1. Findings in children
1.1 Non-severe exacerbation
A DMA suggested that regular ICS significantly reduced non-severe exacerbations compared with LTRA, with a RR (95%CI) of 0.63 (0.49, 0.82), but not relative to AN-ICS, with a RR (95%CI) of 0.83 (0.61, 1.12), (Fig. 4.1 in eAppendix 4).
Six RCTs [35 − 40] involving 2,716 patients were included in a NMA of interventions, including AN-SABA, AN-ICS, regular ICS, and LTRA (Fig. 2A). Compared with AN-SABA, regular ICS, and LTRA were significantly better in preventing non-severe exacerbations, with RRs (95%CI) of 0.61 (0.48, 0.78), and 0.76 (0.58, 0.99), respectively, while AN-ICS was similar, with a RR (95%CI) of 0.74 (0.53, 1.02), but did not reach significance (Table 1). Ranking by SUCRA indicated that regular ICS had the highest probability of lowering the risk of non-severe exacerbations, followed by AN-ICS, LTRA, and AN-SABA (Table 4.1 in eAppendix 4). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 0.5, p-value = 0.919). The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed no asymmetry (Egger’s test p-value = 0.272).
1.2% predicted FEV1
A DMA showed that regular ICS increased FEV1 to a greater extent than AN-SABA, but similar to AN-ICS, with USMDs (95%CI) of 4.30 (0.35, 8.25), and 1.51 (-0.34, 3.37), respectively (Fig. 4.2 in Appendix 4).
Eight RCTs [36 − 38, 41 − 44] involving 3,937 patients were included in a NMA of interventions that included AN-SABA, AN-ICS, regular ICS, LTRA, and regular ICS/SABA (Fig. 2B). Regular ICS resulted in higher FEV1 compared to AN-SABA, with an USMD (95%CI) of 4.12 (0.74, 7.50), but did not differ significantly from AN-ICS, LTRA, or regular ICS/SABA (Table 2). Ranking by SUCRA indicated that regular ICS had the highest probability of increasing FEV1, followed by regular ICS/SABA, AN-ICS, LTRA, and AN-SABA (Table 4.2 in eAppendix 4). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 0.35, p-value = 0.839).
The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed asymmetry (Fig. 4.3 in eAppendix 4), based on the comparisons between regular ICS vs. AN-SABA [42], and regular ICS vs. AN-ICS [36] for the patients that had a mean baseline FEV1 < 90%predicted in the former, and a higher proportion of asthma step 1 and 2 patients with prior ICS use in the latter. A contour-enhanced funnel plot suggested that the asymmetry was attributable to heterogeneity in the baseline FEV1 and asthma step in patients included. Sensitivity analysis that included the exclusion of one of the two RCTs at a time produced rank orders similar to the main analysis.
1.3 Non-severe adverse events
Five RCTs [35, 37, 39, 40, 45] involving 1,649 patients were included in a NMA of the following interventions: AN-SABA, AN-ICS, regular ICS, and LTRA (Fig. 2C). No differences between ICS, LTRA, and AN-SABA were noted (Table 1). The probability of the lowest risk of AE was with AN-ICS, followed by regular ICS, AN-SABA, and LTRA (Table 4.3 in eAppendix 4). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 1.83, p-value = 0.401). The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed no asymmetry (Egger’s test p-value = 0.127).
2. Findings in adolescents/adults
2.1 Non-severe exacerbation
A DMA found that regular ICS significantly reduced non-severe exacerbations, with a RR (95%CI) of 0.44 (0.32, 0.61) relative to AN-SABA, but not relative to LTRA or regular ICS/LABA, with RRs (95%CI) of 1.18 (0.82, 1.70), and 0.81 (0.40, 1.62), respectively (Fig. 5.1 in eAppendix 5).
Eight RCTs [9, 12, 46 − 51] and one unpublished RCT (NCT1316380) involving 6,421 patients were included in a NMA of the following interventions: AN-SABA, regular ICS, LTRA, AN-ICS/FABA, regular ICS/LAB, and tiotropium (Fig. 3A). The ICS-containing regimens, including ICS alone, AN-ICS/FABA, and regular ICS/LABA, were superior to AN-SABA, with RRs (95%CI) of 0.50 (0.33, 0.76), 0.46 (0.28, 0.75), and 0.41 (0.24, 0.71), respectively (Table 1). Tiotropium outperformed AN-SABA in terms of non-severe exacerbations, with a RR (95%CI) of 0.44 (0.21, 0.94) (Table 1). The ICS-containing regimens and tiotropium showed no significant differences. Ranking by SUCRA indicated that regular ICS/LABA had the highest probability of lowering the risk of non-severe exacerbations, followed by tiotropium, AN-ICS/FABA, regular ICS, LTRA, and AN-SABA (Table 5.1 in eAppendix 5). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 9.82, p-value = 0.199). The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed no asymmetry (Egger’s test p-value = 0.690).
