Food prices in a pandemic: Global data show higher costs for nutritious food groups

: The COVID pandemic has cut lives, livelihoods and supply chains, leading to price spikes for some foods and decline for others. We compare monthly retail food prices in up to 180 countries through February 2021, and find significant rises for more nutritious food groups with higher case counts. Prices by food group complement data on farm commodity prices and overall consumer price indexes, and can help guide policy for resilience and response to shocks. This study conducted under Food Prices for Nutrition with support from a predecessor project on Changing Access to Nutritious Diets in Africa and South Asia (CANDASA) We are particularly grateful to our program officer, Shelly Sundberg, for permitting reallocation of travel funds to this work during the pandemic. Plans for this work were preregistered with the RECOVR registry at https://www.poverty-action.org/recovr-study/covid-19-disruptions-and-resilience-retail-food-prices-around-world. We also thank Anna Herforth and the many collaborators in our larger ongoing project, and are for the United States Agriculture-led


Global data show higher costs for nutritious food groups 2 3
COVID-19 has reached all countries of the world, destroying lives and livelihoods at 4 unprecedented speed and scale. News services have reported food price spikes and temporary 5 shortages, but agricultural production and food distribution has continued to function without the 6 extremes of food scarcity or government rationing seen during wartime or natural disasters with 7 comparable levels of mass casualties 1 . This article reports on a compilation of national data on 8 consumer prices before and during the pandemic, offering an updated view of global food 9 systems with distinctive implications for policy response and market monitoring.

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Previous analyses of world food markets typically focus on agricultural commodities sold in bulk 12 for regional and international trade, or countries' overall consumer price index (CPI). Global To inform policies regarding global consumers' access to diverse foods on retail markets, we 21 compiled all available sources of consumer price data from around the world, following a 22 protocol registered in May 2020 9 . In this study we report global average levels of consumer price

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A wide range of evidence reveals that COVID-19 has led to dramatic changes in food demand 34 and supply, but has so far done little to slow agricultural production on the farm 11-13 . The disease 35 emerged and spread first in cities, transmitted from person to person through close contact 36 especially indoors, and was slow to reach farmers whose physical isolation limits exposure to the 37 virus. In more urban areas, fear of infection led individuals to limit their contacts and led many 38 institutions and governments to close public spaces, driving consumers away from restaurants 39 and cafeterias towards purchase of packaged and retail items 14 . The sudden switch to food at 40 home led to brief price spikes and low inventory as consumers stocked up, and some farmers 41 were forced to dump perishable items such as milk, vegetables and fruits that could not be 42 repurposed for individual sale.

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As the pandemic proceeds, it has become clear that its most lasting effects on food systems have  Overall food prices and inflation 56 To identify change in retail food prices relative to all other goods and services, we analyzed all 57 available monthly data on each country's overall CPI and their food CPI, including the ratio of 58 food to all prices which we call the food price index (FPI). Each country's CPI and FPI is 59 computed over many prices observed at diverse locations, intended to be nationally 60 representative average weighted by expenditure shares for each item.

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The global averages shown in Figure 1 are set to 100 in January 2019 so that cumulative changes 63 since then are clearly visible, along with the 95% confidence interval (CI) around the global 64 mean for each month. Panel A reveals that the CPI and food CPI rose at almost exactly the same 65 rate from January through October 2019, with no change in the ratio of food prices to the prices 66 of all goods and services (FPI). That FPI ratio rose slightly in November and December before a 67 statistically significant rise from January through May to about 3% above its 2019 level, and then 68 sustained at a range between 2% and 3% through February 2021. Those movements in retail 69 prices during the pandemic clearly differ greatly from the FAO's global Food Price Index for 70 traded agricultural commodities that fluctuates widely during this period.

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Panel B of Figure 1 shows the relationship between food prices and the spread of COVID-19,  Figure 1 shows that in the months before COVID-19, trends in price levels for food (FCPI) and 79 for all goods and services (CPI) were similar, but then places and times with higher cumulative 80 case counts had significantly higher levels of FCPI than CPI. The ratio between them (FPI) 81 indicates that food prices could reach more than 5% above the general price level once 82 cumulative cases reach above 8,000 per million people. These are countries' official national 83 statistics, using methods that could potentially be improved with further research. Most

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Food price monitoring has long focused on wholesale prices for a few commodities, but can now 138 be extended to retail prices of all items needed for a healthy diet. This article demonstrates the 139 feasibility of reporting month-to-month changes across all major food groups, using publicly   Figure S1).

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Individual item prices 188 In the analysis, we used early warning system (EWS) data from three different organizations -the  The country and item coverage described in this annex reveals some risk of selection bias in 216 global averages. To the extent that non-reporting is most common for the places and food items 217 whose supply chains are most stressed, leading to scarcity and high prices, our global averages 218 over the observed data are a lower bound that understates the actual rise in food prices associated 219 with COVID-19. Future work will examine patterns of non-reporting, as well as changes in 220 observed prices, with respect to a variety of country characteristics including COVID-19 221 exposure and policy responses. Fig.1