3.1 Identification of T Cell Exhaustion-Related Genes
We first performed differential expression analysis on the TCGA-KIRC cohort using the edgeR package, identifying a total of 4759 differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Analysis of GSE139555 in the TISCH database13 revealed that TEX is associated with T CELL RECEPTOR (Fig. 1A-C). Additionally, research has shown that TEX is related to IL2, IFN-γ, and TNFα pathways 14. Therefore, we obtained enrichment scores for four TEX-related pathways for each sample using GSVA and directly obtained T cell exhaustion enrichment scores from the ImmuCellAI online database. For these DEGs, we used WGCNA to identify key modules most strongly associated with T cell exhaustion progression in the TCGA-KIRC cohort. During the construction of the co-expression network, we observed a soft threshold power β of 7 when the scale-free topology fitting index reached 0.9 (Fig. 1D, E). By merging similar modules, we ultimately obtained 14 color modules and found that the MEgreen group was most significantly associated with T cell exhaustion scores (p < 0.01). Therefore, we selected the MEgreen module as the key module and obtained 253 candidate TEX-related genes (Fig. 1F-H).
3.2 Construction of the TEXScore Predictive Model
We first screened candidate TEX-related genes using univariate COX analysis, obtaining 53 prognosis-related genes (P < 0.01). To exclude co-expressed TEX genes and avoid overfitting, we further screened these genes using LASSO regression analysis, ultimately identifying 16 genes (Fig. 2A, B). Additionally, survival random forest analysis identified 20 genes most related to clinical outcomes (Fig. 2C). Eight genes were identified by both algorithms: RUFY4, NOD2, IL15RA, CXCL13, GBP5, DERL3, SPIB, and SLCO5A1 (Fig. 2D). The model was constructed using the LASSO regression algorithm, calculated as risk score = (0.75578 x RUFY4 exp) + (0.80200 x NOD2 exp) + (0.46737 x IL15RA exp) + (0.24353 x CXCL13 exp) + (-0.83225 x GBP5 exp) + (0.04164 x DERL3 exp) + (0.34617 x SPIB exp) + (1.97911 x SLCO5A1 exp). RUFY4, NOD2, IL15RA, CXCL13, DERL3, SPIB, and SLCO5A1 were significantly positively correlated with the risk score, with SLCO5A1 showing the strongest positive correlation. Conversely, GBP5 was significantly negatively correlated with the risk score. To demonstrate the model's stability and reliable generalization, we used the caret R package to split the TCGA-KIRC data into training and test cohort. The risk scores for each sample in the training and validation cohorts were calculated using the same risk formula. Based on the optimal risk score cutoff value calculated using surv_cutpoint, patients were divided into high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) subgroups to explore the prognosis differences between HR and LR groups (Fig. 2E). We found that as the risk increased in KIRC patients in both cohorts, patients exhibited a survival disadvantage with reduced OS and increased mortality (Fig. 2F, G). Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant prognosis differences between HR and LR patients in both cohorts, with LR patients having a more pronounced survival advantage (Fig. 2H, I). The time-ROC curve was used as a tool to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival times, with the training cohort's AUCs being 0.75, 0.70, and 0.74, respectively. The test cohort's AUCs were 0.60, 0.64, and 0.66, respectively (Fig. 2J, K). This indicates the model has excellent predictive performance.
3.3 Creation of a TEX Feature-Based Nomogram Incorporating Clinical Characteristics
To validate the reliability and clinical value of the TEX-based biological feature as a prognostic predictor, we compared the risk score of each KIRC patient with clinical indicators (age, gender, stage) and observed the correlation between each factor and patient prognosis through univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. The results showed that stage and risk score (P < 0.001) were significant prognostic factors in univariate Cox analysis (Fig. 3A). Multivariate Cox analysis also indicated that stage and risk score (P < 0.001) were significant prognostic factors (Fig. 3B). Therefore, the TEX feature-based risk score can serve as an independent prognostic factor related to KIRC patient prognosis. To quantitatively predict patient prognosis and provide information for clinical decision-making, we integrated the risk score and clinical indicators to construct a nomogram as a tool to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probabilities (Fig. 3C). Calibration analysis showed that the OS prediction curves for 1, 3, and 5 years were highly similar to the ideal 45-degree calibration line, indicating excellent stability of the nomogram (Fig. 3D). Subsequently, DCA showed that the nomogram and risk score produced greater net benefits and predictive benefits, indicating that the model's risk score and nomogram could serve as major decision-making factors (Fig. 3E).
