Mathematical modeling of CO2 emission reduction of line 107 of bus rapid transit in Tehran (BRT Tajrish Square - Railway Square)

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4902000/v1

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Mathematical modeling of CO₂ emission reduction of line 107 of bus rapid transit in Tehran (BRT Tajrish Square - Railway Square)

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4902000/v1

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In this paper, we examine the possibility of diminishing carbon dioxide (CO₂) discharges from the Tajrish Square - Railway Square rapid bus system (Tehran BRT line 107) by eliminating the Tajrish terminal and substituting it with a conventional station. Decreasing the generation and release of CO₂ is a crucial goal of urban administration and environmental preservation. Rapid buses, being one of the most utilized modes of public transportation in Tehran, generate a significant quantity of CO₂. Consequently, it is crucial to explore measures that can decrease the production and emission of CO₂ from this system. In this research, the main question is what impact removing one of the terminals of Tehran BRT line 107 and replacing it with a regular station will have on reducing the production and emission of CO₂ of this system. Also, this hypothesis is raised that based on it, this action will result in a noticeable reduction in the production and emission of CO₂ of this system. The results of mathematical modeling show that this action leads to a significant reduction in time, fuel and CO₂. By doing this, 2370 minutes in time, 59.25 liters in fuel and 154.168 kilograms of CO₂ emissions will be reduced. Eliminating the Tajrish terminal can lead to improving the performance and reducing the pollution of the Tajrish Sq. - Railway Sq. rapid bus system. By eliminating this terminal, the duration of trips will decrease by 12.56% (one-eighth), diesel consumption by 2.71%, and CO₂ production by 2.71%. This improvement means increasing efficiency, reducing costs and reducing environmental damages. Therefore, it is recommended that this action be performed as soon as possible and its results be investigated on other bus lines.

Air pollution

CO2

BRT

Fuel consumption

Public transport

Tehran

Air pollution is a global challenge and Tehran is no exception^1,2. Studying this issue and providing a solution to control it is necessary. Air pollution due to the presence of suspended particles, chemical compounds and polluting gases will have extensive effects on people’s health and quality of life, even in the modern era^3–5. The researches have shown that air pollution in cities causes skin diseases, respiratory disorders ^6,7, cardiovascular diseases ^8–10, dysfunction of the immune system, spread of infectious diseases and reduction of physical activities^11–13. Research has even been done on its effect on the mutation of the DNA molecule^14,15. In addition, air pollution is also considered as one of the factors of climate change (at the international level)¹⁶. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct thorough research on air pollution in cities and take appropriate measures to reduce or control it actively. Moreover, it is necessary to provide effective solutions to reduce air pollution and examine its economic and social impacts. Therefore, studying in the field of air pollution is of high importance and can be effective in finding suitable solutions to address or control this crisis. Undoubtedly, the results of researchers’ studies are the most fundamental tools to improve the air quality of cities and maintain the health of people in society.

The emission of polluting gases causes climate change¹⁷. Greenhouse gases such as CO₂ increase the rate of global warming. Moreover, airborne pollutant particles have the ability to obstruct or reduce the impact of sun rays and bring about alterations in the course of atmospheric occurrences (like wind, precipitation, etc.) as well as the process of photosynthesis in vegetation. Research examining the influence of air pollution on climate change reveals that this matter holds significant significance in enhancing and preserving the well-being of the natural surroundings and the advancement of the worldwide economy^18–20. Furthermore, air pollution is equally impacted by climate change. The gradual rise in temperatures, shifting patterns of wind, and diminished rainfall contribute to a surge in the quantity of harmful particles in the atmosphere^21,22. To illustrate, the increasing temperatures and disturbance in atmospheric currents generate ideal circumstances for the emergence of pollution clusters, subsequently intensifying the concentration of pollutants within these regions²³. Therefore, climate change creates challenges in controlling and reducing air pollution and shows that developments in the field of climate change should be accompanied by more efforts to reduce air pollutants²⁴.