2.2 Severe exacerbation
A DMA suggested that regular ICS significantly reduced severe exacerbations when compared with AN-SABA, with a RR (95%CI) of 0.61 (0.47, 0.80); AN-ICS/FABA and regular ICS/LABA were superior to ICS alone, with RRs (95%CI) of 0.74 (0.56, 0.98), and 0.65 (0.50, 0.84), respectively (Fig. 5.2 in e Appendix 5). Subgroup analyses based on baseline FEV1 and ACQ-5 are presented in Fig. 5.3 and Fig. 5.4 in eAppendix 5.
Thirteen RCTs [8 − 11, 49, 50, 52 − 58], and two unpublished RCTs (NCT1316380 and NCT455923) involving 27,828 patients were included in a NMA for the following interventions: AN-SABA, regular ICS, AN-ICS/FABA, regular ICS/LABA, and tiotropium. (Fig. 3B) The ICS-containing regimens, including ICS alone, AN-ICS/FABA, and regular ICS/LABA, were less likely to lead to severe exacerbations compared to AN-SABA, with RRs (95%CI) of 0.58 (0.46, 0.73), 0.42 (0.30, 0.58), and 0.39 (0.27, 0.56), respectively. Notably, tiotropium was not superior to AN-SABA in terms of reducing severe exacerbation risk, with a RR (95%CI) of 0.51 (0.13, 1.91) (Table 1). Compared with regular ICS, AN-ICS/FABA and regular ICS/LABA were superior, while AN-ICS/FABA and regular ICS/LABA were similar to each other. According to the SUCRA, regular ICS/LABA had the highest probability of reducing severe exacerbation risk, followed by AN-ICS/FABA, tiotropium, regular ICS, and AN-SABA (Table 5.2 in eAppendix 5). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 3.89, p-value = 0.793).
The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed asymmetry associated with two treatment comparisons, AN-ICS/SABA vs. AN-SABA and AN-ICS/SABA vs. regular ICS, from one RCT [49], (Fig. 5.5 in eAppendix 5). A contour-enhanced funnel plot suggested the asymmetry was attributable to heterogeneity within the RCT which enrolled patients who had achieved asthma control following low-dose ICS prescription during the run-in period. Sensitivity analysis that excluded this RCT produced in a similar rank order to the main analysis.
2.2.3 Asthma symptoms
A DMA indicated that significant symptom reduction was associated with regular ICS compared to AN-SABA, with a SMD (95%CI) of -0.44 (-0.68, -0.21), but not relative to LTRA, with a SMD (95%CI) of -0.83 (-2.17, 0.51). Treatment with AN-ICS/FABA and regular ICS resulted in a similar change in ACQ-5 score, with an USMD (95%CI) of 0.08 (0, 0.17), (Fig. 5.6 in eAppendix 5).
Eleven RCTs [47, 49, 51, 52, 56, 58 − 63] involving 8,392 patients were included in a NMA of the following interventions: AN-SABA, regular ICS, LTRA, AN-ICS/FABA, and regular ICS/LABA (Fig. 3C). All interventions were similar in terms of post-treatment asthma symptoms (Table 2). According to the SUCRA, the highest probability for symptom reduction was associated with LTRA, followed by AN-ICS/FABA, regular ICS/LABA, regular ICS, and AN-SABA (Table 5.3 in eAppendix 5). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 3.17, p-value = 0.869).
The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed asymmetry associated with the comparison of regular ICS vs. LTRA in a single RCT [63], (Fig. 5.7 in eAppendix 5). A contour-enhanced funnel plot suggested that the asymmetry was attributable to the heterogeneity within the RCT that included patients with a very high mean baseline sputum eosinophil of 13%. A sensitivity analysis that excluded this RCT resulted in a different rank order from the main analysis with AN-ICS/FABA becoming top-ranked, followed by regular ICS/LABA, regular ICS, LTRA, and AN-SABA (Table 5.4 in eAppendix 5).
