Background Obesity and physical activity rates are known predictors of disability and functional limitations, and, in turn, use of health care. In this study, we aim to explore whether obesity and physical inactivity also are significant risk factors for future long-term care needs (both informal and formal care).
Methods We use multinomial logistic regression analysis on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) respondents aged 65 and older between 2002 and 2011. Selection issues are tackled using the rich set of control variables, exploiting the data’s longitudinal structure and accounting for loss to follow-up (including death). Control factors include functional limitations (related to ADLs, iADLs and mobility)) and specific existing health conditions, notably diabetes, high blood pressure and cardio-vascular diseases.
Results We find that obese older people are 25% more likely to receive informal or privately paid care in two years’ time, but this does not hold for formal care. People who are physically active are 38% less likely to be using any care in two years’ time, with the strongest effect for formal care use. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the results are not driven by either prediabetes or any link between obesity and subjective health, depression, or unobserved heterogeneity.
Conclusions This study indicates obesity’s importance in future care costs and provides rationale for promoting a healthier weight for economic benefits, in relation not only to health care, but also long-term care.