The present study was performed to model a COVID-19 spread and stabilization constraints for the regional people of Madhya Pradesh, India, at the mid-time of the lockdown period. A novel mathematical model was developed to predict the number of days required to break the virus spread chain based on the chain breaking concept of the virus carriers. This model has predicted the very accurate COVID-19 results at a mid-time of the lockdown period. Unfortunately, a good recovery rate was not achieved in Madhya Pradesh as expected by the model to stop the chain of virus spread. Thus, this novel model failed to predict the COVID-19 spread for a large duration. Nevertheless, this novel model has much potential to model the other parallel situations similar to COVID-19 spread.