3.1 Prognostic importance of CD8+ T cells and TMB
Clinical characteristics of 403 patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) used in this study were introduced in Table S1. The heatmap plot demonstrated that the expression patterns of immune checkpoint molecules (e.g. PD-1, PD-L1, CTLA-4, HAVCR-2, and LAG-3) distinguished the basal and luminal subtypes and that the basal tumors expressed higher levels of immune checkpoint molecules than luminal subtype (Figure 1A). The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis shows that TMB (Figure 1B) and CD8+ T cells (Figure 1C) were substantially associated with the MIBC prognosis. To be specific, the higher level of CD8+ T cells and TMB are associated with improved overall survival (OS). Simultaneously, we observed that B cells, dendritic cells, macrophages, neutrophils, NK cells, and CD4+ T cells were not statistically significantly correlated with the MIBC prognosis (P<0.01) (Figure S1A-F). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses further confirmed that CD8+ T cells (HR = 0.664, 95% CI = 0.489-0.902, P=0.008) and TMB (HR = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.500-0.921, P<0.0129) were significantly associated with the OS, indicating again CD8+ T cells and TMB are independent prognostic predictors for the survival of MIBC patients. Besides, age (HR = 1.033, 95% CI = 1.017 to 1.049, P<0.001), pathological stage (HR = 2.380, 95% CI = 1.596-3.548, P<0.001), and molecular subtype (HR = 0.586, 95% CI = 0.426-0.805, P<0.001) were found to be independent prognostic predictors (Table S2).
3.2 Correlation analysis of CD8+ T cells and TMB
CD8+ T cells and TMB are nonidentical when comparing the median value of the clinicopathological characteristic groups of MIBC patients. Patents with high CD8+ T cells, as shown in Figure 1D, were characterized by male, high pathological stage, and response to primary therapy, whereas high TMB was characterized by luminal subtype, high grade, and response to primary therapy (Figure 1E). Importantly, PCC analysis revealed that TMB and CD8+ T cells exhibited a weak association (r=0.11, P<0.05) (Figure S2A). Through PCC analysis, we also observed that the correlation between CD8+ T cells and immune checkpoints, such as PD-L1, CTLA-4, PD-1, HAVCR-2, LAG-3, is pronounced compared with TMB (Table S3). Together, these results indicate that CD8 + T cells and TMB may be independent indicators when predicting the response to immune checkpoint inhibitors in MIBC, and that CD8 + T cells likely have better predictive ability than TMB.
3.3 Construction of MIBC immunotypes and their clinical prognosis
The hierarchical consensus clustering was performed on the TCGA dataset comprising 403 tumor samples and three attributes (molecular subtype, TMB, and CD8+ T cells), with key parameters as follows: reps = 100, innerLinkage = complete, clusterAlg = hc, maxK = 10, and distance = pearson. The optimum cluster number K of 403 samples was determined with delta area plots and consensus cumulative distribution function (CDF) plots. According to the first “elbow” rule, the relative change in area under CDF curve suggests the optimal K of 3 (Figure 1F). Similarly, consensus CDF plots showed that the CDF curve tended to be flat when K = 3, indicating the optimal K of 3 (Figure S2B). In addition, the consensus clustering matrix suggested that the number of samples in the three groups was relatively balanced, which is a desirable result for further comparative analysis (Figure 1G).
A heatmap depicturing immune cells, immune check-point biomarkers, and TMB was provided, which clearly showed (i) immunotype A was characterized by the high expression of immunotherapy indicators such as immune checkpoint genes, CD8+ T cells, and TMB, in contrast, (ii) immunotype B was characterized by low expression of those immunotherapy indicators. While (iii) immunotype C tends to high express immune checkpoint genes and low express CD8+ T cells and TMB (Figure 2A). The survival analysis revealed that the immunotype A conferred better overall survival (OS) and immunotype B conferred medium OS, while immunotype C exhibited a surprising poorer OS (P<0.05, log-rank test) (Figure 2B).