2.2.4%predicted FEV1
A DMA suggested that regular ICS significantly increased %predicted FEV1 relative to AN-SABA and LTRA, with USMDs (95%CI) of 3.62 (2.10, 5.14), and 3.96 (0.30, 7.61), respectively (Fig. 5.8 in eAppendix 5). AN-ICS/FABA significantly increased %predicted FEV1 more than AN-SABA, with an USMD (95%CI) of 3.70 (2.96, 4.44), albeit this did not differ significantly from regular ICS (Fig. 5.9 in eAppendix 5). Results from the subgroup analyses according to the heterogeneity in asthma step and ICS use at baseline are shown in Fig. 5.10 and Fig. 5.11 in eAppendix 5.
Thirteen RCTs [9, 47 − 49, 51, 53, 54, 57, 59 − 61, 64, 65] involving 11,676 patients were included in a NMA of interventions that included AN-SABA, regular ICS, LTRA, AN-ICS/FABA, and regular ICS/LABA (Fig. 3D). ICS-containing regimens were superior to AN-SABA for increasing FEV1 (Table 2). Compared with LTRA, regular ICS and AN-ICS/FABA were better in terms of FEV1. Ranking by SUCRA suggested that AN-ICS/FABA had the highest probability of increasing FEV1, followed by regular ICS, regular ICS/LABA, LTRA, and AN-SABA (Table 5.5 in eAppendix 5). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 4.35, p-value = 0.887).
The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed asymmetry, due to the comparisons between regular ICS vs. AN-SABA [57], and regular ICS vs. regular ICS/LABA [65], (Fig. 5.12 in eAppendix 5). Contour-enhanced funnel plots suggested that the asymmetry was attributable to heterogeneity in the differences in asthma step and ICS use at baseline, respectively. After excluding each RCT one at a time in a sensitivity analysis, the rank orders remained similar to the main analysis.
2.2.5 Asthma-specific quality-of-life
A DMA suggested that LTRA was associated with a significantly worse AQLQ score compared to regular ICS, with an USMD (95%CI) of -0.22 (-0.34, -0.11), (Fig. 5.13 in eAppendix 5). Although regular ICS and AN-SABA were similar, with an USMD (95%CI) of -0.13 (-0.30, 0.03), variation in baseline age and %predicted FEV1 was present. Use of regular ICS in patients aged < 35 years or who had baseline FEV1 ≥ 90% predicted did not lead to improved QoL compared to AN-SABA in a subgroup analysis (Fig. 5.14 and Fig. 5.15 in eAppendix 5).
Five RCTs [47, 48, 51, 56, 64] involving 2,630 patients were included in a NMA of the following interventions: AN-SABA, regular ICS, LTRA, and regular ICS/LABA (Fig. 3E). Treatment with regular ICS was associated with significantly better QoL than AN-SABA and LTRA. Regular ICS ranked best for QoL, followed by regular ICS/LABA, AN-SABA, and LTRA (Appendix 5: Table 5.6). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 3.92, p-value = 0.270).
The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed asymmetry, due to the comparison of regular ICS vs. AN-SABA from a single RCT [64] that included only asthma step 1 patients (Fig. 5.16 in eAppendix 5). A contour-enhanced funnel plot suggested missing studies in the non-significant area contributing to potential publication bias. Significant Egger’s test suggested there was a small study effect (p-value = 0.023). Excluding this study in a sensitivity analysis produced a similar rank order to the main analysis.
2.2.6 Severe adverse events
Eight RCTs [8 − 11, 49, 52, 54, 61] involving 27,219 patients were included in a NMA of the following interventions: AN-SABA, regular ICS, AN-ICS/FABA, and regular ICS/LABA (Fig. 3F). Regular ICS was associated with a significantly lower risk of SAE than AN-SABA, with a RR (95% CI) of 0.65 (0.45, 0.94). The lowest risk of SAE was with regular ICS/LABA, followed by regular ICS, AN-ICS/FABA, and AN-SABA (Table 5.6 in eAppendix 5). There was no evidence of inconsistency in the network (chi-square = 3.06, p-value = 0.801). The comparison-adjusted funnel plot showed no asymmetry (Egger’s test p-value = 0.209). A DMA result is presented in Fig. 5.17 in eAppendix 5.
The ratings of confidences in NMA between each treatment comparison are presented in eAppendix 7.