The Impact of Temperature on Road Accidents. A Study on Drivers’ Behavior in Sargodha District

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4925016/v1

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The Impact of Temperature on Road Accidents. A Study on Drivers’ Behavior in Sargodha District

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4925016/v1

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Climate change is a global phenomenon with broad consequences. The influence of climate change on road safety emerged as a momentous area of concern. The purpose of the study was to identify the potential relationships to understand how climatic variable (temperature) contribute to variations in road safety leading to road accidents in district Sargodha. To achieve the proposed objectives of the study, data were collected, analyzed and interpreted. Questionnaire was prepared for respondents (drivers). Accordingly, 60 drivers were participated in the study across from the district Sargodha. Generally, 60 participants were selected using convenient sampling technique. The quantitative approach has been used in order to gather and analyze the data using statistical analysis procedures with the help of Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The findings and results obtained from this study mostly showed that extreme hot temperature affects vehicle body and road infrastructure similarly extreme cold temperature cause vehicle skidding ultimately leads to accidents. To encounter these challenges drivers must driving carefully, avoid high speed and meticulous driving is essential during extreme temperatures. Awareness programs and training must be given to the drivers so that they adjust their vehicles and driving habits in accordance with driving guidelines to avoid road accidents.

road safety

temperature

Climate change

road accidents

drivers.

1.1 Background Information:-

Climate change, characterized by shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events, is a global phenomenon with far-reaching consequences. Among its diverse impacts, the influence of climate change on road safety has emerged as a significant area of concern. As the climate undergoes alterations, the potential repercussions on road infrastructure, driving conditions, drivers’ behavior and overall safety parameters become increasingly evident. Understanding the intricate interplay between climatic variables and road accidents is essential for developing adaptive strategies to mitigate risks and enhance resilience within transportation systems.

Many studies have explored that climate change has several adverse effects on road condition, vehicles’ maintenance and drivers’ behavior. So climate changes are an important factor in road accidents. Road accident becomes a leading cause of death.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), worldwide road traffic accidents cause approximately 1.35 million deaths annually and cost $518 billion USD. (Al-Reesi, Ganguly, Al-Adaw, & Laflamm, 2013) Without suitable improvement strategies, road traffic injuries are expected to become the fifth leading cause of death by 2030. Thus, it is necessary to analyses the influential factors affecting traffic accidents in order to improve the traffic safety. There are a large number of factors affecting road traffic accidents such as economy, climate, and traffic safety laws. (Zou, Zhang, & Cheng, 2021).

1.2 Rising Concerns:

The transportation sector is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to its reliance on weather-dependent infrastructure and the inherent sensitivity of road users to environmental conditions. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and the occurrence of extreme weather events can pose significant challenges to road safety. Rising concerns include the increased frequency and severity of weather-related accidents, compromised road infrastructure, and the need for responsive policies to safeguard public safety in the face of changing climatic conditions.

Transport infrastructure and operations are badly affected from climate changes and research scholar offer different strategies and measures to address these challenges on roads, railways and ports. (Wang, Qu, & Yang, 2020).

It is evident that with rising in world population, there will be more vehicles demands and utilization. Increase in number of vehicles means more tendencies of road accidents due to immense traffic in the roads. Another negative aspect of high number of vehicles is their released gases which directly affect our ecosystem. In this context Global warming is one of the emerging issue which plays a role in climate changes. As a result climate changes may affect road safety and become a cause of road accidents.

Data on Traffic accidents in Punjab

Table I Data on Traffic accidents in Punjab

Year/Month	Total Number of Accidents	Accident		Persons		Total Number of Vehicles Involved
Year/Month	Total Number of Accidents	Fatal	Non - Fatal	Killed	Injured	Total Number of Vehicles Involved
2013-14	3696	1717	1979	2145	3941	3696
2014-15	3054	1435	1619	1750	3652	3054
2015-16	3288	1576	1712	2053	4550	3288
2016-17	3819	1989	1830	2494	5231	3819
2017-18	5093	2708	2385	3371	6772	5093
2018-19	4823	2808	2015	3423	5916	4823
2019-20	4294	2471	1823	3102	5746	5498
2020-21	4531	2643	1888	3307	5776	7287
2021 Jan	346	208	138	269	422	519
Feb	361	216	145	280	520	578
Mar	340	224	116	286	518	602
Apr	320	198	122	226	355	509
May	374	210	164	288	498	590
Jun	374	198	176	226	462	616
Jul	453	242	211	346	678	742
Aug	368	205	163	270	476	603
Sep	394	204	190	244	471	647
Oct	438	240	198	304	555	720
Nov	409	226	183	274	577	673
Dec	401	230	171	288	515	672

1.2.1 Road Infrastructure in Sargodha

There are 06 Provincial Highway Authority and 05 District roads in the Town. TMA Sargodha maintains 94 major and secondary roads in the Town.