3.4 Functional Enrichment Analysis Between HR and LR Groups
We performed functional enrichment analysis between HR and LR groups in the training set data. GO analysis results included Cellular Component (CC), Molecular Function (MF), and Biological Process (BP) (Fig. 4A). We further explored BP and found that pathways related to immunity, such as regulation of T cell activation, humoral immune response, fatty acid transport, positive regulation of T cell migration, and lymphocyte chemotaxis, were significantly enriched (Fig. 4B). KEGG analysis results showed that pathways such as PPAR signaling pathway, Glutathione metabolism, ECM-receptor interaction, and TCA cycle were downregulated in the HR group (Fig. 4C), while pathways such as TNF signaling pathway, TGF-beta signaling pathway, PI3K-Akt signaling pathway, NF-kappa B signaling pathway, JAK-STAT signaling pathway, IL-17 signaling pathway, HIF-1 signaling pathway, GABAergic synapse, Cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, and Chemokine signaling pathway were upregulated in the HR group (Fig. 4D). These pathways are inolved in tumor growth, migration, and tumor immunity, which may reveal the potential pathways through which TEX exerts its effects. GSEA analysis results also validated the KEGG results (Fig. 4E).
3.5 TEX Risk Score Predicts Immune Cell Infiltration
To further investigate the role of TEX features in the KIRC tumor immune microenvironment, we quantified immune cell infiltration between LR and HR groups in the training set using the CIBERSORT script, generating a heatmap of patients ranked from lowest to highest risk scores, showing the infiltration level corresponding to each immune cell (Fig. 5A). We found that regulatory T cells, CD8 + T cells, and follicular helper T cells were highly infiltrated in the HR group, while resting mast cells, M2 macrophages, naive B cells, resting NK cells, and resting dendritic cells were lowly infiltrated in the HR group (Fig. 5B). We further validated these findings using test set data and found that M0 macrophages and plasma cells were highly infiltrated in the HR group of the test set (Fig. 5C). Using the ssgsea method, we quantified immune cell infiltration in the training set patients and visualized the relationship between risk scores and tumor immune cells (Fig. 5D). We also compared TEX levels between LR and HR groups in the training set using TEX data calculated from the ImmuCellAI in the TCGA KIRC patients, finding higher TEX levels in the HR group (Fig. 5E). This result may explain why, despite high CD8 + T cell infiltration in the HR group, HR patients had worse prognoses. Finally, we analyzed tumor immune subtypes in the training set patients using TCGA tumor immune subtype data from the ImmuneSubtypeClassifier package15, finding that the main subtypes in both high-risk and low-risk groups were C3, but the HR group had significantly more C1, C2, and C6 subtypes than the LR group(Fig. 5F). C1 (Wound Healing) had elevated expression of angiogenic genes and a high proliferation rate. C2 (IFN-γ Dominant) had the highest M1/M2 macrophage polarization, a strong CD8 signal, and, together with C6, the greatest TCR diversity. C3 (Inflammatory) is characterized by increased expression of Th17 and Th1 genes, with low to moderate tumor cell proliferation. C6 (TGF-β Dominant) shows the highest TGF‐β signature and high lymphocytic infiltration with well-distributed Type I and Type II T cells. The C5 and C6 immune subtypes in tumors have worse prognoses than the C3 immune subtypes, consistent with the prognosis of high- and low-risk KIRC patients16. In Thorsson, V. et al.'s study, C1, C2, and C6 were associated with poorer OS in KIRC patients, while C3 was associated with better OS. These results may explain the poorer prognosis of HR patients 16.
3.6 Prediction and Validation of Immunotherapy Efficacy
Given the immense potential of TEX in immunotherapy, we mapped the expression levels of common immune checkpoints between LR and HR populations17, finding differential expression of several immune checkpoints between the two groups (Fig. 6A, B). Specifically, targets commonly used in KIRC immunotherapy, such as PDCD1, LAG3, CTLA4, TIGIT, CD28, and CD276, were highly expressed in the HR group (Fig. 6C, D). To test the potential of TEX features in predicting the efficacy of immunotherapy in a real immunotherapy cohort, we analyzed immunotherapy data collected in the IMvigor210CoreBiologies package18, finding that patients with lower risks had better prognoses (Fig. 6E). Patients responding to immunotherapy had lower risk scores (Fig. 6F, G), and the overall response rate in the LR group was higher than in the HR group (Fig. 6H). These results indicate that the TEX risk score is effective in predicting the efficacy of immunotherapy and the prognosis of patients undergoing immunotherapy.
3.7 Single-Cell Sequencing Analysis and Real-Time Quantitative PCR
We separately analyzed the relationship between key genes in the risk model, tumor prognosis, and TEX. We found that the key gene DERL3 is related to the prognosis of KIRC patients (Fig. 7A) and the TEX score of KIRC patients (Fig. 7B). To further explore potential therapeutic target cell interactions for TEX, 10 cell subtypes (ccrcc, Marco, CD8 + T cell, Renal tube, yT2c, endo, fibro, B cell, Tfh, epi) were identified in the single-cell sequencing dataset (Fig. 7C). We found that DERL3 is most highly expressed in B cells (Fig. 7D, E), which was also validated by the GSE111360 dataset in the TISCH database (Fig. 7F-H). This may suggest that DERL3 influences TEX through B cells and could be a potential therapeutic target. Additionally, we detected DERL3 mRNA levels in normal and tumor cell lines. The results showed that the mRNA expression level of DERL3 in 786-O is much higher than in HK-2 (Fig. 7I). Therefore, we believe that the abnormal expression of DERL3 may promote the proliferation and deterioration of KIRC.