Seismic Site Characterization and Liquefaction Susceptibility Assesment of Dhaka City Using Latest Building Code and Updated Liquefaction Evaluation Techniques

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Seismic Site Characterization and Liquefaction Susceptibility Assesment of Dhaka City Using Latest Building Code and Updated Liquefaction Evaluation Techniques

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-678413/v1

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Integration of regional code-based provisions and updated analytical techniques is a must in the field of seismic site characterization and liquefaction susceptibility assessment. Mapping seismic site class and liquefaction susceptible zones due to earthquake induced loading under the research will not only facilitate governing authorities and policy makers to make land-use developmental plans according to characteristics of each classified zone but, will also help engineers and researchers to carry out feasibility study of projects and designs as well as research activities according to potential risk factor in different areas of Dhaka City. The study also supplements the newly published Bangladesh National Building Code (2020) and provides guidelines according to the code to conduct engineering studies as per recommended seismic site class and liquefaction susceptibility for design considerations following the newly published mandates. The research is also a part of development of geotechnical database and earthquake catalog of Dhaka City with an aim to update the geological information due to unbridled expansion of the city boundary where areas are being filled with dredged sand to get more land coverage for infrastructural developmental activities.

Civil Engineering

Earthquake

Liquefaction

Shear Wave Velocity

Dhaka City

BNBC 2020

Seismic soil liquefaction is a phenomenon of special concern for cities going through rapid urbanization process where low lying lands are being filled up with sand as a part of expansion process. Dhaka city, the capital of Bangladesh and the most densely populated mega-city of the world, is largely an alluvial plain consisting of fine sand and silt deposits with shallow ground water table. The past historical records coupled with recent low to moderate magnitude earthquakes near Dhaka are indications of its earthquake source and vulnerability [1]. The process by which a granular material undergoing a transition from a solid state to a liquefied state because of an increase in the pore water pressure is referred to as liquefaction [2]. Ground deformation takes place as an aftermath of cyclic mobility due to static and dynamic pressure.

Damages that can be ascribed to the phenomena of earthquake-induced liquefaction have resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of costs for society [3]. Furthermore, most soil improvement techniques are not always feasible for large area associated with probability of liquefaction hence, accurate soil liquefaction prediction is necessary for safe foundation engineering practices and post-earthquake emergency evacuation design in liquefaction prone areas.

In the recent past, liquefaction susceptibility maps have become very popular in the context of planning perspective to identify vulnerable zones in large areas where the severity of liquefaction induced failure is indicated by liquefaction potential index. For depiction of seismic site class and liquefaction susceptibility of a specific area it is not always possible to carry out investigation at all foundation support locations due to time as well as budget constraint. Therefore, for sustainable land use management using optimal utilization of resources development of digital soil maps have grown interest amongst the mass in the recent few decades. Many advances were made in soil mapping and cartography in both Europe and the United States, and the soil profile concept was developed [4].The ability to collect environmental covariates with proximal and remote sensing coupled with spatial statistics and other numerical techniques allowed greater detail in the mapping of soil properties as well as better quantification of those properties [5]. Accordingly, an attempt has been made to interpret liquefaction susceptibility and seismic site characteristics of soils within the boundary of Dhaka City using the latest SPT based empirical equations developed by Cetin et al. [6] coupled with provisions of the newly published Bangladesh National Building Code 2020 [7].

The current study is the first approach after publication of new BNBC 2020 [7] to integrate code-based provisions for seismic site characterization and liquefaction hazard assessment. This research will open new dimensions for application of site specification stress reduction factors in liquefaction susceptibility assessment using latest SPT based deterministic liquefaction evaluation methods. The outcome of the study will also help investors and policy makers of the country to plan for infrastructural developmental works according to classified zones in terms of seismic characteristics and liquefaction vulnerability which is also expected to contribute to plan and design sustainable and economically feasible infrastructures in Dhaka City.

Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is the world’s most densely populated country having a population density of more than 30,000 people per square kilometer [8]. The city’s expansion has taken space haphazardly in the past few decades. About 10% of Bangladesh's population which contributes to 36% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) lives in Dhaka metropolitan area.

