DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-573230/v1
In the field of open-pit geological risk management, landslide failure time prediction is one of the important topics. Based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, the inverse velocity method (IVM) has become an effective method to solve this issue. In order to improve the reliability of landslide prediction, four filters were used to test the velocity time series, and the effect of landslide failure time prediction was compared and analyzed. The IVM is used to predict the failure time of open-pit coal mine landslide. The results show that the sliding process of landslide can be divided into three stages based on the IVM: the initial attenuation stage (regressive stage), the second attenuation stage (progressive stage), the linear reduction stage (autoregressive stage). The accuracy of the IVM is closely related to the measured noise of the monitoring equipment and the natural noise of the environment, which will affect the identification of different deformation stages. Compared with the raw data and the exponential smoothing filter (ESF) models, the fitting effect of short-term smoothing filter (SSF) and long-term smoothing filter (LSF) in the linear autoregressive stage is better. A slope displacement pixel difference method based on fitting accuracy and field monitoring signals is proposed to determine the point onset-of-acceleration (OOA) that is very important role for landslide prediction. A stratified prediction method combining SSF and LSF is proposed. The prediction method is divided into two levels, and the application of this method is given.