Ghana’s Nuclear Power and Its Role in Climate Change

The Ghana Nuclear Power Agenda is a programme laid out by the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission in collaboration with the government of Ghana to guide and facilitate the installation of Ghana’s rst ever nuclear power plant. The nuclear power plant is expected to generate between 1000 and 12800 MW of electricity from its very rst and nal installations in a span of 20 years. Ghana's Third National Communication (TNC) Report to the UNFCCC indicates 59 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO 2 e) emission in 2011. Between 1991 and 2011, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew by 20% as energy intensity of the economy rose alongside with a growing demand in industry, transport and households. If nothing is done to curtail GHG emission from fossil-source power plants, the looming catastrophe of the changing climate will occur faster than we imagine. On the basis of this, advocacy for nuclear power has been intensied in Ghana. Nuclear power is not only environmentally friendly (zero-to-low carbon emission), it is ecient and sustainable source of energy. It offers current and future energy needs without burdening future generations with a broken environment. Using Monte Carlo’s model, the current study estimates a cumulative increase (35%) in CO 2 emission between 2016 and 2026 without nuclear power in Ghana’s energy mix. With the inclusion of nuclear power in the country’s energy mix by 2029, the model estimates CO 2 emission cut by 12.5% between 2029 and 2039. Thus, given the same period of time, the rate of emission of CO 2 was found to be more than twice its reduction.


Introduction
The 21st century has seen a tremendous surge in industrial activities especially in Europe and North America. Currently, Asia with a lot more developing countries are becoming more and more industrialized with the aim of bridging the industrial gap and expanding their economies. While industrialization is a necessity for the ever increasing global population coupled with increase in demands for goods and services, there is however, a looming threat on the environment due to excessive pressure on natural resources and release of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere.
There is a global scienti c concensus about utilization of fossil fuel energy being responsible for increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the phenomenon of global warming and climate change (Matysek et al. 2006;Denman et al. 2007). Munasinghe et al. 2010, describes climate change as an emerging issue of major global concern for everyone in the universe. It threatens to aggravate the intimidating problems of development we face today like poverty, food security, diseases, and scarcities of water and energy.
Altough there are other GHGs such as nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), and chloro uorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere, CO 2 alone contributes about 50% to global warming making it the biggest culprit of this phenomenon (Niharika et al. 2014). Combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation remains the main human source of GHG emission, however, non-energy emissions (including agriculture and land-use changes) contribute more than a third of the total global GHG emissions (McMichael et al. 2007).
Anthropogenic activities including energy production from fossil-fueled plants, oil and natural gas combustion, cement manufacturing, deforestation etc. have together contributed to the signi cant rise in the CO 2  Anthropogenic sources of CO 2 are much smaller copared to the natural emissions; yet, they have caused an upset in the natural balance that have existed thousands of years a go between the natural sinks that remove CO 2 and the source that produce them (Denman et al. 2007). Until the surge in the CO 2 concentration, emission and washout of CO 2 in the atmosphere have been in a balance and within a safe range. Human activities, however, have disrupted the balance by adding extra CO 2 without means of removing any (Denman et al. 2007).
Lignite (LNG) also known as brown coal, is a combustible sedimentary rock used for electric power generation with about 70% carbon content and up to 19% ash content. It constitutes a major energy source and has long been used for energy production despite its signi cat contribution in GHG emissions (Violidakis and Nikolopoulos (2017)). About 27.4% of Germany's electricity originates from lignite power plants whereas in Greece more than 55% of the country's electric energy is derived from lignite (Violidakis and Nikolopoulos (2017)). High moisture content of lignite results in higher CO 2 emissions per unit of energy produced. Lignite is also reported to be responsible for high capital and transport costs as well as technical problems such as reduction in coal friability and di culties in its blending and pneumatic transportation (Violidakis and Nikolopoulos (2017)). In ranking, 45% global coal reserves consist of lignite making it the lowest ranking in the coal classi cation system (Grammelis and Karampinis (2016)). It is readily available natural resource in many countries in Europe and America (Grammelis and Karampinis (2016); Violidakis and Nikolopoulos (2017) and cheaper material for energy generation.
Demands for energy to produce basic human needs such as food, shelter and clothing have increased drastically since the rst industrial revolution. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that, global demands for electricity rose by 4% in 2018 (IEA 2018), an increase twice as fast as the overall demand for energy. Over the next 20 years, this demand is expected to increase by 43% (IAEA 2009). This expectation offers the opportunity to be proactive in the ght against climate change by reducing reliance on fossil fuel energy sources unto low-to-zero carbon emitting energy sources.
Whilst global energy demand rises, emission of GHGs and other chemical substances detrimental to human health and destruction of the ecosystem rise along. Carbon emission is a major concern due to its light absorbing characteristics causing positive radiative forcing of the climate (Scienti c American 2018). Growing public concerns over the impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions; its climatic and economic effects have led to a signi cant and concerted efforts to reduce carbon emissions through sustainable and e cient energy production (Kennedy and Sgourdis (2011)). In this regard, policies relating to production and utilization of energy are very crucial and should be informed on key issues such as emissions, sustainability and environmental impact. Curtailment of GHG emission through energy policies is not only a worthwhile strategy but the most effective and e cient in mitigating the negative consequences of climate change.
Nuclear power offers that e cient and effective solution to work down on CO 2 emission and save the environment from a looming destruction. It offers a choice to harness our resources to meet our current and later energy needs without burdening future generations with a broken environment with associated health, economic and environmental crises. It is important to note that, no industry is completely immune from accidents; and when they occur, they become a cause for improved safeguards and regulations. Safeguards in the nuclear industry focuses on restraining activities that could lead to acquisition and/or development of nuclear weapons (IAEA 2018; WNA 2021). Safety on the other hand relates to measures and activities that mitigate radiation hazards as a result of radiological accidents and/or incidents (IAEA 2019; WNA 2021).
It is actually evident in the last 60 years of NPP operations across the globe that, it is a safe means of generating electricity; its risk of accident and the consequences thereof is minimal compared to other acceptable risks (WNA 2021). Furthermore, the IAEA provides recommendations and guidance on the use of deterministic safety analysis and its application to nuclear power plants in compliance with The government of Ghana in the last decade have intensi ed its efforts to include nuclear power in the energy mix of the country. Whilst this is regarded as a prudent move towards curtailing GHG emissions and restoring our depleting environment, it will go a long way in sustaining the energy needs of the country for its accelerated developmental goal. There is also the need to build a high quality human resource as well as logistical framework that can effectively deal with all the nuclear security and safety issues including use, transport, theft, threat and risks associated with nuclear materials and emergency response. In this regard, the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission (GAEC) and other local and international agencies are working together to achieve the ultimate goal of establishing Ghana's rst nuclear power plant.

