We studied longitudinal plasma samples from 40 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, relative to declared onset of symptoms (Table 1). Because the patients were not treated with immunomodulatory drugs, the results reflect the natural course of their disease. Based on oxygen levels and ICU requirements, the disease-status of 25 patients was classified as moderate and they were treated in the hospital ward (hereafter non-ICU). Conversely, 15 patients were classified as severe and were treated in the ICU (Supplementary Fig 1A). Blood plasma samples were collected from most patients on almost every day of hospitalization. As the mean age of COVID-19 patients was 66 years (range 21-92 years), we compared their results to negative controls mostly comprising individuals over 60 years old. In some instances, we additionally studied a small group of SARS-CoV-2+ mild COVID-19 patients who attended the emergency medical department, but who were not hospitalized.
Blood inflammation markers and cell proportions
Compared to healthy control levels (<5 mg/L), the CRP levels of ICU patients were highly elevated upon hospital admission (mean ~100 mg/L), being already significantly greater than the non-ICU cohort, and this difference continued to grow during the disease course (peak mean value of ~225 mg/L, versus ~95 mg/L for non-ICU) (Supplementary Fig 1B). The PCT levels were more comparable across the ICU/non-ICU cohorts at admission, but they too reached higher levels among ICU patients during their hospitalization (Supplementary Fig 1C). Consistent with other reports, most patients had markedly decreased lymphocyte representation, and increased neutrophil representation, with peak lymphocytopenia and neutrophil frequencies being more extreme in the ICU cohort relative to the non-ICU cohort (Supplementary Fig 1D-G). Both the ICU and non-ICU cohorts displayed comparable and decreased blood basophil (Supplementary Fig 1H) and eosinophil (Supplementary Fig 1I) frequencies upon hospitalization, and those low levels were sustained over the disease course.
Antibody trajectories to S1, S2, RBD and N proteins.
We used the LIPS method 22 to analyze antibody responses to S1, S2 (two subunits of Spike protein), RBD, and N protein, which we previously showed to correlate well with the ELISA method as reported earlier 21. All ICU and non-ICU patients developed IgG antibodies to S1, S2, N and RBD proteins during their hospitalization (Fig 1A-D). The seroconversion of the COVID-19 patients occurred 12 to 15 days after symptom onset, with an average of 13 days from the start of the disease (medians 15, 13, 12 and 13 days for S1, S2, RBD IgG and N, respectively; Fig 1E), although overall there was considerable variation in seroconversion kinetics, ranging from 5 to 25 days. Anti-RBD antibodies tended to appear 1-2 days earlier than the antibodies to the three other proteins. We found no significant difference in seroconversion times between non-ICU and ICU cohorts but noted several early antibody responders among non-ICU patients, but none among the ICU patients (Fig 1F). Following seroconversion, the antibody levels to the four proteins analyzed peaked at around 18-22 days. Although individual antibody levels varied considerably, the non-ICU patients tended to reach peak levels earlier, whereas the ICU patients peaked later but at higher levels, an observation that needs to be viewed in the context of the greater time-period over which plasma from the ICU cohort could be sampled (Fig 1G).
We found high anti-RBD levels among the ICU patients, suggesting strong virus-neutralizing immune responses; tested 15 ICU plasma for their capacity to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 virus; and correlated the titration results to LIPS values measuring antibodies to S1, S2, RBD and N proteins (Fig 1E). Thirteen of those ICU patients developed a neutralization titer of 1:640, 4 of whom had titers of >1280. Microneutralization titers correlated well with IgG RBD (r=0.7) and S1 (r=0.73) (Fig 1H) 23, and increased over time in 9 of 11 (82%) patients analyzed (Fig 1I).
