The analytic cohort included 1309 patients (median 9 years, interquartile range 5-13, range 1-29) with T-ALL treated on the Children’s Oncology Group (COG) clinical trial AALL0434. The distribution of categorical genomically-defined ancestry: 58% European, 15% Admixed American, 11% African, 3% East Asian, 2% South Asian, and 12% Other. Clinical features including central nervous system (CNS) status, diagnostic white blood cell count (WBC), and end induction measurable residual disease (MRD) were similar across ancestries (Table 1). Patients of African and Admixed American ancestry were more likely to have Medicaid-only insurance as compared with patients of European ancestry (49.7%, 46.9%, 20.3%, respectively). Patients of African ancestry were more likely to harbor ETP and near-ETP immunophenotype T-ALL as compared with patients of European ancestry (11.9% vs. 7.4%).
Association of genetic ancestry with T-ALL subtype and pathway alterations
Subtype
Overall, T-ALL genomic subtypes varied across genetic ancestries (P<0.001, Figure 1A). The newly identified high-risk ETP-like subtype, as well as MLLT10 and BCL11B-activated subtypes accounted for greater proportion of T-ALL cases among CAYA of African ancestry as compared with European ancestry (ETP-like OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.45-4.28 Table 2; 29.3% vs 14.5% Table S1). Within ETP-like subtype, there was also variation in subtype classifying drivers by ancestry (Extended Data Fig 1). Patients of South Asian and East Asian ancestry had notable differences in predominant subtypes compared with European ancestry, but interpretation was limited given small numbers. Continuous ancestry analyses mirrored associations in primary findings (Extended Data Table 1). There were also differences in driver gene alterations, with TLX3 and TLX1 being more common drivers in European, and MLLT10 and MED12 more common in patients of African ancestry (Figure 1B).
Pathways
African ancestry was associated with decreased odds of expression of Cell cycle (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40-0.87), Notch (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41-0.87) and Ribosome pathway alterations (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.61), and increased odds of Ras pathway alteration (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.07-2.58; Table 2, Table S2) as compared to European ancestry. Similar results were observed with continuous ancestry analyses (Extended Data Table 2).
Association of genetic ancestry with survival outcomes
Kaplan-Meier estimates of 5-year overall survival (OS) were 94.7% (95% CI 90.3-97.1), 89.8% (95% CI 83.4-93.8), and 88.7% (95% CI 86.2-90.8) for patients of Admixed American, African, and European ancestry, respectively (Figure 2). Individuals of Admixed American ancestry had significantly superior OS as compared with European (P=0.02) whereas no significant difference was observed between African and European ancestry (P=0.74). Event free survival (EFS) was superior among patients of Admixed American ancestry as compared with European ancestry but did not reach statistical significance (5-year EFS 88.8% vs 81.4%, P=0.09). Results were confirmed in multivariable Cox models, adjusting for covariates, subtype, and pathway alterations, with Admixed American ancestry having a lower hazard as compared with European ancestry (adjusted HR OS=0.51, 95% CI 0.28-0.95; adjusted HR EFS 0.64, 95% CI 0.41-0.98; Extended Data Table 3, Extended Data Table 4). Types of events did not differ between ancestral groups (Table S3).
Genomic biomarkers by genetic ancestry
NOTCH pathway
NOTCH is the most commonly dysregulated pathway in T-ALL with alterations identified in this cohort in NOTCH1 (n=903, 78%), FBXW7 (n=285, 22%), ZMIZ1 (n=7, 1%). Overall, patients with NOTCH pathway alterations experienced significantly superior OS/EFS as compared to those without; however, when stratified by ancestry NOTCH alteration conferred favorable prognosis for patients of European and Admixed American ancestry but not for patients of African ancestry (Figure 3, left panel). Furthermore, we observed differential prognostic value for NOTCH1 and FBXW7 by ancestry (Extended Data Fig 5): NOTCH1 conferred favorable prognosis for patients of European and Admixed American ancestry but not for patients of African ancestry; FBXW7 conferred favorable prognosis for patients of Admixed American ancestry only. In terms of frequency, patients of African ancestry were less likely to harbor alterations in NOTCH pathway overall, with lower frequency of NOTCH1 mutations and similar frequency of FBXW7 mutations as compared with patients of European and Admixed American ancestry (Table S4).
We recently observed that different types of NOTCH1 alterations have differential prognostic impact—intragenic deletion and intronic SNV/indel associated with negative outcomes; indel, SNV, and stop/frameshift/splice mutations associated with favorable outcomes.14 Herein we observed a greater proportion of deleterious NOTCH1 alterations among patients of African ancestry as compared with European (13% vs 6% P= 0.04). Furthermore,NOTCH1 alterations that were favorable in the overall cohort overall and among patients of European ancestry did not confer similarly favorable EFS among patients of African ancestry (Extended Data Fig 2) – in part explaining the non-prognostic value of NOTCH1 alterations in this group. Finally, in a comparison of NOTCH1 and FBXW7 coding mutation type (frameshift, missense, nonsense), we observed a greater proportion of frameshift and smaller proportion of missense mutations in NOTCH1 among patients of African ancestry as compared with European and Admixed American (frameshift 54%, 31%, 33%, respectively) with similar proportions of FBXW7 coding mutations (Extended Data Fig 3, Extended Data Fig 4).
Group for Research on Adult Lymphoblastic Leukemia (GRAALL) risk classifier
Studies by GRAALL cooperative group identified a prognostic risk classifier, with mutations in NOTCH1/FBXW7 in the absence of NRAS/KRAS or PTEN mutations portending favorable outcomes, and conversely, absence of NOTCH1/FBXW7 and presence of NRAS/KRAS/PTEN alterations distinguishing patients with poor outcomes.15,16 We applied this gene classifier—NOTCH1/FBXW7 (N/F), NRAS/KRAS/PTEN (R/P)—to our cohort and examined its association with survival stratified by genetic ancestry. Among patients of European and Admixed American ancestry, the GRAALL classifier successfully differentiated survival outcomes; however, patients of African ancestry were misclassified (Figure 3, center panel). Examining all genes in this classifier separately, a difference in prognostic value by ancestry was observed for NOTCH1, PTEN and NRAS/KRAS; for example, NRAS/KRAS alterations were significantly deleterious only for individuals of African ancestry (Extended Data Fig 5).
Among altered genes/regions in at least 5% of patients per ancestral group, we further explored prognostic value by genetic ancestry. A difference in prognostic association was observed for 5 of the top 14 most commonly altered genes/regions in T-ALL, including: NOTCH1, PHF6, PTEN, NRAS/KRAS and loss of chromosome 6q. In contrast, there were no differences for CDKN2A, FBXW7, DNM2, LEF1, MYB, MYC, WT1, USP7, IL7R (Figure 4). No single genomic alteration was prognostic across all ancestral groups.
Penalized Cox regression model risk classifier
Our group recently published a novel penalized Cox regression model incorporating clinical variables (MRD, CNS status, WBC), genetic subtype, and specific genomic alterations to risk stratify patients, with resulting 5-year EFS ranging from 65% (highest risk) to 97% (lowest risk).14 Unlike the GRAALL-classifier, this model-based classifier successfully risk stratified all patients, with similar EFS ranges for each risk group across ancestries and as compared with the cohort overall (Figure 3, right panel; All patients P< 0.001, European P<0.001, Admixed American P=0.01, African P=0.02).