Climate Change And Agriculture Management – Western Balkan Region Analysis

Background: The aim of this paper is to analyze the possibilities of the agricultural sector of the Western Balkans, to assess compliance with the European Green Deal, which provides for the implementation of activities, which should enable the transition to the green sector and climate change mitigation. This paper is the rst scientic paper to analyze agriculture and climate change in light of the EU Green Deal for the Western Balkan territory.


Background
The Western Balkans region covers an area of about 208.000 km 2 and includes Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and the Republic of Northern Macedonia. In this climate, coastal subtropical to moderately continental climates is represented.Thanks to this climate, there is a great variety in the vegetation cover,which is considered the natural wealth of this region.With this in mind, in all WB countries, agriculture is an important sector with a signi cant share in the gross domestic product (~ 10%).However, despite the richness of natural resources, agri-food systems in all WB countries face a number of challenges. Among them, climate change has a signi cant impact.Because, in addition to agriculture, the economic sector and forestry are important, WB economies are considered medium to highly sensitive to climate change. Figure 1. shows the climatology of the Western Balkans region with prominent coastal areas (marked in red), mountainous (marked blue), and areas with temperate and moderately warm climates (marked orange). The areas with the most annual precipitation are marked in green. The right panel shows the average annual temperature for the Western Balkans region for the period from 1961 to 2100 [1]. The "moving average" approach was used to predict average temperatures. Climate change has been recorded for several decades and is a consequence of intensive industrialization and human activities [2].
Urbanization, deforestation, and the burning of fossil fuels (primarily coal) are the main causes of accelerated and unexpected climate change. It is predicted that the average summer temperature in the Western Balkan region could rise to 7.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which would lead to the disappearance of small glaciers within a few decades. This increase in temperature poses a risk not only to agriculture but also to the safety of the population. Further predictions for the region are that with the warming of 4°C, precipitation will decrease by 20-30%, and the frequency of dry days will increase by 20%. Reduced water availability in the summer months can also be a particular problem, while annual river runoff could be reduced by more than 45% by 2100. There are also great risks of winter and spring oods, especially along the rivers of large rivers such as the Danube, Sava, and Tisza. It is important to note that the average annual production of large hydropower plants could be reduced by 15% and 20% for small power plants, respectively.In addition to all the above, there are also great risks to human health, therefore, an increase in temperature can lead to an increase in the number of deaths by about 20%.
Reducing damage and losses caused by climate change is not only environmental but increasingly also a matter of security, survival of natural resources, and economic development. Reducing the harmful impact of man on climate change and its impact on economic and social development is possible by measuring, monitoring and reporting on the current impact, which is also the subject of regulation of the