All patients, for whom we had plasma samples for a longer period than the first 11 days, developed systemic anti-RBD IgA antibodies, albeit to varying levels, and those antibodies also correlated well with IgG anti-RBD antibodies (Fig 1J), and with virus neutralization (Fig 1H). There was no significant difference between ICU and non-ICU groups (Fig 1K), although the ICU group tended to have more patients with higher levels of RBD IgA antibodies (6 out of 11 ICU versus 3 out of 18 non-ICU patients for which IgA antibody data were available), and stronger correlations with RBD IgG antibodies (Fig 1J and 1H). The seroconversion of IgA RBD antibodies occurred at the same time of anti-IgG RBD (median 12 days) (Fig 1N), and tended to be earlier in the non-ICU cohort (median 10 vs 13 days) (Fig 1M), albeit that the ICU cohort developed higher anti-RBD IgA levels (Fig 1M).
We also studied the activation of the classical complement pathway in COVID-19 patients by measuring two complement components, C1q and terminal complement complex (TCC). Although COVID-19 patients in general tended to have higher levels of C1q, this difference was not significant (Supplementary Fig 2A), and there was no difference in TCC levels (Supplementary Fig 2B).
Early stage inflammatory mediators
We applied Olink and Legendplex technologies to undertake a targeted proteomic analysis of individual soluble inflammation-associated proteins and their corresponding correlations in COVID-19 patients. The Olink proximity extension assay (PEA) revealed a significant change of inflammation-associated plasma markers when comparing ICU and non-ICU groups with SARS-CoV-2 negative controls. In ICU and non-ICU patients, we observed increased levels of a triad of IL-6, IL-10, and CXCL10 (also known as IP10). Levels peaked within 24-72 hours after hospitalization (i.e. ~10 days after initial symptom onset), but declined thereafter before patient discharge, with the possible exception of IL-6 which remained high in several ICU patients after an initial decrease (Fig 2A-C). As was recently noted 4, the IL-6 – IL-10 – CXCL10 triad showed striking correlations with disease severity and the levels of these analytes were elevated in the great majority of hospitalized COVID19 patients, attesting to a highly inflammatory response to the virus.
Other prominent inflammation-associated markers, upregulated at the early stage of disease in ICU and non-ICU patients, were CXCL11, CCL2, CCL7, CCL8, PD-L1, and IL-18R1 (Fig 2D-J). IFNg, which is an activator of CXCL10, CXCL11, CXCL9, and other interferon-stimulated genes, was also elevated in the early stages of disease and declined over time, but the analysis of IFNg was complicated by considerable inter-individual variation among healthy controls (Fig 2E and 2K). Nonetheless, while hospital admission levels of the cited cytokines and chemokines were highly variable, there was a constancy to their decline in both patient cohorts, particularly for IFNg, CCL7, IL-6 and CXCL10 (Fig 2K). Although the PCA plot with the 10 markers measured at the early stage of the disease did not segregate ICU and non-ICU groups, there was some separation from the mild cohort (Fig 2L). Of note, this group of cytokines and chemokines collectively composes a set of well-established inflammation markers associated with activated myeloid and T cells, that may be highly germane to reports of myeloid and T cell dysregulation in COVID-19.
Sustained markers related to apoptosis and inflammation
Possibly in relation to the overt subset-selective T apoptosis reported for COVID-19 24, we found significantly increased and sustained levels of plasma markers associated with apoptosis. Among these, we observed consistent increases in the levels of CASP8, TNFSF14 and TGFB1, three biomarkers established to be related to inflammation combined with apoptosis. The fourth top upregulated marker, HGF, is best characterized in relation to anti-apoptotic function, possibly reflecting a negative feedback mechanism (Fig 3A-C). Their levels were already elevated at hospitalization, were in almost every case significantly greater in the ICU cohort compared to severe and mild patients, and were sustained over the disease course (Fig 3A-C). Indeed, the capacity of HGF to largely discriminate ICU from non-ICU patients was observed over the complete time-course of sampling (Fig 3C).
Additional plasma proteins with similar patterns included markers such as Oncostatin M (OSM), S100A12, IL-7, CCL23, VEGFA and CSF-1 (Fig 3D-J). Notwithstanding some very considerable overlap, a PCA of the average values of the 10 cited markers seemed more efficient at segregating the ICU and non-ICU cohorts examined in this study than did the collection of cytokines and chemokines activated at early disease (Fig 3K). This may reflect their different patterns of regulation in COVID-19, and argues for the measurement of apoptosis-related proteins in other, independent cohorts.