Methodology
The GAEC main site (Fig. 1)  Documentations for the study were categorized with preferences based on country needs informed by geological, meteorological and economical considerations. Finally, data obtained were used in drafting Ghana's nuclear charter document for major thematic areas such as siting and environment, meteorology and atmospheric.
The current study focuses on CO 2 emission and how nuclear power will help cut down on its emission whilst at the same time supply sustainable and e cient energy for the accelerated growth of Ghana.
Evaluation and simulation of data Data of CO 2 emission from the major sources in Ghana such as transport, electric power generation, industrial combustion, noncombustion and building were obtained and simulated using Monte Carlo method. By this approach, ten year estimation of CO 2 emission sector-by-sector were simulated. The same model was used to estimate contribution of nuclear in cutting down CO 2 emission in the rst ten years (2029-2039) of nuclear power plant operation in Ghana .
Descriptive statistics such as the mean, minimum and maximum CO 2 emissions from the major sources in Ghana between 1996 and 2016 were computed using SPSS. The mean CO 2 value was then used as the primary datum to generate random variables for each of the sectors stated above by the Monte Carlo model.
The model is an excel-base software in which a cell is selected and de ned as the 'input variable' and another cell de ned as the 'forecast' or 'output variable'. Uncertainties associated with the input variable is offset by the probabilistic simulation approach of the model.
In the simulation process, the input variable is the mean CO 2 emission from each of the ve sectors. For each input, 1000 iterations/ simulation trials were inputed into the model and ran to generate a forecast/an output. Summary of the methodology is given in Fig. 2.  Table 1 is a Ghana versus global -sector by sector CO 2 emissions between 1996 and 2016. With a projected population of 30 million, estimated CO 2 emission per capita was equivalent to 0.48 tons per person. The current study further simulated CO 2 emission for the next ten years (2016-2026) of non-nuclear power regime; and ten years into the nuclear power regime (2029-2039) using Monte Carlo's probability model. Result of the model (Fig. 4) estimates an annual CO 2 emission rate of 3.5% or cumulatively 35% for the period 2029-2039. The model further estimates an annual CO 2 emission cut of 1.25% from the major emission sources under consideration during the rst ten years of the nuclear power regime. Cummilatively, CO 2 emission is reduced by 12.5% of for the period between 2029 and 2039. Thus, given the same period of time, emission rate is more than twice the reduction rate.

