See the published version of this preprint at BMC Public Health.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
Research article
Pinar Keskinocak
Georgia Institute of Technology College of Engineering
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2686-546X
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background. Recent research has been conducted by various countries and regions on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on reducing the spread of COVID19. This study evaluates the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of NPIs for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from interactions outside of the household).
Methods. An agent-based simulation model, which captures the natural history of the disease at the individual level, and the infection spread via a contact network assuming heterogeneous population mixing in households, peer groups (workplaces, schools), and communities, is adapted to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020.
Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 4.5, 23.1, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 119K-248K, 465K-499K, 5,388K-5,389K, respectively. Compared to no intervention, school closure only reduced the percentage of the population infected by less than 16% while more than doubling the peak number of adults homebound.
Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of infections and deaths with a considerably smaller number of homebound person-days compared to shelter-in-place.
Keywords
agent-based disease modeling, non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies, COVID19
Figure 1
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 4
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at BMC Public Health.
Version 2
Posted 18 Nov, 2020
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 23 Feb, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 14 Feb, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 01 Feb, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 19 Jan, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 Jan, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 15 Dec, 2020
Editor assigned
On 08 Nov, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 08 Nov, 2020
Editor invited
On 08 Nov, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 30 Oct, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 24 Oct, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 26 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 21 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Aug, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 18 Aug, 2020
Editor assigned
On 12 Aug, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 11 Aug, 2020
Editor invited
On 11 Aug, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Learn more about our company.
A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
See the published version of this preprint at BMC Public Health.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research article
Pinar Keskinocak
Georgia Institute of Technology College of Engineering
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2686-546X
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at BMC Public Health.
Version 2
Posted 18 Nov, 2020
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Minor revision
On 23 Feb, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 14 Feb, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 01 Feb, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 19 Jan, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 Jan, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 15 Dec, 2020
Editor assigned
On 08 Nov, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 08 Nov, 2020
Editor invited
On 08 Nov, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 30 Oct, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 24 Oct, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 26 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 21 Aug, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Aug, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 18 Aug, 2020
Editor assigned
On 12 Aug, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 11 Aug, 2020
Editor invited
On 11 Aug, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at BMC Public Health.
Background. Recent research has been conducted by various countries and regions on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on reducing the spread of COVID19. This study evaluates the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of NPIs for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from interactions outside of the household).
Methods. An agent-based simulation model, which captures the natural history of the disease at the individual level, and the infection spread via a contact network assuming heterogeneous population mixing in households, peer groups (workplaces, schools), and communities, is adapted to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020.
Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 4.5, 23.1, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 119K-248K, 465K-499K, 5,388K-5,389K, respectively. Compared to no intervention, school closure only reduced the percentage of the population infected by less than 16% while more than doubling the peak number of adults homebound.
Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of infections and deaths with a considerably smaller number of homebound person-days compared to shelter-in-place.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 4
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...