Dhaka City is located close to the seismically active convergent plate boundary between the Eurasian and the Indian plates where lots of seismically active faults exist. The Himalayan System (product of Eurasian plate) and Arakan – Indo subduction collision system (product of Indo – Burma plate) are the two major tectonic systems that have the potential to produce large earthquakes in the Bengal Basin and expected to cause damage to Dhaka city as well. [9]. Major severe earthquakes that caused severe damage in Bangladesh as per CDMP [10] report is shown in Table 1

Earthquake	Year	Magnitude	Distance from Dhaka
Cachar	1869	7.5	250km
Bengal	1885	7.0	170km
Great Indian	1897	8.7	230km
Srimangal	1918	7.6	150km
Dubri	1930	7.1	250km
Bihar-Nepal	1934	8.3	510km

Apart from the Bengal and Sri-mangal earthquake most events had epicenters beyond 200km buffer zone from the study area. However, the latest earthquake catalogue (from 1762 to 2022) of more than 5 magnitude earthquake conforms to the claims of seismic activities near the northeast and southeast parts of Bangladesh which likely to have a major effect on Dhaka as well (Fig. 1). Studies carried out under Comprehensive Disaster Management program [10] also confirms that Dhaka is amongst the highest risk cities in terms of severity of the damage. A recent study predicted that in Dhaka City about 270,604 buildings (83% of the total buildings) will be moderately damaged and out of them, about 238,164 buildings (which was 73% of the total buildings) will be damaged beyond repair for a scenario earthquake of 7.5 magnitude occurred at about 50 km far from city center [10].

The majority of Dhaka city is partly on the elevated Pleistocene terrace (Madhupur Terrace) having a maximum elevation of 14 m and partly on the Holocene floodplains having a minimum elevation of 2 m.

Considering geological, geotechnical as well as geomorphological properties Dhaka can be categorized into six surface geological units which are as follows: Pleistocene Terrace Deposition, Holocene Terrace Deposition, Holocene Alluvium Deposition, Holocene Alluvial Valley Fill Deposit, Holocene Alluvial Channel Deposit and Artificial Fill [11] (Fig. 2).

The Pleistocene deposit is the oldest deposit within the city boundary, and it mainly covers the central part of the region. It is mainly composed of yellowish brown to reddish brown, stiff to very stiff clayey silt, silty clay and medium dense to dense silty sand. The Holocene deposit consists of dark grey to grey, very soft to soft silty clay, clayey silt, and grey to yellowish brown, very loose to medium dense silty sand. On the other hand, some low-lying marshy areas near the eastern fringes and outskirts of the city area has been filled with dredged river sand from nearby river using hydraulic deposition system. The artificial fill is composed of grey, very soft to soft clayey silt, very loose to loose silty sand and sand. Considering potential risks due to earthquakes, the artificially filled areas are lying in a danger zone in terms of liquefaction vulnerability.

The dataset used under the current study supersedes previous datasets used in the past [12–13] for seismic site characterization and liquefaction hazard assessments. 224 nos. of high quality SPT drilling data where the author’s themselves were directly involved were used for the research within the period of 2015–2022 which included major ongoing projects such as Dhaka Metro Rail Project, Dhaka Sub-Way Project, Amulia – Demra Expressway Project etc. where usage of hydraulic rotary was ensured during the drilling operations. The dataset used by Zillur [11] was also merged with the dataset of the recent investigations as a part of overall upgradation process of the database.

In addition, 48 nos. of Seismic Cone Penetration Test data were included for seismic site characterization based on Vs₃₀ evaluation. The Seismic Cone Penetration Test is one of the newest multi-measurement tools for field investigation consisting of a seismic sensor for the registration of the shear wave propagation velocity (Vs)

Earthquake induced liquefaction phenomena have been recorded and developed in many parts of the world [3, 14, 15]. The methods of liquefaction susceptibility analysis and mapping have further been modified, improved, calibrated and validated by many researchers [16, 17, 18]. Dhaka City is located close to seismically active zone. The eastern, western, southeastern parts of the city are covered by the Holocene sand, silty sand, silty clay, sandy- and clayey-silt up to more than 20 m depth from the ground surface. Even though past studies have been carried out for development of liquefaction potential maps of Dhaka City by different researchers [11, 13]. However, the studies lacked the use of high-quality data and did not reflect on the methodology adopted for development of the maps. In addition, for assessing Liquefaction susceptibility the previous researchers used NCEER workshop [3] and Youd’s [15] guidelines which is currently outdated as the latest databases used by Boulanger [20, 21] and Cetin [6, 19] included more case histories. Therefore, in this study, an attempt was taken to prepare a seismically induced liquefaction hazard map as well as seismic site classification map of Dhaka City Corporation area based on the most updated SPT based method liquefaction susceptibility assessment method developed by Cetin [6] integrating it with provisions of BNBC 2020 [7] for evaluating liquefaction potential and site classification using shear wave velocity data.

