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Background Obesity and physical activity rates are known predictors of disability and functional limitations, and, in turn, use of health care. In this study, we aim to explore whether obesity and physical inactivity also are significant risk factors for future long-term care needs (both informal and formal care).
Methods We use multinomial logistic regression analysis on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) respondents aged 65 and older between 2002 and 2011. Selection issues are tackled using the rich set of control variables, exploiting the data’s longitudinal structure and accounting for loss to follow-up (including death). Control factors include functional limitations (related to ADLs, iADLs and mobility)) and specific existing health conditions, notably diabetes, high blood pressure and cardio-vascular diseases.
Results We find that obese older people are 25% more likely to receive informal or privately paid care in two years’ time, but this does not hold for formal care. People who are physically active are 38% less likely to be using any care in two years’ time, with the strongest effect for formal care use. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the results are not driven by either prediabetes or any link between obesity and subjective health, depression, or unobserved heterogeneity.
Conclusions This study indicates obesity’s importance in future care costs and provides rationale for promoting a healthier weight for economic benefits, in relation not only to health care, but also long-term care.
Keywords
long-term care, elderly people, formal care, social care, informal care, BMI, physical activity, obesity
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CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at BMC Geriatrics.
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 07 May, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 May, 2020
Editor invited
On 06 May, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 29 Oct, 2019
Version 1
Posted 05 Nov, 2019
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 18 Feb, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 13 Feb, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 13 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 28 Jan, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 28 Jan, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 27 Nov, 2019
Submission checks complete
On 29 Oct, 2019
Editor assigned
On 28 Oct, 2019
Editor invited
On 27 Oct, 2019
First submitted
On 25 Oct, 2019
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Subject Areas
Geriatrics & Gerontology
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A new preprint design is coming!
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See the published version of this preprint at BMC Geriatrics.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research article
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at BMC Geriatrics.
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 07 May, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 May, 2020
Editor invited
On 06 May, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 29 Oct, 2019
Version 1
Posted 05 Nov, 2019
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 18 Feb, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 13 Feb, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 13 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 28 Jan, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 28 Jan, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 27 Nov, 2019
Submission checks complete
On 29 Oct, 2019
Editor assigned
On 28 Oct, 2019
Editor invited
On 27 Oct, 2019
First submitted
On 25 Oct, 2019
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Geriatrics & Gerontology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at BMC Geriatrics.
Background Obesity and physical activity rates are known predictors of disability and functional limitations, and, in turn, use of health care. In this study, we aim to explore whether obesity and physical inactivity also are significant risk factors for future long-term care needs (both informal and formal care).
Methods We use multinomial logistic regression analysis on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) respondents aged 65 and older between 2002 and 2011. Selection issues are tackled using the rich set of control variables, exploiting the data’s longitudinal structure and accounting for loss to follow-up (including death). Control factors include functional limitations (related to ADLs, iADLs and mobility)) and specific existing health conditions, notably diabetes, high blood pressure and cardio-vascular diseases.
Results We find that obese older people are 25% more likely to receive informal or privately paid care in two years’ time, but this does not hold for formal care. People who are physically active are 38% less likely to be using any care in two years’ time, with the strongest effect for formal care use. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the results are not driven by either prediabetes or any link between obesity and subjective health, depression, or unobserved heterogeneity.
Conclusions This study indicates obesity’s importance in future care costs and provides rationale for promoting a healthier weight for economic benefits, in relation not only to health care, but also long-term care.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
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