Sub-division Level Temperature Patterns and Trends Across East-Coast Industrial Corridor, India

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-623812/v1

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Sub-division Level Temperature Patterns and Trends Across East-Coast Industrial Corridor, India

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-623812/v1

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Temperature patterns and trends influence many sectors. The newly planned industrial corridors will have to consider the variations in temperature and other climatic parameters. The present article aims to investigate the patterns and trends of maximum and minimum temperature at the Sub-division (sub-district) level. We analyse annual and seasonal temperature data from 1958 to 2018 for the India’s first east-coast corridor, the Visakhapatnam–Chennai industrial corridor (VCIC) using a combination of Getis–Ord–Gi and Mann–Kendall trend test for spatiotemporal patterns and trends. The results show domination of intensifying hot spots across the VCIC and an overall increase in both maximum and minimum temperature for annual (0.013 ^oC/y and 0.011 ^oC/y) and seasonal trends. However, the variations of pattern and trends are unambiguous within districts. There is a clear distinction in patterns and trends between southern and north-eastern districts, indicating the need for localised planning. As the industrial areas are planned at a microlevel, such studies will enable planners and decision-makers to plan and prioritise site-specific climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in industrial and urban areas.

Climatology

Climate Analysis and Modeling

Temperature Patterns

East-Coast Industrial Corridor

Visakhapatnam–Chennai industrial corridor (VCIC)

Table 1

Definition of different types of spatiotemporal patterns

Pattern Name	Definition
New HS / CS.	A statistically significant HS / CS ONLY for the series' last time step.
Consecutive HS / CS	A location with a single continuous run of statistically significant HS / CS bins in the last time-step interval. Prior to the last HS / CS run, the location has not been a statistically significant HS / CS, and fewer than 90% of all bins are statistically significant HS / CSs.
Intensifying HS / CS	A statistically significant HS/CS for more than 55 years of 61 years (> 90% ) of the time-step intervals, including the final time step. Furthermore, at each time step, the intensity of clustering of high / low numbers is growing, and this rise is statistically significant.
Persistent HS / CS	A location that for 55 out of 61 years (> 90 percent) of the time intervals, has been statistically significant, with no apparent increase or decrease in trend.
Diminishing HS / CS	A region that for 55 of the 61 years (>90 percent) has a statistically significant HS / CS interval, including the last phase. Moreover, the strength of clustering decreases significantly in every stage and HS / CS is statistically significant in recent years.
Sporadic HS / CS	The location where the HS/CS is always shifting. Less than 55 of 61 years (<90%) have been statistically HS / CSs.
Oscillating HS / CS	A statistically significant HS / CS for the final interval and at a previous time step. Less than 55 of the 61 time-step intervals (or 90 percent) were statistically significant HS/CSs.
Historical HS / CS	Although the last time period is not HS / CS, at least 55 of the 61 years (90 percent ) of the time-step intervals exhibit statistically significant HS / CSs.
No Pattern Detected.	It does not fit into any of the HS or CS categories defined above.

Table 2

Comparison of Trends in Maximum and Minimum Temperature with other authors

No.

Authors

Scale

Annual (^oC/y)

Winter (^oC/y)

Pre-Monsoon (^oC/y)

Monsoon (^oC/y)

Post Monsoon (^oC/y)

Time

Spatial

Tmax

Tmin

Tmax

Tmin

Tmax

Tmin

Tmax

Tmin

Tmax

Tmin

Present Study

1958-2018

VCIC

0.013***

0.011***

0.015***

0.009*

0.01***

0.009***

0.015***

0.01***

0.016***

0.015***

Nengzouzam et al., 2019

1969-2005

Southern India

-0.01-0.02

0-0.02

Mondal et al., 2015

1901-2007

East Coast

+ NS

0.004

+NS

Jhajharia et al., 2014

1961-2004

Kakinada

+NS

Nidadavole

-NS

Subash & Sikka, 2014

1904-2003

East Coast

0.0067

0.0039

0.01

0.0068

0.0056

0.0042

0.0033 NS

0.0011 NS

0.0103

0.0052

Jeganathan & Andimuthu, 2014

1951-2010

Chennai

0.016

0.01

Sonali & Nagesh Kumar, 2013

1901-2003

East Coast

0.0023 NS

0.0047

0.0099

0.0033 NS

0.0033NS

0.0067

0.0058

1948-2003

0.0171

0.0046NS

0.0152

0.0059 NS

0.02

0.0122

0.0051

0.0044 NS

0.0150

0.0053 NS

1970-2003

0.0214 NS

0.0077NS

0.025

0.0087 NS

0.022 NS

0.025

0.0173

0.0125 NS

-0.008 NS

Arora et al., 2005

1941-1999

Southern India

K. R. Kumar et al., 1994

1901-1987

East Coast

0.005-0.01

• Test results at 5% significance unless specified.

• Wherever the slope range is given, it is mentioned.

• Wherever the slope range is not given, it is shown as + as increasing, 0 as No trend and - as decreasing.

• NS is Not Statistically Significant

• *** indicates statistically significant at 99%. ** indicates statistically significant at 95% and * indicates statistically significant at 90%

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Sub-division Level Temperature Patterns and Trends Across East-Coast Industrial Corridor, India

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