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Social Sciences - Article
Giacomo Cacciapaglia
University of Lyon and CNRS IN2P3
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3426-1618
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Epidemic data show the existence of a region of quasi-linear growth (strolling period) of infected cases extending in between waves. We demonstrate that this constitutes evidence for the existence of near time-scale invariance that is neatly encoded via complex fixed points in the epidemic Renormalisation Group approach. As a result we achieve a deeper understanding of multiple wave dynamics and its inter-wave strolling regime. Our results are tested and calibrated against the COVID-19 pandemic data. Because of the simplicity of our approach that is organised around symmetry principles our discovery amounts to a paradigm shift in the way epidemiological data are mathematically modelled.
Keywords
Epidemic data, Strolling Period, Multiple Wave Dynamics
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There is NO Competing Interest.
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A new preprint design is coming!
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Social Sciences - Article
Giacomo Cacciapaglia
University of Lyon and CNRS IN2P3
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3426-1618
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 09 Sep, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Statistical Epidemiology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Epidemic data show the existence of a region of quasi-linear growth (strolling period) of infected cases extending in between waves. We demonstrate that this constitutes evidence for the existence of near time-scale invariance that is neatly encoded via complex fixed points in the epidemic Renormalisation Group approach. As a result we achieve a deeper understanding of multiple wave dynamics and its inter-wave strolling regime. Our results are tested and calibrated against the COVID-19 pandemic data. Because of the simplicity of our approach that is organised around symmetry principles our discovery amounts to a paradigm shift in the way epidemiological data are mathematically modelled.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
There is NO Competing Interest.
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