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Introduction: China is facing substantial risks of imported COVID-19 cases and a domestic resurgence in the long run, and COVID-19 vaccination is expected to be the long-lasting solution to end the pandemic. We aim to estimate the size of the target population for COVID-19 vaccination at the provincial level and summarize the current progress of vaccination programs, which could support local governments in the timely determination and adjustment of vaccination policies and promotional measures.
Methods: By extracting provincial-stratified data from publicly available sources, we estimated the size of priority target groups for vaccination programs and further characterized the ongoing COVID-19 vaccination program at the provincial level, including the total doses administered, the coverage rate, and the vaccination capacity needed to achieve the target coverage of 70%.
Results: The size of the target population shows large differences among provinces, ranging from 3.5 million to 115.2 million. As of June 10, the speed of vaccine roll-out differs remarkably as well, with the highest coverage occurring in Beijing and Shanghai, where 69.8% and 62.3% of the population is fully vaccinated, respectively. However, in 19 of 31 provinces, less than 40% of the population was administered at least one dose, in 9 of which the proportion was even less than 30%. Compared to the routine vaccination capacity before the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 vaccination capacity has greatly improved. Nevertheless, the current vaccination capacity is far lower than the target of 70% coverage by the end of 2021 or by mid-2022 in approximately 5%-20% of provinces, particularly the Guizhou, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Fujian and Hebei provinces.
Conclusions: Large disparities exist in the target population size and vaccination progress across provinces in China. Vaccine coverage is far from meeting the herd immunity threshold, and the vaccination service capacity needs to be further improved.
Keywords
Novel coronavirus disease 2019, vaccination, target population, China
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This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- Additionalfile10611.docx
Additional file 1: Table S1. Definitions of priority target groups for the COVID-19 vaccination program. Table S2. The size of each target population for the COVID-19 vaccination program in provinces. Table S3. The size of the target population for the COVID-19 vaccination program by vaccination goals. Figure S1. Three geographic regions of mainland China. Figure S2. The size of ten priority groups for the COVID-19 vaccination program in provinces, decreased by the total population. Figure S3. Scatter plots between the size of target population groups and the total population. Figure S4. Based on the average capacity after mid-April 2021, service capacity gaps to vaccinate 70% of the target population by the end of 2021 or by mid-2022.
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CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 22 Jun, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 11 Aug, 2021
Review #3 received
Received 31 Jul, 2021
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 22 Jul, 2021
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 20 Jul, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 22 Jun, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 22 Jun, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Jun, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 19 Jun, 2021
Reviews received
Received 19 Jun, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 16 Jun, 2021
Editor assigned
On 15 Jun, 2021
Submission checks complete
On 15 Jun, 2021
Editor invited
On 15 Jun, 2021
First submitted
On 14 Jun, 2021
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Infectious Diseases
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A new preprint design is coming!
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This preprint is under consideration at Infectious Diseases of Poverty. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 22 Jun, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 11 Aug, 2021
Review #3 received
Received 31 Jul, 2021
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 22 Jul, 2021
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 20 Jul, 2021
Review #1 received
Received 22 Jun, 2021
Review #2 received
Received 22 Jun, 2021
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 21 Jun, 2021
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 19 Jun, 2021
Reviews received
Received 19 Jun, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 16 Jun, 2021
Editor assigned
On 15 Jun, 2021
Submission checks complete
On 15 Jun, 2021
Editor invited
On 15 Jun, 2021
First submitted
On 14 Jun, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Introduction: China is facing substantial risks of imported COVID-19 cases and a domestic resurgence in the long run, and COVID-19 vaccination is expected to be the long-lasting solution to end the pandemic. We aim to estimate the size of the target population for COVID-19 vaccination at the provincial level and summarize the current progress of vaccination programs, which could support local governments in the timely determination and adjustment of vaccination policies and promotional measures.
Methods: By extracting provincial-stratified data from publicly available sources, we estimated the size of priority target groups for vaccination programs and further characterized the ongoing COVID-19 vaccination program at the provincial level, including the total doses administered, the coverage rate, and the vaccination capacity needed to achieve the target coverage of 70%.
Results: The size of the target population shows large differences among provinces, ranging from 3.5 million to 115.2 million. As of June 10, the speed of vaccine roll-out differs remarkably as well, with the highest coverage occurring in Beijing and Shanghai, where 69.8% and 62.3% of the population is fully vaccinated, respectively. However, in 19 of 31 provinces, less than 40% of the population was administered at least one dose, in 9 of which the proportion was even less than 30%. Compared to the routine vaccination capacity before the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 vaccination capacity has greatly improved. Nevertheless, the current vaccination capacity is far lower than the target of 70% coverage by the end of 2021 or by mid-2022 in approximately 5%-20% of provinces, particularly the Guizhou, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Fujian and Hebei provinces.
Conclusions: Large disparities exist in the target population size and vaccination progress across provinces in China. Vaccine coverage is far from meeting the herd immunity threshold, and the vaccination service capacity needs to be further improved.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- Additionalfile10611.docx
Additional file 1: Table S1. Definitions of priority target groups for the COVID-19 vaccination program. Table S2. The size of each target population for the COVID-19 vaccination program in provinces. Table S3. The size of the target population for the COVID-19 vaccination program by vaccination goals. Figure S1. Three geographic regions of mainland China. Figure S2. The size of ten priority groups for the COVID-19 vaccination program in provinces, decreased by the total population. Figure S3. Scatter plots between the size of target population groups and the total population. Figure S4. Based on the average capacity after mid-April 2021, service capacity gaps to vaccinate 70% of the target population by the end of 2021 or by mid-2022.
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