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Brief Communication
Edwin Michael
University of South Florida
Corresponding Author
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The unfolding COVID-19 emergency in India not only points to the explosive speed with which SARS-CoV-2 can spread in populations if unchecked, but also to the gross misreading of the status of the pandemic when decisions to reopen the economy were made in March this year. In this modelling analysis, we isolate the population and policy-related factors underlying the current viral resurgence, and project the growth and magnitude of the health impact and demand for hospital care that may arise if immediate measures to contain the pandemic are not implemented. We indicate that only by re-introducing some measure of social mitigation alongside a swift ramping up of vaccinations will the country be able to contain and ultimately end the pandemic safely. Our results together with the scale of the virus resurgence reported in India also highlight the need for national decision-making that is driven primarily by scientific analysis and data.
Keywords
COVID-19 emergency, projections, management, India
The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
There is NO Competing Interest.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
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A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Brief Communication
Edwin Michael
University of South Florida
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 03 Jun, 2021
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
The unfolding COVID-19 emergency in India not only points to the explosive speed with which SARS-CoV-2 can spread in populations if unchecked, but also to the gross misreading of the status of the pandemic when decisions to reopen the economy were made in March this year. In this modelling analysis, we isolate the population and policy-related factors underlying the current viral resurgence, and project the growth and magnitude of the health impact and demand for hospital care that may arise if immediate measures to contain the pandemic are not implemented. We indicate that only by re-introducing some measure of social mitigation alongside a swift ramping up of vaccinations will the country be able to contain and ultimately end the pandemic safely. Our results together with the scale of the virus resurgence reported in India also highlight the need for national decision-making that is driven primarily by scientific analysis and data.
The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
There is NO Competing Interest.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- Methods.docx
Online Methods
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