3.4 Clinical outcomes of immunotypes in IMvigor210 cohort
The IMvigor210 cohort including 348 MIBC patients treated with Atezolizumab was used to further evaluate the clinical benefit of the immune subtypes. The baseline characteristics of the IMvigor210 cohort were described in Table S4. The K-M survival analysis has confirmed that immunotype A is associated with increased survival rate for patients treated with Atezolizumab, immunotype B is associated with medium survival rate, whereas immunotype C poorer OS (Figure 2C). These findings are consistent with ones from a study conducted in the TCGA cohort, suggesting again that it is appropriate to use our method to distinguish patients.
It is to be noted that the objective response rate (ORR) was defined as the proportion of patients who have a partial or complete response to therapy. We found that patients in immunotype A behaved better ORR to Atezolizumab, about 36%. In addition, immunotype B exerted moderate ORR, about 19%, whereas immunotype C worst ORR, about 13% (Figure 2D). Our results indicated that the efficacy of immunotherapy is strongly influenced by the composition and abundance of CD8+ T cells in the tumor microenvironment, immune checkpoints, and TMB.
3.5 Identification of mutated genes in immunotypes
Genetic mutation is the basis of phenotype diversity among immunotypes. We sought to explore the potential regulatory tumor mutation genes among immunotypes. The mutation annotation file (MAF) of the patients with MIBC in TCGA dataset was analyzed using the R package “maftools”, and the summary of overall mutation profile was illustrated (Figure 3A-C). TTN, TP53, KMT2D, MUC16, ARID1A, KDM6A, and SYNE1 had a high frequency mutation rate in all immunotypes (>16%). There are immunotype-specific genes differentially mutated as follows: (i) PIK3CA and RB1 were found to be mutated in immunotype A and immunotype C; (ii) FGFR3, KMT2C, and MACF1 immunotype B; (iii) RYR2 was observed to be mutated in immunotype A; (iv) and EP300 immunotype C.
3.6 Weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA)
Functional modules can, furthermore, reveal more effectively the consistent differences during MIBC tumorigenesis and progression. WGCNA was performed on 4677 prognostic-specific mRNAs. According to scale independence and mean connectivity plot, we picked “8” as the proper soft-thresholding power, which can raise co-expression similarity to achieve consistent scale-free topology (Figure S2C, D). A cluster dendrogram revealing nine modules highly co-expressed was provided, in which each co-expression module was assigned by an arbitrary brilliant color for reference, and the non-co-expression group was designated as a gray color (Figure 3D). The MEs based on the first principal component were calculated for each module to assess the association between modules and clinical information including immunotype. The results, as visualized in Figure 3E, showed that the blue module containing 546 genes possessed the highest correlation with immunotype (r = 0.27, P<0.01) as well as pathological stage (r = 0.33, P<0.01).
3.7 Analysis of enriched GO terms and KEGG pathways
We then investigated enriched pathways related to genes within the blue module by performing GO and KEGG enrichment analysis, and the top-ranked terms and pathways were visualized in Figure 3F. Some Immune system-related terms and pathways were largely identified, including ECM-receptor interaction, PI3K-Akt signaling pathway, focal adhesion, TGF-beta signaling pathway, human papillomavirus infection, extracellular matrix organization, skeletal system development, collagen-containing extracellular matrix, endoplasmic reticulum lumen, extracellular matrix structural constituent, and glycosaminoglycan binding, etc..
3.8 Protein-protein network analysis
Cytoscape is an open-source and user-friendly software platform for visualizing molecular interaction networks and biological pathways. The experimental PPI between those 546 genes, retrieved from the STRING database, was visualized as a PPI network by Cytoscape software. Subsequently, eight hub genes from the network were identified with the cut-off value of MCC score >5, using the cytoHubba plug of Cytoscape (Figure 3E). The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis for eight genes was conducted on both TCGA and the IMvigor210 datasets to determine which of them is of prognostic value indeed. Surprisingly, low ACTA2, as shown in Figure 4, was associated with the survival benefit for both MIBC patients from TCGA and MIBC patients treated with Atezolizumab.