Table II Sargodha Roads Detail

Transport Management Authority Roads Detail
No.	Name	Right of Way (Ft)	Surface Condition
1.	Capt. Islam Shaeed Road	100	Fair
2.	Zafar Ullah Chowk to Punjab College	50	Bad
3.	Shamsher Town Main Road	50	Bad
4.	Capt Ihsan Sheed Road to Shamsher Town Main	40	Bad
5.	Capt Ihsan Sheed Road	40	Bad
6.	Malik Saleem Awan	30	Bad
7.	Liberty Road	30	Bad
8.	NS I	30	Bad
9.	Main Road NST	100	Bad
10.	ES I	30	Bad
11.	Haroon Clinic Road	30	Bad
12.	10 No Dali	30	Bad
13.	Ansar Colony to Bashir Khumar	20	Bad
14.	Bakkar Mandi Chowk to Factory Area Chowk	40	Good
15.	SP Office	40	Good
16.	Sargodha-Gujrat Road	50	Fair
17.	N-60 National Highway (Sargodha to Lahore)	60	Good
18.	M-2 Motorway (which connects Lahore and Islamabad)	N/A	Good

1.3 Local temperature assessment

Data on temperature conditions was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department. The table below shows the monthly temperature (Record high, Average high, Daily mean, Average low and Record low) of Sargodha in recent year.

Table III Monthly temperature of Sargodha

Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
Record high °C	28.59	34.51	43.38	48.31	51.27	55.21	52.25	50.28	49.3	36.48	44.37	32.53	55.21
Average high °C	21.85	24.51	30.2	37.16	42.72	44.93	42.83	40.56	40.0	29.72	37.02	24.35	34.65
Daily mean°C	16.8	19.76	25.5	32.98	39.16	41.83	40.08	37.67	36.23	24.98	32.62	19.3	30.57
Average low °C	10.05	11.71	16.12	23.53	30.08	33.93	33.8	31.42	28.4	18.01	24.5	13.02	22.88
Record low °C	3.94	4.93	8.87	14.79	21.69	24.65	25.63	24.65	22.68	10.84	17.75	5.92	3.94

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 1.35 million people diet worldwide in road accidents annually and cost $518 billion USD. It is anticipated that road accidents become the fifth cause of death by 2030.(Al-Reesi, Ganguly, Al-Adaw, & Laflamm, 2013) The factors of road accidents are numerous(Ruth, Mohammed, Constantinos, & George ) weather conditions are among significant factors. Weather conditions mostly affect mobility of the vehicles. ((Ed.), 2008) Change in mobility of vehicles, indeed, lead to the road accidents. Temperature, however, a prominent factor has broadly impact three elements road environment, vehicle and driver. (Alin, Corneliu, & Mihaela, 2020). Some researchers found that air temperature impact both driver behavior and traffic volumes. Sometimes extreme temperature reduces visibility and cause loss of vehicle control. (Shohel Reza Amin, Alireza, & Luis E., 2014). Both extreme temperatures (high and low) have an immense influence on the risk of road traffic accidents. Many studies showed that increase in temperature above average temperature may increase the number of fatal traffic accidents. (Zou, Zhang, & Cheng, 2021). Mostly it has been seen that increase in temperature may cause weakening vehicle efficiency and also alter driver’s physical and mental conditions. So increase the probability and intensity of the road accidents. (Stern & Zehavi, 1990). Some studies found that the frequency of fatal road accidents rises about 4% for every 1◦F increase in average temperature. High temperatures were found to be associated with irritability and aggression, as it increases fatigue and anger in drivers. In addition previous research identified that high temperatures decrease mental performance and reaction time (Weiner & Hutchinson, 1945). Extreme temperatures may cause loss of concentration and enhance the probability of crashes due to reduction of reaction time. (Bevan, Jeremy, & James, Road transport sensitivities to weather and climate change in Australia, 2007).

A research conducted by McDonald (1984) found that only temperature of 25 ºC cause fatigue among truck drivers, many others studies also gave similar results. Furthermore drivers feel fatigue with increase in temperature so it causes sleepiness, tiredness and reduce alertness.(Paeth & Hense, November 4 2002). Similarly some medications may also increase risk of weather related disorders or illness for example psychotropic medications during heat waves. (Iwona, Adam, & Dariusz, Good weather for a ride (or not?): how weather conditions impact road accidents — a case study from Wielkopolska (Poland), 2023). Extreme temperatures not only affect driver behavior but also deteriorate vehicle parts and road infrastructure. During extreme temperature it is probable to occur tires burst and engine failure due to overheating. (Clark, 2023). Similarly during winter injuries become increased whenever temperature drop below 0°C. Studies also found that some groups were more vulnerable to accidents such as young and male drivers. (Won-Kyung, Hye-Ah, & Seung-sik, 2014 ). Reduction in friction between road surface and tires often occurs during extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rain and snow, increases the chances of road accidents. (Kevin Keay, 2006). Low temperatures lead to accidents due to formation of ice on the roads. (Jongchul Park, September 2021). Professional driving is widely acknowledged to entail numerous risk factors for fatigue. These include nocturnal shifts, extended working hours, inadequate rest conditions, prolonged periods of sitting, and the significant responsibility for both passengers and cargo. (AE, 1989) Additionally, climate, particularly temperature, emerges as a crucial factor influencing driver fatigue, given the established correlation between thermal stress and physiological functioning. (Teresa Makowiec-Dąbrowska, 2019)

