Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting 5-year Overall Survival in Chinese Patients With High-grade Osteosarcoma

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-569217/v1

Abstract

This study purposed to construct a widely accepted prognostic nomogram in Chinese high-grade osteosarcoma (HOS) patients aged ≤ 30 years to provide insight into predicting 5-year overall survival (OS). Data of 503 consecutive HOS patients at our centre between 12/2012 and 05/2019 were retrospectively collected. The 84 clinical features, routine laboratory haematological and biochemical testing indicators of each patient at the time of diagnosis were collected. A prognostic nomogram model for predicting OS was constructed based on Cox proportional hazards model. The performance was assessed by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curve. The utility was evaluated by decision curve analysis. The 5-year OS was 52.1% and 2.6% for the nonmetastatic and metastatic patients, respectively. The nomogram included nine important variables based on a multivariate analysis: tumour stage, surgical type, metastasis, preoperative neoadjuvant chemotherapy cycle, postoperative metastasis time, mean corpuscular volume, tumour-specific growth factor, gamma-glutamyl transferase and creatinine. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram was able to predict 5-year OS accurately. The C-index of the nomogram for OS prediction was 0.795 (range, 0.703-0.887). Moreover, the decision curve analysis curve also demonstrated the clinical benefit of this model. The nomogram provides an individualized risk estimate of the 5-year OS in patients with HOS aged ≤ 30 years in a Chinese population-based cohort.

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