5.1 Seismic Site Characterization as per provisions of BNBC 2020

BNBC 2020 [7] provides guidelines for estimation of seismic site class according to shear wave velocity of upper 30m of the site profile. For our evaluation we used Wair’s [22] SPT based co-relationship for estimation of shear wave velocity for specific soil layers. The correlation suggested by Wair et. al [22] is as follows.

$$\text{V}\text{s}=30 {{\text{N}}_{60} }^{0.215}{{{\sigma }}_{\text{v}} }^{0.275}$$

The age scaling factor for Pleistocene and Holocene deposition suggested for the equation is 1.13 and 0.87 respectively.

In addition to SPT based evaluation of shear wave velocity additional shear wave data from Seismic Cone Penetration Test conducted for Dhaka Sub-way project was also included for estimation of Vs₃₀. Average soil property has been determined by using the following Eq. 2

$$\stackrel{-}{\text{V}\text{s}}=\frac{{\sum }_{\text{i}=1}^{\text{n}}\text{d}\text{i}}{{\sum }_{\text{i}=1}^{\text{n}}\text{d}\text{i}/\text{V}\text{s}\text{i}}$$

Where, di = soil layer thickness of layer i, n = number of soil layer in upper 30m and Vsi = Shear wave velocity of i layer

The seismic site class property as per provision of BNBC 2020 using shear wave velocity data of upper 30m soil layer is as follows: SA for shear wave velocity > 800 m/s, SB for shear wave velocity within the range of 360 ˗ 800 m/s, SC for shear wave velocity within the range of 180–360 m/s and SD for shear wave velocity < 180 m/s

5.2 Evaluation of Liquefaction Susceptibility

The original simplified procedure for predicting liquefaction resistance of soils [14] was developed by using the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) blow counts correlated with a parameter representing the seismic loading on the soil, called cyclic stress ratio (CSR). The load induced by earthquake (CSR) and resistance against liquefaction (CRR) are variables which compared while evaluating factor of safety against liquefaction. A magnitude scaling factor is multiplied for earthquakes having magnitude of more or, less than 7.5.

$${\text{F}}_{\text{L}}=\frac{{\text{C}\text{R}\text{R}}_{7.5}}{\text{C}\text{S}\text{R}}\bullet \text{M}\text{S}\text{F}$$

For calculation of cyclic stress ratio, the following Eq. 4 is used.

$$\text{C}\text{S}\text{R}=\left(\frac{{{\tau }}_{\text{a}\text{v}}}{{{\sigma }}_{{\text{v}}_{0}}^{{\prime }}}\right)=0\cdot 65\left(\frac{{\text{a}}_{\text{m}\text{a}\text{x}}}{\text{g}}\right)\left(\frac{{{\sigma }}_{{\text{v}}_{0}}}{{{\sigma }}_{{\text{v}}_{0}}^{{\prime }}}\right)\cdot {\text{r}}_{\text{d}}$$

Since, the inception stage the stress reduction factor, r_d used for evaluating cyclic stress ratio went through lot of upgradations as different researchers used updated database from time to time and introduced new equations. Stress reduction factor is a site-specific parameter which depends on different factors such as depth, dynamic characteristics of soil as well as ground motion characteristics [23]. For our study, we used BNBC 2020 [7] recommended stress reduction factor considering local perspectives which is shown in Eq. 5

$${\text{r}}_{\text{d}}=1-0.015 \text{z}$$

Where, z is the depth of soil column in meters.

Peak ground acceleration value, PGA for respective boreholes have been calculated according to the provisions of BNBC 2020. BNBC 2020 characterizes seismic site class based on estimation of average shear wave velocity, Vs₃₀ for top 30m of the soil layer. If Vs₃₀ is less than 180m/s then the site is being classified as SC and if the value is greater than 180m/s then it is classified as SD. The seismic zone co-efficient (Z) for Dhaka city according to BNBC 2020 is 0.2 which is the value for maximum credible earthquake having a return period of 2475 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The surface PGA value considering site amplification scenarios and design basis earthquake considerations have been calculated using the following Eq. 5

$$\text{P}\text{G}\text{A}=\frac{2}{3} . \text{S}.\text{Z}.\frac{\text{I}}{\text{R}}$$

where $\frac{\text{I}}{\text{R}}=1$ has been considered for free field liquefaction assessment. S has been considered 1.15 for seismic site class SC and 1.35 for seismic site class SD according to BNBC 2020. Hence, PGA value used in liquefaction evaluation is 0.15 for locations falling under site class SC and 0.18 for locations falling under site class SD.