Cities are the main sources of air pollutants. Industries, vehicles, power plants and even buildings are part of these pollutants. In the industrial sector, various kinds of polluting gases such as O₃, CO, CO₂, NO_X, sulfur compounds and suspended particles are emitted during production processes and cause air pollution^25–27. Cars and trucks that rely on inexpensive and subsidized fossil fuels release harmful gases that contribute to the contamination of the atmosphere^28,29. Furthermore, power stations utilizing fossil fuels such as coal, oil, diesel, and gas emit noxious gases into the surrounding air^30,31. City gas systems that malfunction in buildings are also sources of air pollution^32,33.

Cars have a significant role in creating air pollution in cities^34–36. O₃, CO, CO₂, NO_X, sulfur compounds and suspended particles are produced by burning petroleum derivatives in their engines³⁷. Motorcycles, private cars and public vehicles produce large amounts of polluting and toxic compounds by using fossil fuels^38,39. These gases cause the greenhouse effect and increase the air temperature (locally, nationally and internationally). When these gases combine with water (water vapor), they cause acid rain that changes the soil pH and damages the buildings. Particulate matter (smaller than 2.5 or 10 microns) from burning fossil fuels in cars also causes respiratory problems, skin irritation, eye irritation, and more^40–42. It is expected that by reducing the use of vehicles that consume fossil fuels and promoting the use of modern and standard vehicles (hybrid/electric), the air pollution of cities will decrease and the air quality of cities will improve^43,44.

Statement of the Problem

Public transportation system and buses are recognized as one of the solutions to control the emission of pollutants. But they also affect the air pollution in cities. The type and quality of the fuel used by buses is very important^45,46. Most of the buses use diesel and the technology used in the buses has a very important role in producing particulate matter⁴⁷. Old and worn-out buses may emit more pollutants. Furthermore, urban planning patterns and urban traffic management can be effective in improving the air quality of cities and reducing their air pollution.

The city of Tehran with a population of more than 8 million people is considered one of the most polluted cities in Iran and the world. Vehicles that use fossil fuels are one of the main sources of air pollution in this city³⁴. In this research, the role of public vehicles (buses) in the air pollution of this city was examined.

The cycle of producing pollutant gases in each bus consists of three stages. First, when it is present at the origin terminal. In this stage, although it does not move and has no passengers, its engine stays on while waiting in line to start the service. The second stage is related to the part where the buses enter the service cycle and along the route and travel between the stations, they emit toxic and pollutant compounds. The third stage is when the bus reaches the final station. Then it goes through the same conditions as the first stage until it enters the service again after passing the stages of waiting in line.

Performing administrative tasks such as recording the arrival and departure time of buses to the terminal, recording the time spent from the origin to the destination, recording the number of passengers, checking the technical and safety conditions of the bus and even refueling again are the reasons for stopping at the start and end terminals of each line. Therefore, each bus has to go through the required administrative tasks twice (once at the origin terminal and once at the destination) to cover a specific route between two points and transport passengers.

Research Background

Many researchers have conducted research on public transportation systems and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems. Christele Al-Hadad et al.⁴⁸ discussed the impact of transit-oriented development and its economic effects on real estate. They also reported how much transit-oriented development affects traffic reduction, pollution reduction, fuel consumption reduction, social vitality improvement, quality of life enhancement, and other outcomes.

Mohammad Amir Bashir and colleagues⁴⁹ investigated the impact of BRT lines in the cities of Bogotá in Colombia, Curitiba in Brazil, Johannesburg in South Africa and Ahmedabad in India and found that this system leads to transformation in the value and use of land, population density increase, domestic investment increase and work demand increase around BRT stations. They believe that this system is very useful for developing countries. Moreover, the research results of Rafael Pereira in the cities of Antwerp, Paris, London, and Vienna⁵⁰ and also the results of the research of Pengjun Zhao in the city of Guangzhou⁵¹ indicate that the creation of BRT lines increases the price of land, the density of buildings and the diversity of land use near the stations and has increased accessibility to workplaces, education and city services and has reduced the inequality of accessibility between different areas of the city. They also argue that BRT lines have reduced the use of private cars and increased the use of buses in the city, and thus bring safety and speed while satisfying passengers.