Results And Discussion
In this paper, the Results and Discussion are divided into four parts: Impact of climate change on Western Balkan's agriculture which provides the most signi cant data related to the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Western Balkans; EU and Climate Change, EU Green Deal and its implementation and a signi cant role in the ght against climate change; Climate change management -whose main aims is management in order to achieve stabilization, deceleration, and prevention of climate change and Response to climate change in the Western Balkans which covers activities to reduce the impact of climate change is described. Opportunities for achieving energy e ciency and modernization of infrastructure in order to achieve a cleaner, more e cient, and more competitive growth are also described.
Impact of climate change on Western Balkans agriculture Climate change has a great impact on the agricultural sector, especially on crop production, livestock, and sheries [3]. In Western Balkans, almost half of the territory is used for agriculture, of which 19% is pasture and 29% is arable land, while 18-58% of the workforce is related to this sector [4]. When it comes to eld and vegetable production, there is stress on plants caused by poor agro-ecological conditions and the inability to apply adequate agricultural practices and technology. The result is reduced yields and product quality, which among other things leads to irregularities in the supply chain of raw materials for the food industry. Also, these changes lead to the appearance of new pests, diseases, and weeds. The problem is microorganisms, plants, and animals that often become invasive and harmful in the new area.
Climate change is well tolerated by weeds because they adapt more easily to changes in the environment [3]. The appearance of weeds (such as ragweed) causes allergies, leads to changes in vegetation and seed reserves in the soil and soil micro orayield reduction and environmental pollution. Compared to conventional production, sustainable agriculture is more exposed to the effects of climate change due to the complexity of different biological, physical, and agrotechnical measures on which it is based.
Therefore, Agenda 21 of the UNCED (UN Conference on Environment and Development) action plan emphasizes the need for adjustment in agricultural, environmental, and macroeconomic policy, in order to create conditions for sustainable agriculture and rural development. Agricultural biodiversity is extremely important and is the result of the interaction between the external environment, genetic resources, and the natural resource management system (land and water). Climate change also affects the extinction of certain species, genes, and the reduction or loss of agrobiodiversity. Also, numerous autochthonous and old varieties were endangered, which were adapted to certain areas and ecological conditions. The loss of ora and fauna can lead to permanent changes in one ecosystem and serious disruption of biogeochemical processes. What is an additional problem is the fact that the crops in Western Balkans are poorly irrigated and that the storage capacities are insu cient.In particular, the increasing occurrence of drought, which mainly occurs in the summer months, has been identi ed as a key risk for Western Balkans agriculture [5]. Water is a basic natural resource in plant production because it plays a signi cant role in germination, growth, transpiration, the transformation of starch into sugar, and the absorption of nutrients [6]. The reduction in precipitation poses the greatest danger to the agricultural sector, especially due to the fact that the demand for food at the global level is increasing. Figure 2. shows the most common natural hazards that cause large losses in crop and livestock production. It is important to note that there are no accurate and reliable data on the impact of drought on the Western Balkans agricultural sector. On the other hand, such data are extremely important because they are used to measure the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction investments.
Given that precipitation reduction is expected due to climate change, water management will be essential for the stability and productivity of agricultural production. Regional analysis showed that extreme temperature changes in 2011 led to crop failure due to frost damage [8]. Indirectly, drought has a signi cant impact on the economy, prices, and food supply, bearing in mind that the agricultural sector suffers the greatest consequences. For example, if the supply of a certain vegetable decreases, and the demand still exists, or increases, there will be an increase in the price of the product. An example of this is the drought in Tajikistan (2007-2008) which reduced yields by over 40% [9], which led to 2.2 million people being malnourished [10]. On the other hand, drought directly increases the risk of re.In the period from 1998 to 2008, 853 forest res broke out in the Republic of Serbia, covering an area of 16.357 ha. The damage caused by the res was estimated at 40 million Euros, and more than 5.200 ha were completely burned [11]. The existence of a connection between drought and pests has also been determined due to the creation of optimal conditions for their development. There are some diseases that are directly caused by the stress of plants caused by drought, such as root rot, rot and wilting of trees, and greater susceptibility to amingos. Stressed woody plants can experience the invasion of woody insects such as bronze birch, black stem, and other bark beetles [12]. In addition, drought can reduce the competitiveness of indigenous plants and increase the chances of weed invasion and thus negatively affect crop production [13]. According to the international CRED-EMDAT disaster, database oods occurred most frequently in Western Balkans resulting in signi cant economic losses. However, the negative impact of drought should not be underestimated although accurate data are often lacking due to the lack of systematic and comprehensive data collection. As for Albania, it is estimated that more than 3 million people were affected by the drought between 1989 and 1991, which is considered one of the most signi cant disasters that have cost this country's economy $ 24 million [14]. The energy crisis that led to power outages in 2007 was the result of droughtsbecause the production of the Fierza hydropower plant was lower by 33% [15]. Drought is predicted to have a more negative impact on agriculture than oods and landslides. Different areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina are prone to drought, especially between June and September. Some of the most signi cant droughts that affected this country were in the period from 2002 (agricultural production was reduced by 60%), 2003 (agricultural damage of 200 million USD), and 2007 (destroyed more than 40% of eld production, 250 ha affected by forest res, which resulted in an increase in food prices). In 2012, a drought hit the Western Balkans, especially Bosnia and Herzegovina. This has reduced cereal and vegetable yields by up to 70%, and corn production was most affected. Given the large primary losses in barley, corn, soybeans, clover, and beans, livestock production decreased, as did meat supply to the domestic market, which increased food prices and reduced agricultural exports. The total losses of this drought amounted to over 1 billion USD [16]. Frequent and intense droughts adversely affect yield quality, income costs of preventing and controlling the spread of diseases, insects, and weeds as well as irrigation rates. Also, it is estimated that the agricultural sector was most affected by the drought in 2015 when water balance anomalies were 100 mm below the long-term average [17]. However, accurate data on speci c damage and losses are missing.The Republic of Northern Macedonia is considered to be among the driest countries in Europe. 106.25 million Euros, while for drought they were around 500 million Euros [23]. These data indicate that the impact of drought on agriculture is much greater compared to oods. However, it should be noted that due to insu cient available data on losses and damages in agriculture caused by drought, one can only speak at the level of assessment.