The study was conducted in Sargodha district, comprising of 7 tehsils namely as Sargodha, Kot Momin, Bhalwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali, Sahiwal and Bhera. The data was collected from drivers in Sargodha district. The subjects’ age ranged 20–60 years. In this study Nonprobability sampling was used to determine sample and obtaining data. For this purpose Convenience sampling design is employed. This is because the drivers are not confined to specific locality they may randomly disperse throughout area so Simple random sampling is better in such studies. So respondents were selected from different stations, which are close to hand or readily available, across the 7 tehsils (approx.9 from each) of Sargodha. In this study a sample of 60 drivers were selected in order to collect data. Since study design is quantitative research approach therefore quantitative data collection tools are utilized for the collection of data. The data collection tool that is used in this study is questionnaire (Likert scale and close ended questions). The designed questionnaire was well structured and comprised of consent latter, 5 variables questions. All the questions were closed ended and restricted to 5 scale response.

4.1 General perceptions of respondents (drivers) towards temperature:

Table IV General perceptions of respondents (drivers)

Statements	Strongly agree	agree	Neutral	disagree	Strongly disagree
Extreme temperatures (hot or cold) played a role in the occurrence of the accident.	45.0	55.0	0	0	0
Drivers experienced challenges in controlling vehicle during extremely hot or cold weather.	0	5.0	13.3	53.3	28.3
Vehicle handling is more difficult in specific temperature (hot or cold) conditions.	0	1.7	10.0	61.7	26.7
Drivers make adjustments to driving habits during extreme temperatures (e.g., adjusting speed, changing routes)	30.0	60.0	5.0	5.0	0
Drivers encounter road maintenance issues during extreme temperatures that may contribute to the accident.	26	33	0	1	0

Above Table shows perceptions and opinions of respondents towards temperature (either hot or cold) and its impacts on different driving conditions, driver’s behavior and vehicles causing road accidents. Over half of the respondents, constituting 55%, acknowledged that extreme temperatures, whether cold or hot, significantly contribute to road accidents. Conversely, a slightly lower percentage, 53.3%, disagreed with the notion that extreme temperatures play a role in controlling vehicles. Moreover, a significant majority, nearly two-thirds or 61.7% of the respondents, expressed the belief that extreme temperatures do not impact the handling of vehicles. Despite this perception, an overwhelming 60% of respondents admitted to adjusting their driving habits in response to extreme weather conditions. Furthermore, more than half of the respondents, precisely 55% reported encountering road maintenance issues during extreme temperatures, highlighting potential factors contributing to accidents on the road.

4.2 Chi-Square Tests

Table V Chi-Square Tests

	Value	df	Asymptotic Significance (2-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square	125.412^a	120	.349
Likelihood Ratio	100.250	120	.905
Linear-by-Linear Association	2.788	1	.095
N of Valid Cases	60
a. 147 cells (100.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is .02.

The following hypothesis has been tested at level of significance 0.05 with 120 degree of freedom. According to chi-square table the critical value is 113.145.The test chi-square, which has been computed through SPSS, is 125.412^a at 120 degree of freedom. If chi-square value is exceeding the table value then H0 should be rejected. So in this study researcher has observed that the chi-square is exceeding the critical value. So H0 will be rejected. Therefore there is a significant correlation between climatic variables (temperature) and the occurrence of road accidents in Sargodha District.

Extreme temperatures, whether in the form of scorching heat or bitter cold, present significant challenges to road safety. Understanding the multifaceted relationship between weather conditions and driving behaviors is crucial for devising effective strategies to mitigate risks and enhance safety on the roads. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of survey data regarding public perceptions on the impact of extreme temperatures on road accidents, vehicle control, handling, driving habits, and road maintenance issues. Additionally, insights from scholarly articles are incorporated to provide a comprehensive understanding of the complexities involved in this domain.