Even though past studies considered a moment magnitude of 7 for evaluation of liquefaction susceptibility however, recent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment carried out suggested that a magnitude of 8.02 [24] may be generated by the Dauki fault, on the other faults near the Chittagong Tripura fold belt may generate an earthquake of 8.5[25]. However, for our assessment we used a magnitude of 7.5 for estimation of cyclic resistance ratio which is also a function of clean sand equivalent (N₁₆₀) as well as fines content (FC). The following Eq. 6 developed by Cetin [6] has been adopted for CRR evaluation.

$$\text{C}\text{R}\text{R}\left({\text{N}}_{\text{1,60}},{\text{M}}_{\text{W}},{{\sigma }}_{\text{v}}^{{\prime }},\text{F}\text{C},{\text{P}}_{\text{L}}\right)=\text{e}\text{x}\text{p}\left[\frac{\left(\begin{array}{c}{\text{N}}_{\text{1,60}}\bullet \left(1+0.00167\bullet \text{F}\text{C}\right)-27.352\bullet ln\left({\text{M}}_{\text{W}}\right)\\ -3.968\bullet ln\left(\frac{{{\sigma }}_{\text{v}}^{{\prime }}}{{\text{P}}_{\text{a}}}\right)+0.089\bullet FC\\ +16.084+2.96. \bullet {{\Phi }}^{-1}\left({\text{P}}_{\text{L}}\right)\end{array}\right)}{11.771}\right]$$

where P_L = 50% has been considered for deterministic evaluation.

The factor of safety (F_L) is not a sufficient parameter for evaluation of liquefaction and its damage potential at any site. However, the thickness and depth of the liquefiable layer and the factor of safety are very important inputs for damage potential based on liquefaction. Accordingly, we used liquefaction potential index (LPI) based approach to evaluate the intensity of damage for each borehole location as it includes the thickness and depth of the liquefiable layer and factor of safety as inputs. The LPI was originally proposed by Iwasaki [26, 27] to evaluate the potential for liquefaction to cause foundation damage. The LPI assumes that the severity of liquefaction is proportional to the thickness of the liquefied layer; proximity of the liquefied layer from the ground surface; and amount by which the factor of safety (F_L) is less than 1.

$$\text{L}\text{P}\text{I}={\int }_{0}^{\text{z}}\text{F}\left(\text{z}\right). \text{W}\left(\text{z}\right).\text{d}\text{z}$$

Where, F (z) = 1 – FS, for FS < 1.0

F (z) = 0, for FS ≥ 1.0

W (z) = 10–0.5z, for z < 20 m

W (z) = 0, for z > 20

5.3 Development of Site Classification and Liquefaction Hazard Maps

To find out the seismic site class and liquefaction potential in the zones where geotechnical data is not available, special statistical analysis is being done. To perform this, Geo-statistical Analyst tool installed in GIS as an extension has been used for analysis. Geo-statistics is intimately related to interpolation methods but extends far beyond simple interpolation problems to prepare a continuous map [28]. Different statistical and geostatistical approaches have been used in the past to estimate the spatial distribution of soil properties [29]. Classical statistics could not make out the spatial allocation of soil properties at the unsampled locations. Geo-statistics is an efficient method for the study of spatial allocation of soil characteristics and their inconsistency and reducing the variance of assessment error and execution costs. Interpolation is an estimation of a variable at an unmeasured location from observed values at surrounding locations. Inverse distance weighting and several geostatistical methods [30] are generally used for preparing thematic soil maps. For our study, we used Inverse distance weighting (IDW) method to prepare site Vs₃₀, site classification and liquefaction hazard map of Dhaka City.

A seismic site characterization map (Fig. 3). for Dhaka City using Vs₃₀ following provisions of BNBC 2020 [7] was prepared based on the most updated database containing pertinent geotechnical information till to date. The boundaries were delineated considering Vs₃₀ range specified in BNBC2020. The current map (Fig. 4) supersedes the study carried out by Zillur [12] which was developed according NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the USA) guidelines and provisions of Eurocode 8 in absence of local mandates.

In addition, a cumulative frequency distribution curve was plotted considering geotechnical investigation points lying with zones classified as Artificial Fill, Holocene Deposition and Pleistocene Deposition (Fig. 5).

