Remission signature genes in RA
The primary objective is to explore genes that are relevant to remission status in RA (so called, remission signature genes). Therefore, we first selected genes that were useful for separating patients with remission and those with non-remission using training dataset of derivation cohort, with dividing for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. By lasso, of whole 15304 transcripts, 17 and 46 genes were selected as important molecules in CD4+ and CD8+ T cells for classifying patients with remission or non-remission, respectively.
Then, we weighted genes selected by lasso and construct statistical model that separate remission and non-remission (so called, RA remission signature model) by applying PLS-R. As a result, ROC analysis by applying test set that wasn’t used for selection separated them with good accuracy (area under the curve [AUC], 0.947 and 0.929 for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, respectively) (Figure 2A). This result indicated that the combination of lasso and PLS-R captured genes that were informative in our data. In addition, 9 (e.g., MST1, ASB2, SULT2B1 and SOCS3) and 23 (e.g., CRLF2, NIM1 and ID1) genes were passed through criteria (VIP > 1) in CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, respectively (Figure 2B and 2C and Supplementary Table S1). Hereafter, we refer to these genes as remission signature genes. To understand the function of remission signature genes, pathway analysis was performed (Figure 2B and 2C). In CD4+ T cells, molecules involved in various metabolic pathways (Vitamin B6 metabolism and Glycine, serine and threonine metabolism), endocrine pathways (steroid hormone biosynthesis, adipocytokine signaling pathway, prolactin signaling pathway and insulin resistance) and TNF signaling pathway were enriched. As to CD8+ T cells, as well, molecules involved in metabolic pathways (taurine and hypotaurine metabolism and fatty acid degradation) and JAK-STAT signaling pathway were enriched.
Remission odds of T cell subpopulation
To investigate the effects of different DMARDs and difference of T cell subpopulation (TN, TCM, TEM and TEMRA) on remission signature genes, we compared remission odds according to each subgroup. Using RA remission signature model generated by the combination of lasso and PLS-R, remission odds of each subject were produced: if patients were in remission status, remission odds toward 1 (>0.5), and if patients were far apart from remission, remission odds toward 0 (<0.5). Since T cells in SF are considered to reflect pathological status, we calculated remission odds of T cell subpopulation in SF from some patients.
In CD4+ T cells, remission odds of patients with DMARDs, all of whom were in remission except one patient (Figure 1), were significantly higher compared with drug-naïve patients (Figure 3A). Of note, although there was no significance due to limited samples, SF samples had trend toward low remission odds as well as drug-naïve samples from peripheral blood, suggesting remission signature genes might represent pathogenic status of RA. Conversely, in comparison with HCs, they were similar values without difference of type of drugs, indicating all drugs pushed pathogenic gene expression profile of remission signature genes back to healthy state. Correspondingly, principal component analysis (PCA) using remission signature genes in CD4+ T cells demonstrated only drug-naïve samples made different cluster from others except naïve subset (Figure 3B). To validate classification ability of remission signature genes, PCA analysis was conducted using expression data in validation cohort. Along with earlier results, samples from patients in remission created cluster apart from those in non-remission, supporting robustness of remission signature genes of CD4+ T cells (Figure 3C).
Regarding to CD8+ T cell subpopulations, like CD4+ T cells, all of remission odds of patients with DMARDs were significantly higher compared with those of drug-naïve (Figure 4A). However, remission odds of some samples in groups of DMARDs were also significantly higher than those of HCs, suggesting selected genes in CD8+ T cells might not represent healthy state correctly. In addition, PCA demonstrated all clusters overlapped except TEM subpopulation (Figure 4B). Further, PCA using validation cohort also couldn’t show validity of selected genes, indicating vulnerable ability of remission signature genes in CD8+ T cells (Figure 4C).
Relations between molecular remission and following disease activity
To elucidate the benefits of MR, we next addressed whether there were any differences between patients in “deep” MR and non-deep MR. To achieve this goal, we conducted a follow-up study of consecutive 29 patients (MTX, n=10; IFX, n=10; TCZ, n=9) treated with DMARDs in derivation cohort for up to 12 months after the time point at measurement of gene expression. We defined MR of each cell subset as remission odds greater than average value of remission odds in each cell subset, and deep MR of each patient as the number of cell subsets in MR greater than 4 (maximum 7). Of the 29 patients treated with DMARDs, 12 and 17 patients were classified as deep MR and non-deep MR. Disease activity did not have a statistically significant difference at any time point (Figure 5A). Cumulative DAS28-ESR (described as AUC), however, of patients treated with TCZ in deep MR had a trend lower than those with TCZ in non-deep MR (12.48 [11.25-13.82] vs 18.26 [17.07-18.36], p = 0.19) (Figure 5B). In comparison among drugs, the difference was significant between patients treated with TCZ and those with MTX in deep MR. Although we conducted sensitivity analysis by changing outcome (e.g., DAS28-CRP and each component of DAS28) and definition of deep MR (e.g., the cut-off number of cell subpopulation, limited to CD4+ T cell subpopulations), we couldn’t find significant benefit of deep MR in our data (data not shown).