To validate the PEA (Olink) profiling, we compared ICU, non-ICU and mild-disease patients by Legendplex assay. This confirmed severity-associated increases levels of the triad of IL-6, CXCL10, and IL-10, and provided some evidence of TNF upregulation (Supplementary Fig 3A-M). Moreover, the analysis also confirmed the decline of IL-6, CXCL10, IL-10 and IFNg cytokine levels in both the ICU and non-ICU cohorts over time, and the lack of convincing segregation in PCA plot (Supplementary Fig 3N-O). In short, the results of the two plasma protein screening platforms cross-validated (Supplementary Fig 4). We further tested 2 soluble proteins, sCD25 and sCD14, that reflect activated immune cells and are commonly upregulated in in sepsis. Indeed, seemingly reflective of dynamic immune responses, we found increased peak levels of sCD25, shed by T cells, and sCD14, shed by macrophages and monocytes in ICU and non-ICU patients (Supplementary Fig 5A-B), which clustered together but not with early-stage inflammatory markers (Supplementary Fig 5C).
Discrete immune marker clusters segregate COVID-19 patients.
Since the proteomic analysis of secreted proteins suggested distinct patterns of regulation, we performed a cluster analysis of all PEA (Olink) profiling markers that were altered in ICU and non-ICU patients (Fig 4A). We found 7 clusters of plasma proteins that segregated based on Spearman correlations. As anticipated, the clustering analysis confirmed a strong correlation between early-stage inflammatory markers, forming a discrete profile of IL-6, IL-10, CXCL10, CXCL11, IFNg, CCL2, CCL7, CCL8, IL-18, IL-18R1 and PD-L1. We also observed a cluster containing HGF, TNFSF14, S100A12 and OSM. In contrast, CASP8 clustered separately, together with EIF4EBP1, SIRT2 and STAMBP and also with TGFB1 and IL-7. Strikingly, TRANCE showed a strong negative correlation with most of the early-stage inflammatory markers indicating an opposite trend of this marker in COVID-19 pathogenesis.
The correlations were disease-associated as they were different in healthy controls. Moreover, the samples collected at the beginning of hospitalization manifested a substantially greater degree of systemic inflammation, exemplified by the strong correlation between CXCL10, CXCL11, IFNg and PD-L1 when compared to samples collected during the disease course or immediately prior to discharge (Fig 4B-M). This suggests the potential of admission levels of certain analytes to be prognostic of subsequent disease course, as has been recently proposed 4 5. Such risk-based patient stratification might be further improved by assessments of markers with strong disease-associated correlations, e.g. between HGF and TNFSF14, and between IL-6 with CASP8 and HGF (Fig 4H, J, M). Indeed, some of the strong correlations reflect associations between related family members mediating immune-stromal crosstalk such as that between IL-6 and LIF (Fig 4E), and that between IL-6 and OSM.
Distinct immunotype in ICU patients
The patients with severe disease displayed stronger upregulation of discrete inflammation and apoptotic markers suggesting distinct immunotypes that might relate to disease characteristics and outcomes. To determine whether patients with severe COVID-19 could be categorized based on their expression of secreted proteins, we conducted clustering analysis using patients’ marker measurements at their peak levels. At least 4 disease subgroup clusters emerged (Fig 5). The two top patient clusters, including most of the ICU patients were represented by the strongest activation of multiple cytokines and chemokines, and were most segregated by HGF, OSM, S100A12 and CCL7. Strikingly, the most prominent distinct immunotype was present among three patients diagnosed with ARDS (COVID4, COVID7, and COVID38) and one patient who died (COVID49). The presence of ICU-specific immunotypes may usefully reflect accelerated inflammatory responses and pathophysiological mechanisms in subgroups of severe patients, which may require tailored immunomodulatory treatment strategies.