% (N=5,388,750) were non-Hispanic White patients, 9.7% were non-Hispanic Black (N=651,527), 6.1% were Hispanic (N=408,078), 2.9% were Asian (N=196,048), and 1.3% identified as other/unknown (N=84,425). Regarding age, 0.1% of patients were aged 0-19 years (N=5,168), 9.0% were 20-44 years (N=605,397), and 90.9% were aged 45 and above (N=6,118,263). Regarding stage, 52.5% of incident cancers were localized (N=3,535,800), 25.0% were regional (N=1,682,075), 16.7% were distant (N=1,122,529), and 5.8% were unknown (N=388,344).
Of all incident melanoma cases, 92.0% were White (N=499,709), 0.6% were Black (N=3,526), 2.8% were Hispanic (N=15,463), 0.4% were Asian (N=1,975), and 4.1% were other/unknown (N=22,378). Approximately 0.8% were aged 0-19 years (N=4,119), 22.2% were aged 20-44 years (N=120,668), and 77.0% were aged 45 years or older (N=418,175).
Of the lung and bronchus cases, 83.6% were White (N=1,594,939), 9.6% were Black (N=182,632), 3.8% were Hispanic (N=73,022), 2.2% were Asian (N=41,803), and 0.8% were other/unknown (N=15,049). Approximately 0.03% were aged 0-19 years (N=512), 1.7% were aged 20-44 years (N=32,734), and 98.3% were aged 45 years or older (N=1,907,445).
Of breast cancer patients, 77.0% were White (N=3,294,102), 10.9% were Black (N=465,369), 7.5% were Hispanic (N=319,593), 3.6% were Asian (N=152,270), and 1.1% were other/unknown (N=46,998). Approximately 0.01% were aged 0-19 years (N=397), 10.6% were aged 20-44 years (N=451,995), and 89.4% were aged 45 years or older (N=3,825,927).
Cutaneous Melanoma
From 2001-2019, cutaneous melanoma incidence increased by 1.59% per year from 13.87 to 18.23/100,000 (p=0.008). Regions with a high climate impact had greater increases in melanoma incidences compared to lower impact regions, with high, moderate, and low climate impacted states reporting incident increases of 2.82% (p=0.002), 2.37% (p<0.001), and 2.24% (p<0.001), respectively. Regarding stage, localized melanomas in high and moderate impact states respectively increased by 3.34% (p<0.001) and 3.31% (p<0.001) annually, whereas low impact states only increased by 2.21% (p=0.007). See Figure 2 for additional information.
The impact of climate change on cutaneous melanoma varied among different racial groups. White and Hispanic populations had respective annual increases of 2.85% (p<0.001) and 0.89% (p=0.03), while Black and Asian populations had annual decreases of -2.33% (p=0.02) and -2.88% (p=0.02). These decreases were largest in low climate impact for both Black (-2.67%, p=0.02) and Asian (-2.88%; p=0.02) populations. Specifically among the White population, melanoma incidences increased by 2.99% (p=0.001), 2.85% (p<0.001), and 1.80% (p=0.01) in high, moderate, and low climate impact states. See Table 1 for additional information.
Lung and Bronchus
Lung cancer incidence decreased in the United States by -0.73% per year from 54.97 to 48.12/100,000 over the study period (p<0.001). This annual decrease was greater in low climate impact states at -1.34% (p<0.001) and moderate impact states at -1.24% (p=0.004) compared to high impact states at -0.94% (p<0.001). Regarding distant stage disease, incidences had larger decreases among low (AAPC: -1.94%; p<0.001) and moderate impact states (AAPC: -1.86%; p<0.001) than high climate impact regions (AAPC: -1.15%; p=0.01). See Figure 3 for additional information.
While each racial group experienced decreases in incident lung cancer, these decreases were largest among Asian (-1.51%; p=0.02) and Hispanic populations (-2.24%; p<0.001) and lower among White (-0.91%; p<0.001) and Black populations (-0.82%; p=0.004) in high climate impact regions. See Table 1 for additional information.
Breast
From 2001-2019, breast cancer incidence decreased in the United States by -0.12% per year from 131.97 to 129.68/100,000 (p=0.001). Breast cancer incidences annually increased in high and moderate impact states at 0.34% (p=0.008) and 1.31% (p=0.002) but decreased in low impact states at -0.31% (p=0.03) per year. Regarding distant stage breast cancer, increases in incidence were smaller in low impact states at 1.37% (p<0.001) than moderate impact states at 1.99% (p<0.001) and high climate impact regions at 1.96% (p=0.02). See Figure 4 for additional information.
The impact of climate change on breast cancer varied among different racial groups. In high climate impact states, White populations experienced annual decreases of -0.52% (p<0.001) while Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations increased at 2.29% (p=0.001), 2.21% (p=0.003), and 0.90% (p<0.001) respectively. See Table 1 for additional information.
Please see additional information on cutaneous melanoma, lung and bronchus, and breast cancer incidence in Supplemental Table 1 and Supplemental Table 2.