Matthew Carmona⁵² examines the value and quality of place in an article. He analyzes the effects of place on people’s physical and mental health and highlights how place affects people’s social relationships and emphasizes the importance of environment, noise, and security. He measures the effect of the quality of the place on the economy and property value and demonstrates that the quality of the place is closely related to the environment.

Research objective

Because prior to this study, the researchers had not explored the issue of the impact of removing a bus terminal on controlling air pollution, and given the importance of the issue of air pollution and the role of buses in the urban public transportation fleet, the hypothesis was raised that whether removing only one of the terminals could be effective in controlling and reducing CO₂ emissions. How significant would this impact be? Would this improve the performance and service of buses or cause disruption? To answer the questions raised, a case study of the high-speed bus line 107 from Railway to Tajrish, 18.5 km long, with 42 stations and 2 terminals, was selected. In doing so, the impacts of removing the Tajrish terminal and converting it into a regular station (similar to other intermediate stations) were investigated in January 2024.

1. Materials

XMQ6180G model buses are used in this line. The fuel consumption of these buses, considering the optimal operating conditions (specified in the manual), is an average of 35 liters of diesel per 100 kilometers. Also, their fuel consumption in idle mode is 1.5 liters per hour. The technology used in their production conforms to the Euro 3 standard⁵³.

The round-trip length of this bus line is 37 km (18.5 x 2) and it has 42 stations and 2 terminals, and 85 buses with the above specifications are assigned for service on this line. According to field observations, the average stopping time of each bus at each station was estimated to be 30 seconds, and the average stopping time of each bus at the Railway terminal and the Tajrish terminal was 20 minutes and 15 minutes, respectively. Based on the travel time of this route for each bus at different hours of the day, the average bus speed was calculated to be 35 km/h. The bus frequency at the stations of this line was 4 minutes for peak hours and 10.5 minutes for off-peak hours^53,54. Also, based on field observations, the average number of passengers per bus was 56 (during a normal day), and the weight of each passenger was assumed to be 75 kg (4200 kg in total). According to the specifications given in the bus manual, which was published by its manufacturer, the curb weight of each bus is 12,000 kg. According to the results of other researches that are mentioned in the discussion and conclusion section, the sulfur content of the diesel fuel distributed in Tehran is $\:{C}_{14}{H}_{30}+0.1\text{%}S$⁵⁵. Therefore, based on the above information, the amount of pollution of the buses of this line was calculated for a normal day (5:30 to 22:30).

2. Methods

This research has been conducted by a mixed method, field investigation, literature review and mathematical modeling. The quantitative part of the research was obtained by using published data from official sources such as the reports of the Urban Transport Organization, data from the monitoring systems of the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Unit Company, the researcher’s field observations and other sources. These data were used as the basis for mathematical modeling. Textual data, articles, and the results of other researchers’ work were used in the qualitative part of the research.

Microsoft Excel 2019 and SPSS software were used to create tables, images, mathematical calculations and statistical analyses. EndNote software was used to cite sources. Microsoft Word 2019 was also used to write the paper.

According to the frequency of BRT bus movement in Tajrish - Railway, the number of buses that serve 17 hours during a day from 5:30 to 22:30 was calculated.

In order to know the amount of polluting gases produced by this bus line, the time required for a complete round of the route for a bus should be calculated. Then the amount of fuel consumed along the route for a bus should be calculated. Also, the amount of fuel consumed when a bus stops at the terminals should also be specified. So, using this formula, the number of trips made in one day was calculated.

