Background: It is important to identify deterioration in normotension patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting deterioration among normotensive patients with acute PE on admission.
Methods: Clinical, laboratory, and computed tomography parameters were retrospective collected for normotension patients with acute PE who were treated at a Chinese center from January 2011 to May 2020 on admission into hospital. The endpoint of the deterioration was any adverse outcome within 30 days. The eligible patients were randomized 2:1 to training and validation datasets. A nomogram was developed and validated by training and validation datasets respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A risk-scoring tool for predicting deterioration was applied as a web-based calculator.
Results: The 845 eligible patients (420 men, 425 women) had an average age of 60.05±15.43 years. Adverse outcomes were identified for 81 patients (9.6%). The nomogram for adverse outcomes included heart rate, systolic pressure, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, and ventricular/atrial diameter ratios at 4-chamber view, which provided AUC values of 0.925 in the training dataset (95% CI: 0.900–0.946, p<0.001) and 0.900 in the validation dataset (95% CI: 0.883–0.948, p<0.001). A risk-scoring tool was published as a web-based calculator (https://gaoyzcmu.shinyapps.io/APE9AD/).
Conclusions: We developed a web-based scoring tool that may help predict deterioration in normotensive patients with acute PE.

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On 02 Nov, 2020
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On 15 Oct, 2020
Received 14 Oct, 2020
On 04 Oct, 2020
Invitations sent on 02 Oct, 2020
On 29 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 13 Dec, 2020
On 12 Dec, 2020
Received 12 Dec, 2020
Received 08 Dec, 2020
Invitations sent on 07 Dec, 2020
On 07 Dec, 2020
On 28 Nov, 2020
On 28 Nov, 2020
On 28 Nov, 2020
On 28 Nov, 2020
Received 27 Nov, 2020
On 23 Nov, 2020
Received 19 Nov, 2020
On 17 Nov, 2020
Invitations sent on 16 Nov, 2020
On 14 Nov, 2020
On 14 Nov, 2020
On 14 Nov, 2020
Posted 03 Aug, 2020
On 02 Nov, 2020
Received 28 Oct, 2020
On 15 Oct, 2020
Received 14 Oct, 2020
On 04 Oct, 2020
Invitations sent on 02 Oct, 2020
On 29 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
On 28 Jul, 2020
Background: It is important to identify deterioration in normotension patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting deterioration among normotensive patients with acute PE on admission.
Methods: Clinical, laboratory, and computed tomography parameters were retrospective collected for normotension patients with acute PE who were treated at a Chinese center from January 2011 to May 2020 on admission into hospital. The endpoint of the deterioration was any adverse outcome within 30 days. The eligible patients were randomized 2:1 to training and validation datasets. A nomogram was developed and validated by training and validation datasets respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A risk-scoring tool for predicting deterioration was applied as a web-based calculator.
Results: The 845 eligible patients (420 men, 425 women) had an average age of 60.05±15.43 years. Adverse outcomes were identified for 81 patients (9.6%). The nomogram for adverse outcomes included heart rate, systolic pressure, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, and ventricular/atrial diameter ratios at 4-chamber view, which provided AUC values of 0.925 in the training dataset (95% CI: 0.900–0.946, p<0.001) and 0.900 in the validation dataset (95% CI: 0.883–0.948, p<0.001). A risk-scoring tool was published as a web-based calculator (https://gaoyzcmu.shinyapps.io/APE9AD/).
Conclusions: We developed a web-based scoring tool that may help predict deterioration in normotensive patients with acute PE.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
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