From study it has been observed that the entire study area either falls under seismic site class “SC” or “SD”. According, to BNBC 2020 [7] seismic site class “SD” should be considered in design of infrastructures in absence of adequate site-specific information yielding in surface PGA value of 0.18 according to free field assessment conditions. The seismic site class map [7] generated based to Vs₃₀ distribution showed that a significant amount of area falls under seismic site class “SD” in the south-eastern parts of the city which was previously classified seismic site class “D” as per NEHRP guidelines which is equivalent to site class “SC” according to BNBC 2020.

Considering a threshold value of 180 m/s for shear wave velocity it was observed that 43% of the sites lying within Artificially filled land falls under seismic site class “SD”, whereas the percentage for Holocene and Pleistocene depositions are respectively 19% and 25%.

Based on the liquefaction potential index (LPI) evaluated at each drillhole location, map (Fig. 6) for delineating LPI in unsampled locations within the domain of Dhaka City boundary was generated. Subsequently, based on Iwasaki’s [27] proposed range for very low, low, high and very high susceptibility, boundaries were outlined for each respective zone within the city area. The results showed around 9% of the areas within the city boundary lie in a highly susceptible zone. On the other hand, high, low and very low susceptible zones cover around 32%, 50% and 9% of the city area. Most of the areas underlain by Pleistocene deposition lie within low to very low susceptible areas. Whereas the areas composed of artificial fill and Holocene alluvium lie with high to very highly susceptible liquefaction prone regions.

Cumulative distribution plots for Liquefaction Potential Index were also plotted for different geological conditions. (Figure-7)

According to Holzer [17] threshold value for surface manifestation of liquefaction based on liquefaction potential index (LPI) is considered as 5. The cumulative distribution curve illustrates that 50% of the sites located within the Artificially filled area have LPI values higher than 5.

On the other the percentage is 27% and 22% respectively for Pleistocene and Holocene depositions. The investigation points for Artificial Fill, Holocene deposition and Pleistocene Deposition were 30, 92 and 102 numbers. Even though the liquefaction triggering value for boreholes lying within Pleistocene deposition was slightly higher than the boreholes within the domain of Holocene deposition. It is to be mentioned here that according to Iwasaki [27] zones susceptible to very high liquefaction is considered to have an LPI value of 15 or more. Considering that as a threshold limit for high susceptibility the percentage of for Artificial Fill, Holocene Deposition and Pleistocene Deposition were respectively 36%, 16% and 10%.

Dhaka city has been experiencing a continuous growth starting from pre-Mughal period in the 17th century until now. Even now according to the new detailed area plan (2016–2035) additional areas lying near the periphery of the city boundary have been included as a part of Dhaka Metropolitan Development Plan Area (DMDP). The expansion however has been going on haphazardly where the low-lying areas near the rivers and connected channels have been filled up with dredged sand for infrastructural development. Results of the current study show that areas near the eastern fringes of the city area which is also the cross-passage of some major on-going projects such as Dhaka Metro Rail (Line 1 and Line – 5), Dhaka Amula Demra Expressway as well as residential development projects in Bashundhara and Aftabnagar have a liquefaction potential index of more than 15 coupled with a shear wave velocity of less than 180 m/s which may trigger amplification of PGA value.

Even though current study paves the way for utilization of regional stress reduction factors and code-based provisions for seismic site characterization as well as evaluation of liquefaction potential. However, in case of major infrastructural development it is recommended to carry out seismic site response analysis for determination of site amplification factor and integrate the results in liquefaction evaluation which are prospects for future research. Also, continuous upgradation of the maps related to shear wave velocity distribution and liquefaction potential index is envisaged including updated database with more closely spaced data points for macro scale analysis.

Conflict of Interest: The authors have no conflict of interest.

Funding Source: The research has no funds.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Professor Dr. Zillur Rahman of Dhaka University for sharing the data used in his research. In addition, we are also grateful to Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB), Bangladesh Bridge Authority (BBA) as well as geotechnical investigation companies GIE, FCL, ADC, Geo-Fox, Pro-Soil for sharing data required for carrying out the study.

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Seismic Site Characterization and Liquefaction Susceptibility Assesment of Dhaka City Using Latest Building Code and Updated Liquefaction Evaluation Techniques

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Abstract

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1. Introduction

2. Research Significance

3. Geology And Seismicity Of The Project Area

4. Database Development

5. Analytical Approach & Methodology

5.1 Seismic Site Characterization as per provisions of BNBC 2020

5.2 Evaluation of Liquefaction Susceptibility

5.3 Development of Site Classification and Liquefaction Hazard Maps

6. Results And Discussion

7. Conclusions

Declarations

References

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