On average, the buses have made 158 complete navigations ($\:Z$) daily from 5:30 to 22:30 (17 hours). That is, 158 trips have been conducted from the Tajrish terminal and 158 trips from the Railway terminal.

$$\:Z=(\frac{60}{a}\times\:h1)+(\frac{60}{b}\times\:h2)=157.5\:(\text{t}\text{r}\text{i}\text{p}\text{)}$$

($\:Z$) The number of complete trips (outbound + return)

($\:a$) The average frequency of bus movement in peak hours is 4 (min)

($\:b$) The average frequency of bus movement in off-peak hours is 10.5 (min)

($\:h1$) The number of peak hours is 6.5 (hour)

($\:h2$) The number of off-peak hours is 10.5 (hour)

The time required for a navigation will be about 84.5 minutes on average ($\:T$). In this way, each bus traveled from the Railway to the Tajrish in 84.5 minutes and returned the same way. During 17 hours after 158 journeys, a total of 40 hours at the Tajrish terminal ($\:{S}_{t}$) and 53 hours at the Railway terminal were stopped without passengers ($\:{S}_{r}$).

$$\:T=(\frac{L}{V}\times\:60)+(N\times\:{t}_{s)}=84.43\:(\text{m}\text{i}\text{n})$$

$$\:{S}_{t}=Z\times\:{T}_{t}=158\:\times\:15=2370\:\left(\text{m}\text{i}\text{n}\right)$$

$$\:{S}_{r}=Z\times\:{T}_{r}=158\times\:20=3160\:\left(\text{m}\text{i}\text{n}\right)$$

($\:T$) The time required for each trip (excluding terminals)

($\:L$) The length of a trip is 37 kilometers

($\:V$) The average speed of each bus is 35 kilometers per hour

($\:N$) The number of stations is 42

($\:{t}_{s}$) The stop time at each station is 30 (Sec)

($\:{S}_{t}$) The total waiting time of buses at the Tajrish terminal is (min)

($\:{S}_{r}$) The total waiting time of buses at the Railway terminal is (min)

($\:{T}_{t}$) The stop time at the Tajrish terminal is 15 (min)

($\:{T}_{r}$) The stop time at the Railway terminal is 20 (min)

To calculate the amount of pollution produced, the amount of fuel consumed must be calculated. Using the formulas below, the amount of fuel consumed was calculated.

In each complete journey, 12.95 liters of fuel while moving ($\:{f}_{1}$) and 0.882 liters of fuel while stopping ($\:{f}_{2}$) was consumed in the terminals. The total fuel consumption during each trip was calculated to be 13.832 liters ($\:f$). 59.25 liters of diesel fuel was consumed when stopping at the Tajrish terminal and 78.21 liters of diesel fuel was consumed when the buses stopped at the Railway terminal.

$\:{f}_{1}=\frac{V\times\:L}{100}=12.95\:\left(Li\right)\:$ & $\:{f}_{2}=\left({t}_{t}\times\:1.5)+({t}_{r}\times\:1.5\right)=0.882\left(\text{Li}\right)$

$$\:f={f}_{1}+{f}_{2}=12.95+0.882=2185.456\:\left(Li\right)$$

$$\:{f}_{2}=\left({t}_{t}\times\:1.5)+({t}_{r}\times\:1.5\right)=0.882\left(\text{Li}\right)\:\{\begin{array}{c}{f}_{t}=Z\times\:{t}_{t}=59.25\:\left(\text{Li}\right)\:Tajrish\:terminal\:\\\:{f}_{r}=Z\times\:{t}_{r}=78.21\:\left(\text{Li}\right)\:Railway\:terminal\end{array}$$

($\:{\text{f}}_{1}$) The average fuel consumption per trip (Li)

($\:{\text{f}}_{2}$) The average fuel consumption in idle mode (Li)

($\:\text{f}$) The total fuel consumed (Li)

($\:{\text{f}}_{\text{t}}$) The total fuel consumed at the Tajrish terminal (Li)

($\:{\text{f}}_{\text{r}}$) The total fuel consumed at the Railway terminal (Li)

If diesel were a pure alkane, then its combustion would be complete. So, the following formula was used to estimate the amount of CO₂ production from diesel burning.