EU and Climate Change, EU Green Deal
Climate change is one of the key issues of the EU, and the adoption of the EU Green Deal speaks in favor of that. The aim of this agreement is to reduce the harmful impact on natural resources and emissions into the soil, water, and air. It also represents a strategic framework according to which the challenges of climate change and environmental protection are transformed into development potentials. The EU expects that carbon neutrality will be achieved by 2050, and Western Balkan's assistance is expected in that [24]. Starting in 2021, the introduction of carbon taxes on products (iron, cement, and aluminum) imported into the EU is also expected, and with the aim of expanding to other economic branches and activities. Thanks to this initiative, the competitiveness of products coming from countries without a clear ght against climate change is reduced. The EU Green Deal is based on: 1) climate action involving decarbonization, energy, and mobility; 2) circular economy with special emphasis on waste, recycling and e cient use of resources and sustainable production; 3) biodiversity aimed at protecting and restoring natural resources; 4) reduction of water, soil, and air pollution and 5) sustainable food systems and rural areas. The basic driver that will enable all of the above is digitalization in accordance with the concept of the double green and digital transition.It is also necessary to implement concrete actions supported by appropriate mechanisms and nancial instruments. Five Western Balkan partners have rati ed the Paris Agreement, pledging to take measures to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Climate neutrality will have a signi cant impact on EU bilateral relations and accession negotiations with the Western Balkans. One of the important tools for creating economic stimulus and helping to mitigate the transition to climate neutrality may be the early involvement of the Western Balkans in emissions trading. All these changes will require the support and involvement of citizens. According to research from 2019, only 65% of Western Balkans citizens consider climate change a threat [25], unlike EU citizens, where 93% consider climate change a serious problem [26]. For example, the citizens of the Republic of Northern Macedonia will most likely hold the state responsible (31%) while Albanian citizens believe that companies are most responsible for combating climate change (27%). An interesting fact is that Montenegrins believe that they are personally responsible for climate change, compared to the representatives of any other economy. It is important to point out that the European Climate Pact could be a means of raising awareness among citizens.