The Role of Extreme Temperatures in Road Accidents

The survey data reveals that a majority of respondents (55%) agree that extreme temperatures, whether cold or hot, play a role in road accidents. This perception aligns with existing research that underscores the influence of weather conditions on driving conditions and accident rates. According to Smith et al. (2019), sudden changes in temperature can lead to variations in road surface conditions, affecting traction and increasing the likelihood of accidents. (Smith, 2019) Furthermore, NHTSA (2020) highlights that extreme heat can cause tire blowouts and engine overheating, compromising vehicle control and safety.

Effects on Vehicle Control

Contrary to the acknowledgment of extreme temperatures as a factor in accidents, more than half of the respondents (53.3%) disagree that such conditions have effects on controlling the vehicle. This divergence in opinions warrants further exploration, as empirical evidence suggests that weather conditions can indeed impact vehicle control. Research by Brown and Johnson (2018) demonstrates that extreme cold can lead to decreased tire pressure and reduced traction, affecting steering responsiveness and braking distance. (Brown, 2018) Moreover, the study by NHTSA (2020) emphasizes the challenges posed by extreme heat on engine performance and tire integrity, which can compromise vehicle control. (NHTSA, 2020)

Handling of Vehicles

Interestingly, a significant proportion of respondents (61.7%) believe that extreme temperatures do not affect the handling of vehicles. This perception contradicts established knowledge that weather conditions can influence various aspects of vehicle handling. Smith et al. (Smith, 2019)highlight the impact of temperature fluctuations on road surface conditions, which can affect the grip and stability of vehicles. Additionally, Brown and Johnson note that extreme temperatures can alter tire pressure and stiffness, leading to changes in handling dynamics. (Brown, 2018)

Adaptation in Driving Habits

The survey data indicates that nearly two-thirds of respondents (60%) make adjustments in their driving habits during extreme weather. This proactive approach is commendable and underscores the importance of driver awareness and adaptability in mitigating risks on the road. Articles by AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety (2021) emphasize the significance of defensive driving techniques and adjusting speed and following distance in response to adverse weather conditions. (AAA, 2021) Furthermore, education and awareness campaigns play a crucial role in promoting safe driving practices during extreme temperatures.

Road Maintenance Issues

Alarmingly, more than half of the respondents (55%) encountered road maintenance issues during extreme temperatures that may have contributed to accidents. This finding underscores the importance of adequate infrastructure and maintenance protocols to ensure road safety in adverse weather conditions. ASCE (2021) highlights the challenges of maintaining safe roads in extreme temperatures, including pavement deterioration, pothole formation, and reduced visibility. Addressing these issues requires strategic planning and investment in infrastructure improvements and maintenance strategies. (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2021)

The survey data provides valuable insights into public perceptions regarding the impact of extreme temperatures on road safety. While there is a general acknowledgment of weather conditions as a factor in accidents, there exists a notable disparity in understanding regarding the effects on vehicle control and handling. Encouragingly, many respondents reported making adjustments in their driving habits during extreme weather, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures in mitigating risks. However, the prevalence of road maintenance issues underscores the need for concerted efforts to ensure safe driving conditions through infrastructure improvements and maintenance protocols.

This research shows that most of the drivers didn’t affected in controlling vehicle but other challenges regarding extreme temperature exist such as extreme temperature affects road conditioning, vehicle working and driver behavior. At high temperatures vehicles face engine over-heating and bursting of tyres so to encounter these challenges drivers must driving carefully and avoid high speed. At very low temperatures road become icy causing vehicles skidding so meticulous driving is essential during extreme low temperatures. Drivers behavior is also affected during extreme temperatures I;e drivers feels stress during high temperature indeed it may lead road accidents.

We hereby confirm that the above-mentioned research study has been reviewed and approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Sargodha. The ethical review process has ensured that the study complies with all relevant ethical guidelines and standards for research involving human subjects.

Acknowledgement

We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all those who supported us during the course of this research. We are especially thankful to our academic mentors and colleagues for their valuable insights and constructive feedback, which significantly enhanced the quality of our work. Their guidance was instrumental in refining our research and analysis. We also appreciate the support from our families and friends, whose encouragement and understanding were vital throughout the research process.

Lastly, we acknowledge the invaluable contribution of the participants who provided data for this study, as their cooperation was essential for the successful completion of our research. The views expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of any individuals or organizations.

Funding Declaration

The authors declare that this research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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The Impact of Temperature on Road Accidents. A Study on Drivers’ Behavior in Sargodha District

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Abstract

1. Introduction

1.1 Background Information:-

1.2 Rising Concerns:

1.2.1 Road Infrastructure in Sargodha

1.3 Local temperature assessment

2. Literature Review

3. Research Methodology

4. Data Analysis

4.1 General perceptions of respondents (drivers) towards temperature:

4.2 Chi-Square Tests

5. Discussion

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

Declarations

References

Additional Declarations

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