Background. Dengue is endemic in over 100 countries and is an important public health problem worldwide. Dengue is not considered endemic in Taiwan however, with importation of dengue viruses from neighboring countries via close commercial links and air travel believed to be the cause of local outbreaks. Disease control efforts have therefore focused on preventing the importation of dengue into Taiwan. Here, we investigate the relationships between numbers of imported and indigenous dengue cases to test the validity of this strategy. Methods. Dengue-fever case data from between 2013 and 2018 was obtained from the surveillance systems of the Taiwan Center for Disease Control and Kaohsiung City Health department. Standard epidemiological data, including the monthly numbers of indigenous and imported dengue cases, was calculated. Potential associations between the number of indigenous and imported cases were investigated using correlation analyses. Results. We identified a possible relationship between the period of disease concealment and the number of reported imported dengue cases which resulted in indigenous dengue-fever epidemics within local communities. Further analysis of confirmed dengue cases during previous dengue-fever epidemics in Kaohsiung City found that the risk of indigenous dengue-fever may be related to the likelihood of patients suffering from imported cases of dengue-fever staying within local communities. Conclusion. Given the correlations found between imported and indigenous dengue-fever cases, as well as the relationship between disease concealment period and risk of indigenous dengue-fever, the major priorities for disease control remain prevention of disease importation and efficient identification of dengue cases within high-risk communities.

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Posted 17 Dec, 2019
On 17 Feb, 2020
Received 09 Feb, 2020
Received 09 Feb, 2020
On 26 Jan, 2020
On 24 Jan, 2020
Received 14 Dec, 2019
On 13 Dec, 2019
On 12 Dec, 2019
Invitations sent on 12 Dec, 2019
On 11 Dec, 2019
On 11 Dec, 2019
Received 02 Nov, 2019
On 02 Nov, 2019
On 24 Oct, 2019
On 22 Oct, 2019
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Received 12 Oct, 2019
On 06 Oct, 2019
Invitations sent on 06 Oct, 2019
On 06 Oct, 2019
On 26 Sep, 2019
On 26 Sep, 2019
On 23 Sep, 2019
Background. Dengue is endemic in over 100 countries and is an important public health problem worldwide. Dengue is not considered endemic in Taiwan however, with importation of dengue viruses from neighboring countries via close commercial links and air travel believed to be the cause of local outbreaks. Disease control efforts have therefore focused on preventing the importation of dengue into Taiwan. Here, we investigate the relationships between numbers of imported and indigenous dengue cases to test the validity of this strategy. Methods. Dengue-fever case data from between 2013 and 2018 was obtained from the surveillance systems of the Taiwan Center for Disease Control and Kaohsiung City Health department. Standard epidemiological data, including the monthly numbers of indigenous and imported dengue cases, was calculated. Potential associations between the number of indigenous and imported cases were investigated using correlation analyses. Results. We identified a possible relationship between the period of disease concealment and the number of reported imported dengue cases which resulted in indigenous dengue-fever epidemics within local communities. Further analysis of confirmed dengue cases during previous dengue-fever epidemics in Kaohsiung City found that the risk of indigenous dengue-fever may be related to the likelihood of patients suffering from imported cases of dengue-fever staying within local communities. Conclusion. Given the correlations found between imported and indigenous dengue-fever cases, as well as the relationship between disease concealment period and risk of indigenous dengue-fever, the major priorities for disease control remain prevention of disease importation and efficient identification of dengue cases within high-risk communities.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
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