$$\:{C}_{n}{H}_{2n+2}+\frac{3n+1}{2}{O}_{2}\to\:nC{O}_{2}+(n+1){H}_{2}O$$

The mass ratio of CO₂ per liter of diesel is 2.602 kg/L. That is, for every liter of diesel that is consumed, 2.602 kg of CO₂ is produced.

$$\:F=\frac{n\times\:44}{M}\times\:D=2.602\:(\text{k}\text{g}/\text{L}\text{i})$$

($\:F$) The conversion factor of diesel to CO₂ (kg/L)

($\:n$) The number of moles of CO₂: 14

The molar mass of CO₂: 44

($\:M$) The molar mass of diesel: 201.2065

($\:D$) The density of diesel: 0.85

The average fuel consumption was calculated in different stages of bus travel. According to the obtained numbers, the emission of this line can be calculated in different stages. It should be noted that the performance of the engine will affect the emissions of each bus. In this way, the calculations will be as follows:

$$\:{C}_{1}=F{f}_{1}=33.695\left(\text{k}\text{g}\right)\times\:158=5323.952\left(kg\right)$$

$$\:{C}_{2}=F{f}_{2}=2.294\left(kg\right)\times\:158=362.604\left(kg\right)\to\:\:\{\begin{array}{c}{C}_{t}=F{f}_{t}=0.975\left(kg\right)\times\:158=154.168\:\left(\text{k}\text{g}\right)\:Tajrish\:\\\:{C}_{r}=F{f}_{r}=1.287\left(kg\right)\times\:158=203.502\:\left(\text{k}\text{g}\right)\:Railway\end{array}$$

$$\:C=Ff=35.99\left(kg\right)\times\:158=5686.556\left(\text{k}\text{g}\right)$$

($\:{C}_{1}$) The average carbon dioxide produced during the trip (kg)

($\:{C}_{2}$) The average carbon dioxide produced at the terminals (Li)

($\:C$) The amount of CO₂ emitted (g)

For burning 12.95 liters of diesel, about 33.695 kg of CO₂ is produced per trip ($\:{C}_{1}$). The amount of CO₂ emitted from 158 trips is 5323.952 kg. 2.294 kg of CO₂ is produced for 0.882 liters of diesel consumption for a 35-minute stop at the terminals. The total CO₂ produced due to 158 stops at the terminals is 362.604 kg. At the Tajrish terminal, 0.975 kg of CO₂ is produced per 15 minutes stop and by burning 59.25 liters of fuel per 158 stop, 154.168 kg CO₂ and at the Railway terminal, 1.287 kg of CO₂ is released per 20 minutes stop and after 158 stops, 203.502 kg CO₂ is produced due to the burning of 78.21 liters of diesel. After 158 stops of 20 minutes at the Railway terminal, 158 journeys of 37 kilometers from the Railway terminal to the Tajrish terminal, and 158 15-minute stops at the Tajrish terminal, 5686.556 kg of CO₂ is finally produced.

Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (affiliated to Tehran Municipality) was established in 1335 solar hijri (1956) with the aim of facilitating intra-city travel to provide services in the field of public transportation⁵⁶. After about 70 years since the establishment of this company, the number of its lines has increased from 18 to 252 lines, of which 102 lines are active/semi-active and about 150 lines have been deleted, inactive or merged and moved. More than 5,500 buses owned by the public and private sectors are in service, and the public sector owns 2,847 buses with an average age of more than 12.5 years, of which 800 are inactive for repair and updating (due to wear and tear). Buses owned by the public sector are mostly active in Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes. 2700 buses are in service in the private sector with an average age of more than 15 years, most of them operate on normal routes^57–60.

Based on the decisions of Tehran Islamic Council and the standards issued by the Environmental Protection Organization, the sulfur content of the fuel distributed in Iran should not exceed 50 PPM. However, according to the report of the former head of the Environmental Protection Organization, the sulfur content of the diesel distributed in the country is more than 10,000 PPM^61–63. Researchers have reported the sulfur content of the diesel distributed in Tehran as 1000 PPM or higher, which is much higher than the Euro 4 standard^55,64,65.