Climate change management
There are different approaches to managing climate change risks, which can be divided into four categories: 1) mitigation in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; 2) adaptation, which means increasing society's ability to cope with climate change; 3) geoengineering which implies additional manipulations of the soil system, in order to reduce the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and 4) expanding the knowledge base on climate systems, which can help in proactive risk management [27]. Of particular importance are research, observations, scienti c assessments, as well as the development of technology, that can help identify risks and opportunities associated with climate systems. Expanding the knowledge base enables policymakers to better understand, select and improve the management of certain risks. Thanks to such an approach, e ciency is increased, and new possibilities for climate protection are discovered, or reducing the risk of climate change. It should be noted that climate goals can be achieved with the active participation of all state bodies [28]. Although local governments are paying more and more attention to climate change, the problem is that their policies focus on mitigating, and not on climate change adaptation strategies [29]. In order to respond to climate change as successfully as possible, adaptation is necessary which includes planning for climate impacts, building resilience to those impacts, and increasing society's ability to respond and recover [27]. Adaptation policy may include various regulations such as reduction of harmful impact on the soil, disaster recovery, impact assessment for critical systems and resources (water, biological systems, agriculture, and infrastructure), constant monitoring, and efforts to reduce air pollution, soil loss, and degradation. When it comes to Western Balkans countries, the exchange of expertise and division of responsibilities at the regional level are the best measures for capacity building and identi cation of measures for climate change management. In order to ensure the health of the population, safety, and quality of life, including the development of warning systems, timely dissemination of information and general preparedness of public opinion as well as the readiness of state institutions to manage disaster risk is necessary.

Response to climate change in the Western Balkans
In order to reduce the harmful effects of climate change, Western Balkans are already taking appropriate measures, including cooperation with several development partners. These measures include managing risks to water resources and agriculture, as well as using opportunities to achieve energy e ciency and modernize infrastructure. Table 1 shows the laws adopted so far, as well as measures to reduce the harmful effects of climate change on Western Balkan agriculture. Rehabilitation of drainage and irrigation infrastructure. Flood risk reduction and water resources management.

Albania
The Law on Climate Change has been adopted which represents the legal basis for the adoption of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for the period from 2021 to 2030.
Afforestation and barriers to protect arable land from erosion are crucial.Introduction of drip irrigation systems and modernization of existing systems.

Bosnia and Herzegovina
The regulation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its legislative framework prevents the launch of a comprehensive strategy to combat climate change.
High priority investments with a goal of rehabilitation and modernization of irrigation systems. . The aim of this center is to improve drought preparedness and undertake vulnerability and risk assessments, as well as establishment of an early warning system to reduce the effects of drought. The DriDanube project is funded by the EU and aims to strengthen the capacity of the Danube region and improve the response to drought emergencies. In addition to nine EU countries, Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro) are also participants. It is important to note that Western Balkans emphasize the importance of enhanced cooperation between decision-makers, the scienti c community, investors, the economy, and farmers. Continuous monitoring and reporting on soil moisture and crop condition are key in the ght against drought. On the other hand, a major Western Balkan stimulus is needed to fully meet the challenge of climate change. Investment policy decisions will signi cantly affect the intensity of carbon emissions and climate change in general.Bearing in mind the geographical and economic interconnectedness of Western Balkan, many issues related to adaptability, water resources management, and energy infrastructure will be a particular challenge.

Conclusions
Agriculture is an inseparable part of the environment and as such, it is affected by all meteorological, water, or land anomalies. When it comes to climate change, all segments of agricultural production will be endangered, especially crop production. The negative impact on plant and livestock production will also affect the food industry, and thus the regularity in the supply chain of raw materials. All this leads to economic and social insecurity. Therefore, the implementation of the Western Balkan Green Agenda will require signi cant public and private funding, both nationally, regionally, and internationally. Negotiations on external instruments are underway within the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF, 2021-2027) with the Council and the European Parliament. In order to ll a signi cant investment gap, it is necessary that in addition to public funding from the EU, there is also private funding. Finally, education is key to preserving the environment and must include a curriculumand acquiring skills that will enable the implementation of the Green Agenda. Combating climate change can only be successful with joint efforts and change in all aspects of lifeand will require the most leadership at all levels of society.

Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate Not applicable.

Consent for publication
Not applicable.

Availability of data and materials
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
DR prepared the concept of the study, participated in data collection, analysis, and interpretation of the results. All authors were involved in drafting the manuscript and approved the nal manuscript.