Impact of climate change on power generation in Ghana
Climate change has had grave consequence on Ghana's energy generation as hydro continues to be the leading source of power. Hydro-power currently produces about 1500 MW power (42%), followed closely by domestic gas, contributing 41% of the country's energy mix. Speci c effects of the climate such as rise in average temperature, variability in rain fall (reduced rainfall), changes in the intensity and pattern of In the last two decades, the government of Ghana through the Ministry of Energy, the Energy Commission and other stakeholders in the energy sector have implemented various measures to ultimately ensure energy su ciency, sustainability and reduction in CO 2 emissions. Measures such as replacement of high energy consumption bulbs to low ones; effacement of CFC refrigerants and diversi cation of the energy source of the country contributed greatly, however, not sustainably. The greatest challenges have always been cost recovery, wastage and illegal power connections all of which hamper expansion of the energy infrastructure of the country. As a result of these, the energy sector and the power sub-sector in particular have not improved su ciently to become economically independent; implement all the measures relating to sustainable energy and reduction in CO 2 emissions.

Contribution of nuclear power in resolving climate change
Nuclear energy is a sustainable, cost-effective and low-to-zero carbon emission source of power. Owing to Ghana's commitment to the UNFCCC, the country remains focused on its bid to integrate nuclear power into its power generation mix. The Ghana Nuclear Power Agenda has thus been formed with the involvement of major stakeholders in the energy sector to work together to achieve the ultimate goal of establishing the country's rst nuclear power plant. There is a steady progression as the Ministry of Energy sets up a target to fully activate the second phase of the project by the end of the rst quarter of 2019. The rst phase, which was primarily about making the decision to use nuclear power and meeting all the 19 infrastructural needs outlined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA 2007), was fully addressed by the country as at April 2017.
Phase II, which includes implementation of the decisions made in phase I has been activated and expected to take four years to complete. Phase III, which deals with the construction of the plants will take between ve and six years to complete (NPI 2018).
Ghana's rst nuclear power plant of 1000 MW capacity is expected to come onboard by 2029; the capacity will rise to 3000 MW by 2033 and by 2047 the country's nuclear power capacity would have risen to 12800 MW. Figure 5 illustrates the progression of Ghana's nuclear power from 2029 to 2047. The progression of nuclear power generation compared with other major power sources have also been illustrated in Fig. 6. Nuclear power generation capacity increases progressively from its inception in 2029 through to 2047 when it becomes the largest source of power only after lignite. During the same period, generation capacity of lignite increases marginally whilst hydro generation decreases sequencially.

Conclusion
Available data in the literature shows that GHGs remain the major contributors to the changing global climate whilst fossil-fueled power plants for energy production are the leading sources of GHGs. Energy utilization has also been cited as key contributor of GHGs in the atmosphere. Lignite emits the highest GHG on a lifecycle basis followed by coal-fueled power plants, oil and natural gas in that order.
In Ghana, transport, fossil source electric power and industrial combustion are the three leading CO 2 emission sources. Other sources include non-combustion and building. Curtailment CO 2 emission is deemed effective approach to dealing with the climate change problem, and this depends much on sustainable energy policy.
Ghana's rst nuclear power plant to be installed by the year 2029 with a starting generating capacity of 1000 MW. By the year 2047, generation and installed capacities for nuclear power would have reached 35% and 26%, respectively -being the highest energy generation in the country. Carbon dioxide emission without nuclear power in Ghana will cumulatively increase by 35% based on the current emission rate by the year 2039. However, with nuclear power in operation, CO 2 emission cuts by 12.5% by the year 2039.

Con ict of Interest
There are no con icts of interest to declare

Data availability statement
The manuscript has no associated data to provide. However, additional information have been provided as supplementary material.
3 . WNA -World Nuclear Association (2021). Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors. Accessed online.https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-ofplants/safety-of-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx. Research Square concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This map has been provided by the authors. Projection of nuclear power against other major sources in Ghana

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