BRT is a contemporary and effective resolution to enhance and accelerate communal transportation in large urban areas. This system employs unique buses that journey on exclusive paths and at elevated velocities to convey travelers throughout various sectors of the metropolis. The BRT diminishes the duration of travel, curtails fuel consumption and air contamination, while also alleviating congestion and vehicular movement on the roadways. Consequently, it contributes to augmenting the citizens' standard of living.

The bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Tehran started in 1386 solar hijri (2006) with the launch of the first line from Tehran Pars intersection to Azadi terminal. This route was the first BRT line in Iran that connected the west and east of Tehran. Gradually, other lines were added to this system. Tehran’s BRT system is one of the most popular means of public transportation in the capital. Tehran currently has ten BRT lines that cover all 22 districts of the city. These lines are known by the codes 101 to 110 and have 234 stations and 178.5 km of length. They carry about 1.5 million passengers daily.

According to the findings of this research, 158 complete trips per day (outbound + return) are performed on the 107 BRT line of Tehran (equivalent to 5,846 km). After 17 hours of service, the buses of this line consume 2,185.456 liters of diesel per 158 journeys. As a result, 5,686.556 kg of CO₂ is emitted into the air of Tehran city (Table 1).

Table 1

Performance and efficiency report of line 107 BRT in terms of time, fuel, pollution

(Source: Research Results)
		Length of travel/trip^*		Diesel Consumption^**		CO₂^***
		Each bus^*	All buses^*	Each bus^**	All buses^**	Each bus^***	All buses^***
1	Total Terminals^a	35	5530	0.882	139.356	2.294	362.6.4
2	Tajrish Terminal	15	2370	0.375	59.25	0.975	154.168
3	Railway Terminal	20	3160	0.495	78.21	1.287	203.502
4	Travel/Trip^b	84.43	13339.94	12.95	2046.1	23.695	5323.952
	Total^c	119.43	18869.94	13.82	2185.456	35.99	5686.556

a- The sum of row 2 and 3 is related to the Tajrish and Railway terminals. b- Only the data related to the trip between the two terminals (excluding the data of the terminals) is included. c- The sum of row 1 and 4 or the sum of row 2, 3 and 4 is calculated. *- The travel/stop time is calculated and reported in minutes (Min.). **- The diesel consumption is calculated and reported in liters (Li.). ***- The amount of CO₂ produced and emitted is calculated and reported in kilograms (Kg).

According to Table 1, by removing the Tajrish terminal (row 2 of Table 1) and replacing it with a regular station, each bus will reduce 15 minutes of stop time. As a result, about 0.375 liters of fuel will be conserved per trip. Therefore, after replacing this terminal with a standard station, 0.975 kilograms of CO₂ will be reduced in each trip. Consequently, at the end of a day (after 17 hours of service − 158 trips) 2370 minutes of time and 59.25 liters of diesel will be conserved and 154.168 kilograms of CO₂ will be avoided from entering the air of Tehran.

By changing the function of this terminal, the travel time of each bus will be reduced and less fuel will be consumed. This will not cause any disruption in the operation of this bus line. Moreover, services will be provided to citizens more quickly and their mobility will be faster. This will enhance the fleet performance and increase the citizens’ tendency to use public transportation. In this way, secondary effects will also occur in reducing air pollution caused by the reduction of private car traffic.

Conflict of interest:

The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.

Supplementary materials

For access to the data, contact the author.

Author contributions:

Farid Rahimi; idea generator, data collector, analyst and author has read the paper and agrees with its publication.

Acknowledgment

and thanks: We appreciate the drivers and passengers who participated in this research.

Financial resources: No financial resources were received.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Mathematical modeling of CO₂ emission reduction of line 107 of bus rapid transit in Tehran (BRT Tajrish Square - Railway Square)

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