A total of 9,238 blood specimens were collected from healthy individuals from 2017 to 2023. The analysis of these specimens revealed that 744 cases tested positive for anti-PT IgG antibodies, yielding a mean positive rate of 8.05% (95% CI: 7.50%~8.60%). Within this positive group, 246 cases were identified as indicating acute or recent pertussis infections, corresponding to a mean infection rate of 2.66% (95% CI: 2.33%~2.99%). The majority of specimens, 8,494 in total, yielded negative results for anti-PT IgG concentration, representing 91.95% of the sample population (95% CI: 91.40%~92.50%). Additionally, 4,509 specimens had anti-PT IgG concentrations below the lower detection limit of the assay, constituting 48.81% of the total specimens collected (95% CI: 47.79%~49.83%) (Table 1).
Time correlation
The analysis of anti-PT IgG antibody positivity rates and recent infection rates revealed that both metrics reached their peak in 2019, with a positivity rate of 10.70% (95% CI: 9.19%~12.21%) and a recent infection rate of 4.17% (95% CI: 3.19%~5.15%). Conversely, the lowest rates were observed in 2020, with a positivity rate of 6.32% (95% CI: 4.98%~7.66%) and a recent infection rate of 1.26% (95% CI: 0.65%~1.87%), with significant differences in both rates across between years (χ2 = 23.909, P < 0.001; χ2 = 31.566, P < 0.001) (Table 1).
Between 2017 and 2023, a total of 155,979 cases of pertussis were reported in China, with reported incidence rate (per 100,000, the same below) of 0.75 (10,390 cases), 1.59 (22,057 cases), 2.15 (30,027 cases), 0.32 (4,475 cases), 0.68 (9,611 cases), 2.71 (38,295 cases), and 2.92 (41124 cases) for each respective year. At the same period, 23,940 cases were reported in Shandong Province, representing 15.35% of the national level. The reported incidence rates ranged from 0.51 to 5.68, with specific rates of 3.75 (3,729 cases), 5.68 (5,770 cases), 5.04 (5,063 cases), 0.51 (516 cases), 0.55 (563 cases), 5.18 (5,263 cases), and 2.99 (3,036 cases) for each year. The recent infection rate of pertussis among healthy populations in Shandong Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend and showed a very strong linear correlation with the reported incidence rate of pertussis in Shandong Province (r = 0.821, P = 0.023) for the corresponding year. Additionally, there was a strong linear correlation with the reported incidence rate of pertussis across China (r = 0.750, P = 0.052) (Table 1, Fig. 1).
Population distribution
The survey subjects, spanning 2 months to 81 years of age, were categorized into age groups, each containing a range of 1,407 to 1,643 individuals. The lowest antibody positivity rate was observed in 3 ~ 5 years old group at 5.40% (95% CI: 4.28–6.52%), followed by the 6 ~ 12 years old group with a positivity rate of 7.00% (95% CI: 5.77–8.23%). The highest positivity rate was found in the under 3 years old age group, at 11.46% (95% CI: 9.87%~13.05%), followed by the 17 ~ 19 years old group at 8.67% (95% CI: 7.20%~10.14%). The positivity rates for the 13 ~ 16 years old and ≥ 20 years old age groups were 8.47% (95% CI: 7.07%~9.87%) and 7.53% (95% CI: 6.22%~8.84%), respectively. Significant differences in antibody positivity rates were noted among all age groups (χ2 = 43.098, P < 0.001). Among the recent infected individuals, the infection rate in the under 3 years old age group was the highest at 4.10% (95% CI: 3.11%~5.09%), while the 3 ~ 5 years old and 6 ~ 12 years old groups had relatively lower infection rates of 1.72% (95% CI: 1.08%~2.36%) and 1.70% (95% CI: 1.07%~2.33%), respectively. A significant difference in recent infection rates was observed between age groups (χ2 = 26.214, P < 0.001) (Table 1).
