In recent decades, there have been many improvements in laboratory medicine. However, it is difficult to determine the significance of changes between two consecutive laboratory results. Obviously, many laboratory results have variability in many aspects, including pre-analytical, analytical, and post-analytical factors [1–6]. Thus, clinicians, as well as laboratory physicians, should be aware of the potential risk of false interpretation.
Together with these confounding factors, biological variation is an important factor to consider when interpreting the changes in serial laboratory measurements. The term “biological variation” represents the physiological and metabolic properties according to the diverse status of healthy or non-healthy individuals and reflects fluctuations in serial measurements [7–9].
Comparing the changes in serial laboratory results is important for assessing the clinical status of a patient and responsiveness to therapy as well as predicting the point when additional interventions are necessary [6–11]. Conventional reference intervals (RIs) may also provide information about these points, but they are often of limited value [2, 11–13]. For analytes with a large RI, two consecutive results may be within the RI even if they differ significantly. In addition, when one of two consecutive results is outside the RI and another is inside, the clinical decision can be mistaken [11]. For these reasons, monitoring changes in serial laboratory results can be more helpful than conventional RIs in actual clinical situations [10]. Moreover, the decision limit should be set based on the individual properties of an analyte, factors associated with pre- and post-analysis, medical need, and clinical decision point [6].
For tumor markers, monitoring changes also plays an important role in patient management. The increasing interest in tumor markers as a less-invasive diagnostic tool for determining malignancy has encouraged their clinical use along with other diagnostic tools [2, 13]. Ideal tumor markers should reflect early detection, a differential diagnosis, response to therapy, prognosis, and progression or recurrence of malignancy and provide accurate and reliable results [9]. However, the changes in tumor marker values can show wide fluctuations over time and can be difficult to access. The analytical uncertainty and unreliability of tumor marker values determined by different methods are also obstacles for access [1, 2]. Moreover, there are no uniform or standardized criteria for determining the clinical significance of a difference between two consecutive marker results [3, 14]. Hence, it is difficult to set decision limits for interpreting the clinical significance of changes in tumor markers.
In clinical chemistry, biological variation is an important concept for explaining the variability of serial laboratory results. Biological variation includes analytical variation and within- and between-subject variation, thus, reflecting the variation of each analyte [10, 12]. Moreover, numerous studies have examined the biological variations in tumor markers [1–3, 9, 13, 14]. One widely used evaluation tool based on biological variation is the reference change value (RCV), which has been used to interpret changes in serial laboratory results [8, 10, 11, 15] and as a criterion for delta check and auto-verification [4, 16–18]. However, RCV is a one-sided comparison method and still has limitations for analytes with a large intra-individual variation [11, 18].
When comparing two independent values, the confidence interval (CI) assigns a statistical significance for each value [19, 20]. The CI indicates a range of values that is likely to contain the parameter of interest with a specified probability, most often 95%. In two-sided comparison, the CIs for two certain values may overlap if they are not significantly different. In our previous study, we introduced the concept of CI into the interpretation of our clinical chemistry results [21].
To be best of our knowledge, there is no decision limit yet for conducting a delta check of tumor markers. Furthermore, there is no study regarding the association of overlapping CIs and laboratory results. In this study, we aimed to (i) apply overlapping CIs to interpret changes in two consecutive tumor marker values, (ii) estimate the clinical significance in each tumor marker, and (iii) consider the possibility of practical clinical application in routine clinical laboratories.