The reported incidence rate of pertussis in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend with age over the period from 2017 to 2023. The average reported incidence rates of pertussis in the age groups < 3, 3 ~ 5, 6 ~ 12, 13 ~ 16, 17 ~ 19, and ≥ 20 years were 56.89, 16.90, 7.96, 0.42, 0.05, and 0.09 from 2017 to 2023, respectively. These rates showed an extremely weak correlation with the recent infection rates surveyed among healthy subjects (r = 0.086, P = 0.872) (Table 2).
The ratios for male/female were 1.05:1 (4,742:4,496), with antibody positivity rates and recent infection rates (male/female) of 8.22% (95% CI: 7.44%~9.00%) / 7.87% (95% CI: 7.08%~8.66%), 2.70% (95% CI: 2.24%~3.16%) / 2.62% (95% CI: 2.15%~3.09%), respectively. No significant differences were found between the male and female groups for either antibody positivity rates (χ2 = 0.383, P = 0.536; χ2 = 0.050, P = 0.824) (Table 1).
Regional distribution
The number of survey subjects in each region ranges from 2,734 to 3,543, with the lowest antibody positivity rate observed in the eastern region (7.21%, 95% CI: 6.24–8.18%), and relatively high in the central region (9.46%, 95% CI: 8.41–10.51%). There was a statistically significant difference in antibody positivity rates between regions (χ2 = 11.804, P = 0.003). The recent infection rates in the eastern, central and western populations were 2.30% (95% CI: 1.74–2.86%), 3.04% (95% CI: 2.42–3.66%), and 2.62% (95% CI: 2.04–3.20%), respectively, and the difference in recent infection rates between the regions was not statistically significant (χ2 = 2.996, P = 0.224).
From 2017 to 2023, the recent infection rate of pertussis among healthy populations in all regions of Shandong Province displayed a fluctuating upward trend. When compared to the reported incidence rates of pertussis in each region, correlations were observed between the two metrics. Specifically, the correlation coefficients were as follows: eastern region (r = 0.487, P = 0.268), central region (r = 0.500, P = 0.253), and western region (r = 0.786, P = 0.036). These correlations were categorized as medium or strong, indicating a linear relationship between the recent infection rate and the reported incidence rate in each respective region (Table 3).
Estimated infection rate of pertussis
From 2017 to 2023, among the 7,702 individuals aged 3 years and older, the recent infection rate of pertussis was 2.38% (95% CI: 2.04%~2.72%) (183 individuals). Utilizing the known attenuation time of antibodies concentration after pertussis infection and the detection threshold of assay, the estimated infection rate (/100,000, the same below) was 14,807 (95% CI: 14,014 ~ 15,601). The estimated infection rates for each year showed significant variability, with the highest rate record in 2019 (24,449, 95% CI: 22,157 ~ 26,740) and the lowest in 2020 (5,257, 95% CI: 3,918 ~ 6,596). The estimated infection rates of pertussis in each year were found to be approximately 4,766.40 ~ 31,633.33 times higher than the reported incidence rates, with an average multiplier of 9,312.58 times the reported incidence rate (Table 4).
In examining the age distribution of the estimated infection rates, it was observed an upward trend with age, The estimated infection rates for the 3 to 5 years old group and the 6 to 12 years old group were 10,697 (95% CI: 9,170 ~ 12,225) and 10,621 (95% CI: 9,131 ~ 12,111), respectively. These rates were relatively lower compared to the infection rates observed in older age groups. The infection rate began to rise significantly from 12 years old, with the highest estimated infection rate recorded in the ≥ 20 years old group, at 19,475 (95% CI: 17,515 ~ 21,435). The disparity between estimated infection rate and reported incidence was the most pronounced in the older age group. The exceed incidence was 29,2340.00-fold for the 17 ~ 19 years old group and 216,388.89-fold for the ≥ 20 years old group (Table 4).
Regarding the regional distribution, the central region exhibited the highest estimated infection rate with 18,412 (95% CI: 16,874 ~ 19,951). Conversely, the eastern region exhibited the lowest estimated infection rate, at 11,356 (95% CI: 10,060 ~ 12,651). The largest difference between estimated infection rate and the reported incidence was observed in the eastern region with a ratio of 31,544.44-fold (Table 4).